Predictions: The 2016 Box Office

We're now into May 2016, and it's not quite late enough in the year to be predicting my other favorite thing which is awards (I'll be starting that in June/July), but it is a good time to start predicting the tops and bottoms of the box office for this year's major wide releases. I usually like to do it right at the start of the summer movie season because we now have a fairly good idea of where the money's flowing this year, but there's still some room for surprise. After all, last year, Jurassic World was projected in May to have a pretty healthy opening only to be undercut by some of the summer's other blockbusters, and then turned out to be the fourth highest-grossing film of all-time. So, in this post, I'll be trying to predict the possible top 10 highest-grossing films of the year, counting worldwide grosses because why shouldn't you, then some of the possible upsets, and then just some general thoughts about all of those things. 2015 was a really fun year to watch box office-wise just due to the sheer number of unexpected or underestimated hits (not many people thought that we'd see a third film break the $2 billion mark), and 2016 is turning out to be equally fascinating not only because of the amount of money being made, but also the direction of the money. Anyway, let's get into this shit.

My Predicted Top 10

#1 - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

While my proposed #2 also has a very good chance of absolutely destroying the 2016 box office, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that Star Wars will reign for the second of possibly three years in a row (I'd be surprised if Episode VIII makes less than $1.6 billion). The hype for the series is real after the arguable cultural landmark that was The Force Awakens, although the fact that this is an anthology film lacking Harrison Ford and Carrie Fisher might tell some non-ardent fans to sit this one out. On the other hand, perhaps audiences will share my curiosity in the first Star Wars film outside the main series. That, and it's coming out in December with little competition for many weeks, meaning its legs could be impressive. And, y'know, it's fucking Star Wars. If they show a glimpse of Vader in the next trailer, watch out.
Release Date: December 16th
My Predicted Gross: $1.55 billion

#2 - Captain America: Civil War

The first movie in Phase Three of the behemoth Marvel Cinematic Universe drops this weekend, and has already made a killing in Europe, taking in just over $200 million in its first week overseas. As of a few weeks ago, Civil War was tracking at a minimum $175 million opening weekend stateside, which has only grown since, with most trackers predicting it will just barely break a $200 million domestic opening weekend, which is a very exclusive club. This could very well make Age of Ultron numbers. Detractors of this theory, some of whom maintain that this film might not even break $1 billion, have pointed out the relatively low gross of the previous Captain America films. The problem I see with that is that this isn't just a Captain America film - we've got Iron Man, Hawkeye, Ant-Man, the introduction of Black Panther. This is essentially Avengers 2.5, and fucking Spider-Man is in it! That, and it's getting great reception from critics and audiences alike, which should lead to great word of mouth to keep it afloat amid the heavy competition in the latter weeks of May. It should be a nice palate cleanser after Batman v Superman.
Release Date: May 6th
My Predicted Gross: $1.4 billion

#3 - Finding Dory

Finding Nemo is the second highest-grossing Pixar film behind Toy Story 3, the latter film teaching us that drawn-out nostalgia fares well for audiences, at least in America. This will probably either just break $1 billion or go a little beyond that. The problems: it has some stiff competition after opening weekend (Independence Day, The BFG, The Secret Life of Pets) that could do some damage to its legs, and it needs to be really good to hold audience interest. Monsters University managed to gross a hefty amount with newcomer talent and lukewarm audience response, but Finding Dory has the majority of the first film's original crew returning and is a much more precious property to try and get right. I'm gonna give Pixar the benefit of the doubt(?) here on the wings of Inside Out's success and say that Dory is gonna be the fifth animated film to break the big B, even if by a hair.
Release Date: June 17th
My Predicted Gross: $1.1 billion

#4 - The Jungle Book

This one's tricky to place. Numbers 3, 4, and 5 on this list are almost certain to cross the billion-dollar mark; it's just a matter of by how much and in what order. The Jungle Book looks like a fairly safe bet for such a milestone, though. After a prediction-shattering opening weekend (well-deserved and elevated by positive critical reception and IMAX viewings), the film has shown amazing legs in the last few weeks, managing to keep its week-by-week drops under 40%. I'm predicting a 45-50% drop this weekend with the opening of Civil War, but its more kid-friendly nature should keep it above water in the first few weeks of the actual summer movie season. It already sits at nearly $700 million worldwide, is doing phenomenally overseas, and hasn't opened in some big Asian markets yet, so it looks like this will fall squarely at $1 billion. It could very potentially outgross Finding Dory worldwide, but Civil War's huge tracking numbers give me reservations, so I'm saying it comes just under.
Release Date: April 15th
My Predicted Gross: $1.07 billion

#5 - Zootopia

Arguably the most surprising film of the year is faring incredibly well at the box office, but its run is coming to an end. Zootopia is still in the top 10 in its ninth weekend, so it's proven amazing staying power throughout the spring even in the US, though I'm sure once Captain America and the X-Men come in it'll be all but unavailable in most domestic theaters. But the film has fared extraordinarily well overseas and currently sits at around $930 million worldwide after nearly two months of release, and has just opened in Japan, where it's expected to stay in theaters for months. I'm saying this one could creep up to $1 billion or juuuuuust under. We could have two animated billionaires in one year for the first time, folks.
Release Date: March 4th
My Predicted Gross: $1.01 billion

#6 - Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice

This movie is a fucking anomaly, I swear to God. This film had one of the biggest worldwide opening weekends of all-time, and ended up only just barely making a profit. With a total budget amounting to somewhere in the $400 million range, this film's total gross so far of around $860 million worldwide is hard to call a success, especially considering that this was the DC Extended Universe's tentpole start-up film that Warner Bros oversold as a thoughtful groundbreaking thrill ride that would easily take in over $1 billion. With the release of Civil War, it's bowing out of most American theaters and capping out at around $875 million. Still a ton of money, and obviously it's still in the top 10 so it's a success, but when you have a drop in interest of over seventy percent after one week of bad word of mouth, it may be time to rethink your decision to let Zack Snyder the next two biggest movies in your franchise. Also, fucking Deadpool outgrossed this movie in America. Isn't that nutty? If you'd said that would happen three months ago people would've thought you were crazy.
Release Date: March 25th
My Predicted Gross: $875 million

#7 - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

It's not a Harry Potter movie, but it's a Harry Potter movie. And Harry Potter makes fuckin' bank. And the advertising for this film has already been totally playing up the HP connections. And it looks like a generally fun time. The generally lucrative release time of Thanksgiving and some light December competition should make for a healthy gross for the start of Harry Potter 0.5.
Release Date: November 18th
My Predicted Gross: $800 million

#8 - Deadpool

This movie is just closing out, and it looks like it's coming in at just under $800 million worldwide. Pretty decent for a fringe movie that was pinned as "risky" and released in early February. And was also filled with swearing and gore and pegging. The new highest-grossing R-rated film of all-time will probably enjoy a cozy spot toward the bottom of this year's top 10.
Release Date: February 12th
My Predicted Gross: $780 million

#9 - Suicide Squad

Lack of faith in the DCEU may hurt this film, but it's coming out in August with little competition in its coming weeks, which could have a Guardians of the Galaxy effect. It's also being advertised as considerably more fun than Man of Sadness and Murderman v. Captain Hypocrite so who knows? I'm saying it makes in the mid-700 range.
Release Date: August 5th
My Predicted Gross: $750 million

#10 - Independence Day: Resurgence

This movie is being released amid a pretty crowded summer release schedule right at the tail end of June, but people like their throwbacks to the 90s nowadays, so I think it'll do decently for its first few weekends in the US. Where I'm guessing the majority of this film will score is overseas. Mindless but exciting American-directed action with little dialogue to translate always does very well in foreign markets (see also: the Transformers series). Its lackluster performance stateside will most likely hurt its overall gross though.
Release Date: June 24th
My Predicted Gross: $680 million

The Possible Upsets for the Top 10

Moana (November 23rd) - Disney's on a roll, and it's supposed to have some bomb-ass music. But its competition is crowded and we already have a good number of animated giants this year.
Alice Through the Looking Glass (May 27th) - This one and X-Men: Apocalypse both come out in the same weekend, and both are continuations of possible franchises. Days of Future Past grossed just under $750 million a few years ago, and the original Alice grossed over $1 billion. However, their mutual popularity I think will end up cancelling each other out and giving them each middling grosses. If either of them catch on with positive word of mouth, watch out though. (Alice also has the added benefit of IMAX 3D being a bigger selling point)
Doctor Strange (November 4th) - Bad idea to bet against Marvel at this point. Any film of theirs making under $600 million worldwide at this point is basically impossible, so if it doesn't break the top 10, it'll be just under it. Heavy competition could break it after opening weekend, but people love Betterbeard Crabblesnatch and magic.
Ghostbusters (July 15th) - I have no idea how this movie will do. It will either gross big because of positive word of mouth or people seeing it out of spite, or perhaps online social justice activists will get perfect thinkpiece material by having it bomb, or at least under-perform. I'm guessing it cracks $400 million.
The BFG (July 1st) - If it's really great. Spielberg hasn't had a box office smash in a while, but his films always do well, and this one's got that old-school Spielberg magic oozing from it based on the trailers. 3D tickets should boost it as well, but the competition is tough, and people overall might take silly animals and espionage over early-80s whimsy.


So, it seems that by almost everyone's estimation, half or more of the top 10 highest-grossing films of the year will be released by Disney and their affiliates. Say what you will about Disney creating a cultural monopoly. As long as they keep producing good, entertaining films that people want to see, I warmly welcome our mouse overlords. Shower me with tie-in comics and toys, Bob Iger, so long as your four hundred Marvel and Star Wars movies are fun to watch.

That's all for now. Check back later this week for my Civil War review.