89th Academy Awards - Winner Predictions

Apparently this blog is strictly an Oscars predictions site now. I always begin every post with an apology that I haven't been keeping up on reviews, but at this point it should be expected behavior. I will get to them eventually; my personal life has been pretty busy the last few months.

And in all the confusion, I completely forgot that the Oscars are this Sunday and I haven't posted my official predictions for them yet. We have all the relevant guilds and precursor awards done at this point, and there's not really much of anything that could happen within the next four days that could change where I stand on most of these, barring a discovery that the entire cast of La La Land supports dogfighting or something. I'll be doing things a little differently this time format wise - rather than highlight each category individually, I'll be simply giving a quick synopsis of each type of category split up into a few sections (picture, writing/directing, acting, aural/visual technicals, animation, documentary, shorts, and foreign). This will save time and get things right to the point. After that bit, I will have the full list of my predictions for each category with no additional commentary, shown with four different identifiers - "Will Win", "Could Win", "Should Win" (in my opinion of course), and "Should've Been Here". Let's get into it.

Picture

The general consensus seems to be that La La Land will sweep the Oscars to some extent, now that it's been nominated for a record-tying 14 nominations. I'll comment on the pointless arguments being tossed around about La La Land at a later date, but needless to say a lot of people are confused as to why this movie is getting such amazing attention even though it's not an absolutely air-tight or groundbreaking musical. As someone who loved La La Land (it's still probably my favorite of the year), I'm of course defensive of it, but you'll notice that I have Moonlight in the "should win" line for Best Picture below.

La La Land was definitely my personal favorite movie of last year, given that I think it's excellently made and the subject matter spoke to me a bit more on a personal level, but I do believe Moonlight deserves Best Picture, and the reason actually has nothing to do with politics like many defenses of it I've read. I actually think it's kind of over-simplified to pare down Moonlight's genuine merits to its identity politics as the main reason for why it should win awards, because it's an almost perfect film in my estimation. Its subject matter specifically may be dealing with a very niche audience, but it is written, directed, and acted brilliantly enough that its themes are universal and its emotional impact is palpable. Still, I loved La La Land as well and will be happy to see it probably win this Sunday, and think pretty much all of its projected wins are at least defensible. It may be relatively simple, idyllic, primarily white, and centers around the artists and movie buffs that the Academy loves to honor, but it's a fantastic film made with love and care.

As for the other nominees, the lineup was close to what I'd figured, though the inclusion of Lion still kind of baffles me, not for any reason of the film's quality but because of how little I heard about it until the second it was nominated for a ton of awards. Having now seen Hidden Figures too, I'm not sure I'd count it among the best films of last year, but it has a great cast and is entertaining. Hell or High Water was a pleasant surprise, as someone who enjoyed it more than most regular audiences, it seems. Manchester and Arrival have extremely outside shots.

Directing and Writing

Damien Chazelle took home the Directors Guild of America Award for La La Land, which historically is a fairly surefire predictor for the Oscar winner in the Best Director category. Barry Jenkins could have a come-from-behind win (and become the first black Best Director winner in Oscar history) if the Academy chooses to really go hard for Moonlight, which is fairly unlikely but not impossible by any means. I can't see much of an argument being made for any of the other directing nominees, but Lonergan has goodwill and Manchester is beloved by many, so maybe in Bizarro World it could happen.

As for the writing categories, the differences in designation of Moonlight as original vs. adapted has made guessing these two categories annoyingly difficult. Moonlight took home the WGA Award for Best Original Screenplay this week, but is nominated as an Adapted Screenplay for the Oscars, going against the WGA Adapted winner, Arrival. Considering it's historically safe to err on the side of the winning script regardless of designation, I'd say Moonlight has a better shot over Arrival for Adapted, which leaves the Original category wide open. La La Land could come in for the win considering how many other awards it'll be getting (and because it's not badly written at all), but it's incredibly uncommon for musicals to win screenplay awards. That, and Kenneth Lonergan has a much longer history and better rapport with the writers' branch, especially because of his history in theater, so I have Manchester by the Sea winning in that category (even though I didn't particularly enjoy it).

Acting

In my opinion, the Screen Actors Guild Awards have these categories basically locked up - Washington, Stone, Ali, and Davis is a winning acting lineup that makes a lot of sense to me. Such a setup would be quite the milestone for the Academy, giving us the first year ever where three-fourths of the acting categories go to people of color, Denzel Washington being the first black person to win three Academy Awards, and Viola Davis being the first black woman to receive three nominations. Potential spoilers abound and can be seen below, but this lineup seems fairly safe to me.

Technicals - Visual

As previously stated, La La Land looks poised to take a number of these categories, but not all of them. In fact, in my opinion, there are only two visual categories where La La Land is an absolute lock - cinematography and production design. The next most likely is film editing, which I'm still predicting LLL will win, but I believe could just as easily go to Moonlight (maybe I'm overestimating how much the Academy will love that movie, but eight nominations for an almost entirely black film about homosexuality is not nothing). Costume design seems poised to go to Jackie, given the Academy's penchant for period pieces in that category and the "I remember this" factor with the subject matter for the mostly-in-their-60s Academy voting crowd. The Jungle Book looks like it will be taking Visual Effects, but this category has surprised me before. Makeup probably should go to Star Trek Beyond, but my instinct that sometimes the world is bad has kicked in and made me stupidly believe Suicide Squad has a chance for a surprise win there. Ick.

Technicals - Aural

La La Land will be taking the majority of these four categories, with the exception of Sound Editing most likely. Musicals understandably perform well in the Song, Score, and Sound Mixing categories, and even though the Academy had plenty of work from old reliable oft-nominated faves, they decided to go for a decidedly young and fresh crowd this year, so the new talent on show is certainly interesting. Congratulations in advance to young composer Justin Hurwitz for his forthcoming two Oscars. Sound Editing on the other hand will most likely go to Mel Gibson's gory war film Hacksaw Ridge, following the unwritten rule for this category that the loudest film is the winner, but for some reason I can imagine a world where either Deepwater Horizon or Sully take this award out of nowhere.

Animation, Documentary, and Foreign Film

Probably my boldest prediction out of all of these is that Kubo and the Two Strings will be the victor in the Best Animated Feature race. Being one of only two animated nominees this year to be nominated in multiple categories (and for one as odd and significant as Best Visual Effects, no less) as well as the amazing goodwill Laika has as a studio despite major financial troubles convinces me that this movie might just win out, especially if Disney votes are split between Moana and Zootopia. To be fair, Zootopia has been the frontrunner since almost a year ago (a nearly perfect Rotten Tomatoes score and early talk of a picture and screenplay nomination are not nothing for an animated kids' flick), and it did win top honors at the Annie Awards, but it wouldn't even be the first time recently that the Academy differed from the Annies. It's a bold choice but I'm going for it.

O.J.: Made in America seems to be the frontrunner for Documentary, though I believe 13th has a very good chance, as they are both excellently made treatises on racial issues in America from what I'm aware. As for foreign film, the Academy has a chance to make a heavy political statement if they choose to award Asghar Farhadi's film The Salesman. It's gotten pretty great reviews and Farhadi is an Oscar winner in this category, and his boycotting of the ceremony due to Donald Trump's immigration and travel ban last month would give them a chance to make what I am assuming will be one of hundreds of political statements Sunday night. If they decide to go with the flow though, previous frontrunner Toni Erdmann from Germany will take home the gold (weird that the two foreign frontrunners are both countries that Trump supporters seem to hate).

Shorts

I know jack shit about the short categories. My guesses are Piper, Timecode, and The White Helmets. All right, we're done. Full list of winner predictions below. 

FULL WINNER PREDICTIONS LIST

Best Picture

Will Win: La La Land

Could Win: Moonlight

Should Win: Moonlight

Should've Been Nominated: The Lobster

Best Director

Will Win: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Could Win: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

Should Win: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Should've Been Nominated: Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Swiss Army Man)

Best Actor

Will Win: Denzel Washington (Fences)

Could Win: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Should Win: Denzel Washington (Fences)

Should've Been Nominated: Adam Driver (Paterson)

Best Actress

Will Win: Emma Stone (La La Land)

Could Win: Natalie Portman (Jackie)

Should Win: Natalie Portman (Jackie)

Should've Been Nominated: Amy Adams (Arrival)

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Could Win: Dev Patel (Lion)
Should Win: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Should've Been Nominated: Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight)

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis (Fences)
Could Win: Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Should Win: Viola Davis (Fences)
Should've Been Nominated: Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Could Win: La La Land
Should Win: The Lobster
Should've Been Nominated: The Nice Guys

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Moonlight
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: Moonlight
Should've Been Nominated: The Handmaiden

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Could Win: Doctor Strange
Should Win: The Jungle Book
Should've Been Nominated: Arrival

Best Film Editing
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Moonlight
Should've Been Nominated: 10 Cloverfield Lane

Best Cinematography
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: La La Land
Should've Been Nominated: The Handmaiden

Best Production Design
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Hail, Caesar!
Should Win: La La Land
Should've Been Nominated: The Handmaiden

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Jackie
Could Win: La La Land
Should Win: Jackie
Should've Been Nominated: The Nice Guys

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Could Win: Suicide Squad
Should Win: Star Trek Beyond
Should've Been Nominated: Jackie

Best Original Score
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: La La Land
Should've Been Nominated: Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Original Song
Will Win: "City of Stars" (La La Land)
Could Win: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" (La La Land)
Should Win: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" (La La Land)
Should've Been Nominated: "Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Should Win: La La Land
Should've Been Nominated: The Jungle Book

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Could Win: Deepwater Horizon
Should Win: Arrival
Should've Been Nominated: 10 Cloverfield Lane, The Jungle Book

Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Could Win: Zootopia
Should Win: Zootopia
Should've Been Nominated: Your Name

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: The Salesman (Iran)
Could Win: Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Should Win: no comment; haven't seen any of them yet
Should've Been Nominated: Elle (France)

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: O.J.: Made in America
Could Win: 13th
Should Win: 13th
Should've Been Nominated: Weiner

Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: Piper
Could Win: Blind Vaysha

Best Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: The White Helmets
Could Win: Extremis

Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: Timecode
Could Win: one of the other nominees


All right, that's about it for now. Reviews coming eventually as always. Tune in next week for the Oscars on Sunday and sometime after for my Top 15 Favorite Films of 2016 list!