89th Academy Awards - Nominee Predictions #2

We've had some major developments the last few weeks in the realm of Oscar-guessing, so I thought it was a decent enough time to update my predictions. Basically every major critics circle has announced their nominees and/or winners, the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations have been announced, and most of the notable Academy shortlists of eligibility have been released, all with some relatively surprising results. So, no use introducing this much further; I'm just gonna get into it.

To make things easier for myself, I'll only be highlighting categories in which I've made major changes in my predictions compared to last time in this post, as a good chunk of my guesses for each category have remained mostly unchanged. I'll provide a full list of all my predictions at the bottom of the post for comparison. My next Oscars post will be my final predictions before the nominees are announced, and will be posted a few days before then (the nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th). Once again, nominees are listed in order of plausibility, and the Best Live Action Short Film, Best Animated Short Film, and Best Documentary Short Subject categories have been omitted for this list, but will be included in my final predictions. All right, let's start for real.

Best Foreign Language Film

My predictions (and most people's predictions) for this category got absolutely obliterated a few weeks ago when the Academy released their 9-film shortlist, eliminating major players Elle (the frontrunner to win), Julieta, and Neruda, from France, Spain, and Chile, respectively. That leaves this year's frontrunner as Toni Erdmann from Germany, which was significantly less controversial and even generally better received than Elle. My guesses to round out the nominees are Land of Mine (Denmark is always a decent choice, as it is the sixth most nominated country in this category), Asghar Farhadi's lukewarmly received Iranian drama The Salesman (he previously won in 2011 for A Separation), Switzerland's whimsical animated tale My Life as a Zucchini (benefiting from added exposure from being on the animated film shortlist as well), and Russia's Paradise to round out the fifth spot, though I'll be completely honest and say I have no idea how that slot will pan out. Consider Toni Erdmann and The Salesman relative locks, though.

Predicted Nominees:
1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2. The Salesman (Iran)
3. Land of Mine (Denmark)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)
5. Paradise (Russia)

The Only Contenders Left:
6. It's Only the End of the World (Canada)
7. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
8. Tanna (Australia)
9. The King's Choice (Norway)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Another category that the Academy totally blew up predictions-wise with their shortlist. What is it with the Academy and handling this category so strangely? Once again, the agreed-upon frontrunners to win in this category have been omitted from their shortlist, this time being Jackie and Silence. This list is even more exclusive and strange than the one for foreign film, featuring only seven choices. The Academy has now created a world where Deadpool may actually get an Oscar nomination, just for one category where there is a great case to be made against it. Nathaniel Rogers of The Film Experience put it succinctly when he said that Deadpool will most likely be like Shrek in terms of awards season, in that it's irreverent and hip now, but the prizes for it will seem embarrassing in not too much time. As someone who has thought the hype for Deadpool was over-zealous from day one, I happen to agree with this. To be fair, though, it would not at all be the worst movie nominated in this category (the likes of Norbit and The Wolfman have also shown up here in the past decade).

So, with our original frontrunners gone, Florence Foster Jenkins seems to be the most obvious choice for winner and thus the most obvious choice as nominee, and I'm having Deadpool and Star Trek Beyond round out the last two slots, though Suicide Squad is a potential spoiler (as bad as that film was, its makeup work is among the most notable of this list of low-sense choices).

Predicted Nominees:

1. Florence Foster Jenkins

2. Star Trek Beyond

3. Deadpool

Potential Spoiler:

4. Suicide Squad

Other Choices:

5. The Dressmaker

6. Hail, Caesar!

7. A Man Called Ove

Best Original Score

This category has always been strange, Birdman and The Revenant being notable exclusions from Oscar's shortlist in recent years. The most major omission here is once again a frontrunner to win, Johann Johannson for Arrival, allegedly due to too many of the pieces being unoriginal. This all but solidifies La La Land as the movie to beat in this category in my opinion, and also gives some other films a fighting chance that I'd previously underwritten. I'm under the impression that The Jungle Book will actually get more attention in technicals than I've been estimating (you'll notice I now have it in the top five for production design, for instance), so I expect it to show up here, the Globe love for Moonlight convinces me it'll be included, and Mica Levi's score for Jackie should make up for the "ominous stringy score" gap left by the exclusion of Arrival. I still haven't bought the consensus that Lion will be a hit with Academy voters outside of Patel and Kidman for some reason, but I admit it's a possibility here.

Predicted Nominees:

1. La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)

2. Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)

3. Florence Foster Jenkins (Alexandre Desplat)

4. The Jungle Book (John Debney)

5. Jackie (Mica Levi)

Potential Spoilers:

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)

7. The BFG (John Williams)

8. Lion (Dustin O'Halloran and Hauschka)

9. Finding Dory (Thomas Newman)

10. Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)

Best Adapted Screenplay

We gained one definite and one possible nominee in this category after the Academy ruled that Moonlight and Loving will be included in the adapted categories rather than original. Back in the summer, I assumed Moonlight would be considered adapted, being based on an unproduced stage play, even though it doesn't make a whole lot of sense considering the final film product is completely indiscernible from its source material, which itself never technically "existed". I don't think Loving will get in here, as I've just heard very little buzz for it outside of Ruth Negga, so Moonlight is really the only significant addition to this list, and currently my guess for winner as well. 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Moonlight (Barry Jenkins and Tarrell Alvin McCraney)

2. Arrival (Eric Heisserer)

3. Silence (Martin Scorsese and Jay Cocks)

4. Fences (August Wilson's ghost)

5. Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi)

Potential Spoilers:

6. Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)

7. Loving (Jeff Nichols)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight and Robert Schenkkan)

9. Lion (Luke Davies)

10. Sully (Todd Komarnicki)

Best Supporting Actor

Next we have this historically ever-elusive category, further shaken up by the Screen Actors Guild Award nominations. I personally feel that this year's nominees will match the SAG nominees fairly closely. I was originally wary of the idea of Dev Patel and Hugh Grant getting nominations, but it seems Florence Foster Jenkins is getting a fair amount of late-term goodwill (which does bump it up in the costume and production design categories, though I still doubt it makes the top five there), and I guess this whole Lion being a Best Picture threat thing is happening even though everybody seems to agree that it's a fairly by-the-numbers crowd-pleaser. Oh well. I'll probably be wrong about these because this category rarely makes sense.

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

2. Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)

3. Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)

4. Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)

5. Dev Patel (Lion)

Potential Spoilers:

6. Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

7. Liam Neeson (Silence)

8. Issei Ogata (Silence)

9. Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)

10. Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)

Best Picture

Not really any changes here, mostly just in the ordering of what I think will be nominated. The same locks are still in place here, but moving down on the radar are Sully, Silence, and Live by Night, and rising are Fences, 20th Century Women, and Hidden Figures. Sully has missed out on just about every major award so far, Live by Night opened to mediocre reviews in a crowded December, and while Silence is still definitely a threat just by virtue of being directed by Martin Scorsese, it's only been getting scattershot precursor attention, and won't even get a wide release until a week before nominees are due out, so it's not clear to what extent it'll get attention. I'm still guessing it will go the route of the likes of American Sniper and True Grit where the late release actually aids it in getting last-minute attention despite light precursor heat.

Locks:

1. La La Land

2. Manchester by the Sea

3. Moonlight

Other Predicted Nominees:

4. Arrival

5. Hell or High Water

6. Fences

7. Jackie

8. Hidden Figures

9. Hacksaw Ridge

Possible Nominees:

10. Silence

11. 20th Century Women

12. Lion

That's all for extended coverage of the categories. Below you'll find a list of just my top 5 predictions, without any potential spoilers listed. Unlike above, this list is ordered in alphabetical  order rather than in order of possibility of nomination. Stay tuned in January after the PGA nominees announcement for an in-depth look into the Best Picture race specifically, as well as for some last-minute reviews of remaining 2016 movies.

Full Predictions List

Best Picture

- Arrival

- Fences

- Hacksaw Ridge

- Hell or High Water

- Hidden Figures

- Jackie

- La La Land

- Manchester by the Sea

- Moonlight

- Silence

Best Director

- Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

- Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

- Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

- Martin Scorsese (Silence)

- Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)

Best Actor

- Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

- Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)

- Ryan Gosling (La La Land)

- Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)

- Denzel Washington (Fences)

Best Actress

- Amy Adams (Arrival)

- Annette Bening (20th Century Women)

- Natalie Portman (Jackie)

- Emma Stone (La La Land)

- Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Best Supporting Actor

- Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

- Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)

- Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)

- Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)

- Dev Patel (Lion)

Best Supporting Actress

- Viola Davis (Fences)

- Naomie Harris (Moonlight)

- Nicole Kidman (Lion)

- Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

- Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Best Original Screenplay

- 20th Century Women (Mike Mills)

- Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)

- La La Land (Damien Chazelle)

- The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos and Eftyhmis Filippou)

- Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)

Best Adapted Screenplay

- Arrival (Eric Heisserer)

- Fences (August Wilson)

- Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi)

- Moonlight (Barry Jenkins and Tarrell Alvin McCraney)

- Silence (Martin Scorsese and Jay Cocks)

Best Original Score

- Florence Foster Jenkins (Alexandre Desplat)

- Jackie (Mica Levi)

- The Jungle Book (John Debney)

- La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)

- Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)

Best Original Song

- "Can't Stop the Feeling" (Trolls)

- "City of Stars" (La La Land)

- "Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)

- "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)

- "Runnin'" (Hidden Figures)

Best Cinematography

- Arrival (Bradford Young)

- Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)

- La La Land (Linus Sandgren)

- Moonlight (James Laxton)

- Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)

Best Film Editing

- Arrival (Joe Walker)

- Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)

- Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)

- La La Land (Tom Cross)

- Moonlight (Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders)

Best Production Design

- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)

- Jackie (Jean Rabasse)

- The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)

- La La Land (David Wasco)

- Silence (Dante Ferretti)

Best Costume Design

- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)

- Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)

- Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)

- La La Land (Mary Zophres)

- Silence (Sandy Powell)

Best Visual Effects

- Arrival

- Captain America: Civil War

- Doctor Strange

- The Jungle Book

- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Mixing

- Arrival

- Hacksaw Ridge

- The Jungle Book

- La La Land

- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing

- Arrival

- Hacksaw Ridge

- The Jungle Book

- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

- Sully

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

- Deadpool

- Florence Foster Jenkins

- Star Trek Beyond

Best Animated Feature Film

- Kubo and the Two Strings

- Moana

- The Red Turtle

- Your Name

- Zootopia

Best Documentary Feature

- 13th

- Cameraperson

- I Am Not Your Negro

- O.J.: Made in America

- Weiner

Best Foreign Language Film

- Land of Mine (Denmark)

- My Life as a Zucchini (Swizterland)

- Paradise (Russia)

- The Salesman (Iran)

- Toni Erdmann (Germany)