Anyway, the Oscar nominee announcements are a week away now, and it doesn't look like we'll get any clearer idea of what direction they're most likely going in between now and then, so I guess it's time to do my final Oscar nominee predictions. We have announced nominees for the DGAs, PGAs, WGAs, BAFTAs, and the guilds for editors, cinematographers, production designers, visual effects artists, and costume designers. We also had a surprise-filled Golden Globes ceremony. While the Globes aren't incredibly predictive of the Oscars, they do set the stage for what's generally in the conversation in Hollywood. That, and the Globes are often helpful when paired with more relevant and predictive precursors, like the SAGs or PGAs. They're not so much a good educator of guesses themselves, but can help bolster an argument for a film. There have been surprises in the decisions of each of these precursor awards, both involving what has been included and what has been omitted.
As with the last two posts, I'll be ordering my guesses for nominees in order of most to least likely to be nominated. Unlike the last post, though, I will be offering commentary on every category, except Best Live Action Short Film, Best Documentary Short Subject, and Best Animated Short Film - I don't really have any great insight into these categories other than regurgitating titles I've heard mentioned from typically reputable sources, so my guesses for those categories will just be shown in alphabetical order in the full list I'll be posting right before nominees are announced. Come back on January 24th to see how I do.
Best Foreign Language Film
The foreign film category seems particularly weak this year given the Academy's ludicrous exclusions on their nominee shortlist, particularly the omission of Elle, the well-agreed-upon frontrunner for the category back in the fall. Right now consensus seems to be around Maren Ade's film Toni Erdmann, with previous winner Asghar Farhadi's The Salesman as a close second. The other nominees are mostly up in the air from there. A Man Called Ove's inclusion on the also crazy shortlist for Makeup make me think it has vocal fans, and possible inclusion in other categories bodes well for foreign nominee hopefuls. Despite that, I'm guessing that My Life as a Zucchini is more likely to show up in the animated category than here, even though it is eligible for both. This is a notoriously inconsistent category though, so outside of those two frontrunners it could go basically wherever.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2. The Salesman (Iran)
3. Land of Mine (Denmark)
4. A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
5. Tanna (Australia)
Possible Spoilers:
6. My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)
7. Paradise (Russia)8. It's Only the End of the World (Canada)
Best Documentary Feature
2016 was apparently the year everyone became obsessed with the trial of O.J. Simpson, between the praise heaped on the ESPN documentary O.J.: Made in America and the fictional Globe phenomenon miniseries The People v. O.J. Simpson. O.J.'s formidable length and genesis on television made me apprehensive about deeming it a frontrunner earlier, but it seems to be most people's idea of the film to beat, and is a fairly safe bet for a nomination at the least. Ava DuVernay's 13th, about the history of racism in the American criminal justice system, is also a very safe bet based on its award performance and unanimous acclaim.
Both in this category and others, there are a surprising number of Oscar frontrunners that have to do with American racial issues, and I Am Not Your Negro has been heavily praised. Tackling issues outside of America, the Italian doc Fire at Sea detailing the European migrant crisis seems like it could make a splash despite being excluded from the foreign shortlist, given its timeliness. I'm still giving the edge to Weiner for the fifth spot just because there's always an under-discussed nominee in these types of categories and I personally just think it's excellent and timely. That said, the animated doc Tower about the 1966 University of Texas massacre garnered a PGA nomination last week, and Cameraperson, The Eagle Huntress, and Gleason all have arguments to be made for them. These categories are always more open-ended, but my five picks seem like good ones to me.
Locks:
1. O.J.: Made in America
2. 13th
Other Predicted Nominees:
3. I Am Not Your Negro
4. Fire at Sea
5. Weiner
Possible Spoilers:
6. Tower
7. The Eagle Huntress
8. Gleason
9. Cameraperson
10. Zero Days
Best Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings has actually been the most consistently represented animated film among precursor awards, surprising because of its poor box office performance. It's on the shortlist for Visual Effects strangely enough, and garnered a fair number of Annie nominations, so it's a much more formidable adversary for its nearly year-old frontrunner, Zootopia. Moana will get in based solely on its throwback musical numbers and idiosyncratic touch of Clements/Musker. The Red Turtle isn't even released wide in America until this weekend, but it's been screened basically everywhere and has gotten rave reviews and included on most award lists, so it's a safe bet. Beyond those four, it's a bit more up in the air. Finding Dory got the PGA nomination and a BAFTA nod, but it lacks a Globe nod and was well-received and commercially successful, if an underwhelming Pixar offering after the lauded Inside Out, but Pixar's namesake alone can be enough to get it a nomination. Dory and My Life as a Zucchini have been included on several awards list and are the major films fighting out for the fifth spot in my opinion. The commercial success of Your Name, Sing, and The Secret Life of Pets, however, could prove beneficial to their chances despite their spurious awards recognition.
Locks:
1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
Safe Bets:
3. The Red Turtle
4. Moana
Disputed Fifth Nomination:
5. My Life as a Zucchini
Possible Spoilers:
6. Finding Dory
7. Your Name
8. Sing
9. The Secret Life of Pets
10. Sausage Party
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Jesus, what a snooze of a category this turned out to be this year. In my opinion, a nomination shortlist is very weak when the frontrunner to win is Florence Foster Jenkins, which wasn't even in the top 10 of possibilities pre-shortlist. Either way, Star Trek usually scores here and Deadpool is getting a lot of in my opinion undue awards recognition, and this seems like the most likely category for it to show up, if for nothing else than the weakness of its competitors. A Man Called Ove being a foreign competitor could work in its favor, and after that it's basically a craps shoot of mediocre choices.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Florence Foster Jenkins
2. Deadpool
3. Star Trek Beyond
Possible Spoilers:
4. A Man Called Ove
5. Hail, Caesar!
6. Suicide Squad
Best Sound Editing
Guesses for the sound categories are always kind of all over the place. There aren't any super official predictive guilds or precursor awards to go off of, so it's more of a matter of observing voting trends than anything. Hacksaw Ridge is the frontrunner here because of the "the loudest film wins sound editing" rule of thumb, and war films generally clean up in these categories. I'm apparently the only one thinking The Jungle Book will show up here, but I'm standing by it. Deepwater Horizon has made surprising ground, and is a safer bet than Berg's more recent release Patriot's Day, and then I think Sully will sneak up on people in technicals despite it being shut out of most major precursors. The Academy likes Clint Eastwood (they've nominated even his more lackluster films), and I think people are under-estimating how influential the old white dude demo is in AMPAS.
Arrival and La La Land are threats, though. Arrival isn't a crash-bang action sci-fi film, but Academy voters may see trailers for it and peg it to be one anyway. And everyone and their mother is (understandably) predicting major love for La La Land, and the Academy generally over-nominates films it really loves, so even though it wouldn't really make sense, it could end up here.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. The Jungle Book
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Sully
Possible Spoilers:
6. Arrival
7. La La Land
8. Patriot's Day
9. Silence
Longer Shots:
10. Captain America: Civil War
11. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
12. Hell or High Water
Best Sound Mixing
The sound mixing category and sound editing category usually very closely overlap, the only difference being Best Picture nominees are more often represented here. La La Land is a musical, which gives it an automatic leg up (Oscar's last musical Best Picture nominee Les Miserables won this category). but outside of that I'm leaving my guesses mostly the same, with Deepwater Horizon being the film that gets kicked out due to it being the nominee with the smallest chance of showing up in bigger categories.
Predicted Nominees:
1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. The Jungle Book
5. Sully
Possible Spoilers:
6. Deepwater Horizon
7. Silence
8. Arrival
9. Patriot's Day
Best Visual Effects
My five top guesses for this category haven't changed since my first write-up, but some of the potential spoilers have gained more traction lately, namely Fantastic Beasts and Kubo and the Two Strings, though I'm slow to accept either of them as surefire nominees. The Harry Potter universe is not super well represented in this category, and Kubo is a stop-motion animated film, albeit a visually rapturous one that is technically eligible. Other minor offerings could theoretically sneak in here, but the five I have here seem like very safe bets. Rogue One and The Jungle Book are the only true locks, the former possibly spoiling as the winner in February due to its impressive presence at the VFX Awards.
Locks:
1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Other Predicted Nominees:
3. Doctor Strange
4. Arrival
5. Captain America: Civil War
Possible Spoilers:
6. Kubo and the Two Strings
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
8. The BFG
Best Costume Design
La La Land, Jackie, and Fantastic Beasts are the only true surefire nominees for this category, due to broad critical love, period work, and industry love for Colleen Atwood, respectively. Outside of that, it's a fairly open-ended competition between primarily period pieces, as is the norm with this category. You'll notice that I'm predicting a surprising amount of love for Florence Foster Jenkins, which comes from the fact that there's always at least one film everyone considers but doesn't really give much credence to with these awards, and Stephen Frears's last film, Philomena, proved to be just that in 2013. That, and Streep and Grant are safe bets for acting nominations, and the film was given some unexpected extra facetime with the public after Meryl's Globes speech. The fifth spot I'm giving to The Handmaiden, which was not even the submission for foreign film for South Korea, despite being nearly tied with Elle and Toni Erdmann for most frequently featured foreign nominee in precursors and critics circles. It wasn't submitted, but people are seeing it and the buzz is there.
On the other hand, Allied has picked up some nods in this category from guilds despite its lukewarm reviews, and Hidden Figures is poised to make a decent showing with its surprising box office performance the week voting started, so they are definite possibilities. Many of the other numerous period flicks from this year also have decent shots.
Lock:
1. Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
Other Predicted Nominees:
2. La La Land (Mary Zophres)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
4. Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
5. The Handmaiden (Sang-gyeong Jo)
Possible Spoilers:
6. Allied (Joanna Johnston)
7. Silence (Sandy Powell)
8. Hidden Figures (Renee Erlich Kalfus)
9. Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
10. Fences (Sharen Davis)
11. Hail, Caesar! (Mary Zophres)
12. Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
Longer Shots:
13. Live by Night (Jacqueline West)
14. Loving (Erin Benach)
15. Hacksaw Ridge (Lizzy Gardiner)
16. Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)
Best Production Design
Once again, La La Land and Jackie seem to be basic locks here, and the Harry Potter universe as envisioned by Stuart Craig is well-loved with the Academy, so Fantastic Beasts is another safe bet. The Jungle Book has often been referred to as the Avatar of this year as far as visual effects and artificial world-building go, and as far as CGI-heavy design goes, it seems to be the frontrunner, so I'm pulling for a nomination here. My fifth spot goes to Hidden Figures, just because I think it'll end up being a Best Picture nominee and it'd be weird to see such an icon-filled period piece not pick up a design nod, but there are arguments to be made for my spoilers as well. Doctor Strange also has an outside shot after some nods in relevant guilds here.
Locks:
1. Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
2. La La Land (David Wasco)
Other Predicted Nominees:
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
4. The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)
5. Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)
Possible Spoilers:
6. Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
7. Silence (Dante Ferretti)
8. Hail, Caesar! (Jess Gonchor)
9. Doctor Strange (Charles Wood)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang and Neil Lamont)
11. The Handmaiden (Seong-hie Ryu)
12. Florence Foster Jenkins (Alan MacDonald)
Longer Shots:
13. Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison)
14. Cafe Society (Santo Loquasto)
15. Fences (David Gropman)
16. Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)
17. Live by Night (Jess Gonchor)
18. Love & Friendship (Anna Rackard)
Best Film Editing
Now into the upper echelon of categories, the Film Editing category seems to be fairly straightforward, with La La Land and Moonlight being essential locks given their Best Picture threat status. Manchester by the Sea surprised with an ACE nomination, but I still think it will be seen as more of an actor's film rather than anything brimming with technical achievement, so I'm leaving it out of the top five. Arrival editor Joe Walker was previously nominated for Denis Villeneuve's last film Sicario, so he seems like a fair bet here, Hacksaw Ridge is probably more likely to score here than any other technical besides sound, and Sully is my oddball choice. I really do feel like the Academy will latch onto it more than precursor awards did - that is to say, more than not at all.
Locks:
1. La La Land (Tom Cross)
2. Moonlight (Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders)
Other Predicted Nominees:
3. Arrival (Joe Walker)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
5. Sully (Blu Murray)
Possible Spoilers:
6. Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
7. Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
8. Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Longer Shots:
9. Fences (Hughes Winborne)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Jabez Olssen)
11. Lion (Alexandre de Franscheschi)
12. Hidden Figures (Peter Teschner)
13. Patriot's Day (Colby Parker, Jr.)
14. The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
Best Cinematography
In my mind, the three locks here seem to be Moonlight, La La Land, and Arrival, the most frequently cited films in discussions of the best camerawork of the year, even if Moonlight is a comparatively more subtle choice for this usually quite flashy category. This is the only category I have Silence being nominated for. You'll notice the number of nominations I've predicted for Silence is substantially fewer than my first write-up. It's missed some crucial guild and precursor points, hasn't necessarily been critically acclaimed, has had some disappointing box office numbers, and reportedly did not have all of its screeners properly disbursed. It did, however, manage a nomination for the ASC awards, and Rodrigo Perito is a known and respected DP, so I'm betting it shows up here.
My fifth spot is going to Nocturnal Animals because of that film's uneven but surprising ubiquity in precursors. I don't think it'll manage a picture or director nomination as it's quite polarizing, but it's a beautifully shot film and McGarvey is respected.
Locks:
1. La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
2. Moonlight (James Laxton)
3. Arrival (Bradford Young)
Other Predicted Nominees:
4. Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)
5. Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey)
Possible Spoilers:
6. Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)
7. Lion (Greg Fraser)
8. Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)
9. Live by Night (Robert Richardson)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Greg Fraser)
11. Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
12. The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
Longer Shots:
13. Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
14. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
15. Allied (Don Burgess)
16. Sully (Tom Stern)
Best Original Song
Big surprise - La La Land is the frontrunner for this category. The only real question is which song(s) will be nominated, and how many. The Academy allows two song nominations per film, and the two most popular seem to be "City of Stars" and "Audition", the former being the more frequently nominated even though, while it's the first song anyone heard from the film, it's actually one of the least memorable or consequential to the story. "Audition" would be a good choice, as it's basically a summation of the film's themes and it's beautifully performed in one take by Emma Stone in the film's climax. Any other songs are a bit of a long shot, but the opening number "Another Day of Sun" could possibly replace one of the two. Stranger things have happened in this category.
Outside of that, Moana, Disney's first true musical in a few years, is set to be nominated for its girl power anthem. Assuming La La Land gets two and Moana gets one, I have the final two slots filled by "Runnin'" from Hidden Figures (it's probably a Best Picture nominee and is written and performed by previous nominee Pharrell Williams) and "Drive It Like You Stole It" from Sing Street (it's considered an outside shot by many, but it got a major Globe nod and lots of critical acclaim, and its director has made musicals successful with Oscar in the past like Once and Begin Again). Oddly enough, the latter song is also one that isn't the best of its film (I'd give that to "Brown Shoes"). The music branch is stupid.
Locks:
1. "City of Stars" (La La Land)
2. "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
Other Predicted Nominees:
3. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" (La La Land)
4. "Runnin'" (Hidden Figures)
5. "Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
Possible Spoilers:
6. "Can't Stop the Feeling" (Trolls)
7. "I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
8. "A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood)
9. "The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply)
10. "A Letter to the Free" (13th)
Longer Shots:
11. "Another Day of Sun" (La La Land)
12. "We Know the Way" (Moana)
13. "The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)
14. "Try Everything" (Zootopia)
15. "Faith" (Sing)
Best Original Score
This category is very open-ended this year for a reason that can really describe most of the more unanswerable questions with this year's Oscars, and that is that many of the agreed-upon best of the year come from people completely unfamiliar to the Academy. There is a not unlikely lineup for this category that would be completely made up of first-time nominees, including several young newcomers. It's an exciting prospect, but somewhat of a pipe dream. The Academy likes safety and sameness to a degree, so they gravitate toward names they know (don't we all?).
That said, and this is pretty much a given at this point, La La Land is a lock. If you haven't seen La La Land and are already tired of all the awards buzz, sorry, but the film really is an achievement on numerous levels, and it deserves to win here. Anyway, Moonlight seems like a decent bet based on the meager precursors we have to go off of, and outside of that it's pretty much a game of "recognizable name or disputed best newcomer". I'm going with Debney, Desplat, and Giacchino because their films are well-liked already and they are previous nominees. But, like I said, there's a lot to be said for other possible nominees both by way of precursors and voting trends so we'll see.
Lock:
1. La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
Other Predicted Nominees:
2. Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
3. Florence Foster Jenkins (Alexandre Desplat)
4. The Jungle Book (John Debney)
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino
Possible Spoilers:
6. Lion (Dustin O'Halloran and Hauschka)
7. Jackie (Mica Levi)
8. Nocturnal Animals (Levi Korzeniowski)
9. The BFG (John Williams)
10. Kubo and the Two Strings (Dario Marianelli)
Longer Shots:
11. Moana (Mark Mancina)
12. Finding Dory (Thomas Newman)
13. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)
14. Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
15. Patriot's Day (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
16. Doctor Strange (Michael Giacchino)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Three out of five slots for this category seem fairly locked in, especially after the WGA Awards. Arrival, Fences, and Moonlight (which was inexplicably moved here even though it's being counted as original by everyone else including the WGA) all look like surefire nominees. Screenplay nominees usually skew to Best Picture nominees, so the direction of that category will determine the direction of this one, or vice versa. Some people are calling Lion a lock here which I do not understand, as it's been nominated for zero major screenplay awards so far. I've decided to go with Hidden Figures and Nocturnal Animals, both WGA nominees and both finding late-term success. This would boost Nocturnal Animals's chances for a best picture nomination, but not unequivocally.
The weird question here is whether Deadpool will be nominated, because yes, it was nominated for a WGA Award in this category, as well as a PGA Award, which are significant. I've also said in the past that Deadpool's awards performance is like Shrek's, in that it will be showered with nominations from guilds and critics for being subversive but will later seem overrated and dated. If it truly follows in that film's footsteps, it'll get a nomination here, just as Shrek did in 2001 (it was loosely based on a children's picture book - Shrek was, that is).
Locks:
Locks:
1. Moonlight (Barry Jenkins and Tarrell Alvin McCraney)
2. Fences (August Wilson)
3. Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
Other Predicted Nominees:
4. Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi)
5. Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
Possible Spoilers:
6. Deadpool (Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight and Robert Schenkkan)
8. Lion (Luke Davies)
9. Silence (Martin Scorsese and Jay Cocks)
10. Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)
Longer Shots:
11. Sully (Todd Komarnicki)
12. The Handmaiden (Park Chan-wook)
13. Elle (David Birke)
14. The Jungle Book (Justin Marks)
15. Certain Women (Kelly Reichardt)
Best Original Screenplay
La La Land's Globe win for this category is not necessarily 100% predictive of it winning here (if it wins the WGA Award it's pretty much a lock), but it's found great success in this category, so I'd say it and Manchester by the Sea are the only absolute locks. Hell or High Water is a very likely choice given its WGA nod and surprising goodwill with awards. The last two slots are pretty up in the air, and I'm being bold and giving them to The Lobster (which notably missed out at the WGAs but is written by a previously nominated writer/director and is very well liked) and Zootopia (which hasn't gotten any major screenplay awards but is arguably the most talked-about animated film of the year and could pull an Inside Out for its thematic ambitions).
Locks:
1. Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
2. La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
Other Predicted Nominees:
3. Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
4. The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou)
5. Zootopia (Byron Howard, Jared Bush, Phil Johnston, Rich Moore, Josie Trinidad, Jim Reardon, Jennifer Lee)
Possible Spoilers:
6. Florence Foster Jenkins (Nicholas Martin)
7. 20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
8. Loving (Jeff Nichols)
9. Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)
10. Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)
Longer Shots:
11. Hail, Caesar! (Joel and Ethan Coen)
12. I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)
13. Everybody Wants Some!! (Richard Linklater)
Best Supporting Actress
With the SAG Awards out, this seems like a five-way lock to most people: Harris, Williams, Davis, Kidman, and Spencer. I'm under the impression that Hidden Figures could possibly pull off a double nomination here with Spencer and Janelle Monae, but it's never super wise to bet on something that usually never happens (I want to say the last time it happened was Up in the Air in 2009, which oddly enough was also in this exact category). So, I'm going with the magic five, and, due to unfortunate lack of great supporting female roles this year (Davis's category fraud appearance here really brightens it up, though not to undermine the work of Williams and Harris), I don't see it going far outside of these five.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis (Fences)
2. Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
3. Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
4. Nicole Kidman (Lion)
5. Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Possible Spoilers (Although Anything Other Than This Five Seems Unlikely):
6. Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)
7. Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)
8. Molly Shannon (Other People)
9. Lily Gladstone (Certain Women)
Best Supporting Actor
So, apparently, people really like Nocturnal Animals and didn't make that apparent until right now. And apparently Michael Shannon isn't the actor to look at for a nod here, but Aaron Taylor-Johnson, of all people. I guess it's not that weird - after all, this time last year I was pining for an Oscar campaign for Vin Diesel for Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk. Anyway, this is always a weird category. They typically like crazy weirdos in this category, which is why I'm giving ATJ a significant bump, but for right now I'm sticking close to the SAG nominees. Ali and Bridges can be considered basically locks, but it's fairly all over the place beyond that, as always. Somewhat limited field somehow, at the same time.
Locks:
1. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
2. Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Other Predicted Nominees:
3. Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
4. Dev Patel (Lion)
5. Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Possible Spoilers:
6. Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
7. Liam Neeson (Silence)
8. Issei Ogata (Silence)
9. Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)
10. Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
Longer Shots:
11. John Goodman (10 Cloverfield Lane)
12. Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
13. Alan Rickman (Eye in the Sky)
14. Andre Holland (Moonlight)
15. Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight)
16. Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash)
Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert's win at the Globes for Elle was certainly significant, especially given the Academy's love for French film and her status as a storied but unrecognized actress. A nod here could make up for Elle's omission from the foreign film shortlist, and it wouldn't be the first time the female star of a foreign film was nominated here without a SAG nomination (it last happened in 2012 with Emmanuelle Riva for Amour). Stone and Portman have always been locks for their performances and will duke it out for most likely to win (right now Stone has the edge), and Amy Adams is a very safe bet for Arrival. I'm giving the fifth spot to Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins - it's a great performance, she's obviously a force to be reckoned with, she has a Globe and a SAG nod for it, and her Globes speech has drawn her into the spotlight again, for better or worse. There are certainly threats, but this five seems pretty tight to me.
Locks:
1. Emma Stone (La La Land)
2. Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Other Predicted Nominees:
3. Amy Adams (Arrival)
4. Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
5. Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Possible Spoilers:
6. Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
7. Ruth Negga (Loving)
8. Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
9. Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)
10. Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
Longer Shots:
11. Sally Field (Hello My Name is Doris)
12. Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)
13. Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers)
14. Marion Cotillard (Allied)
15. Sonia Braga (Aquarius)
Best Actor
It's a bit bold, but this seems like a four-way lock to me. Affleck, Washington, Garfield, and Gosling seem poised to almost certainly be nominated by the looks of things, with Affleck the current frontrunner to win, although there's an argument to be made for Washington and to a lesser extent Gosling taking the gold home. The fifth spot is where things are shaky - Viggo Mortensen surprised with a SAG nod, and its nomination for Best Ensemble Cast proves there are plenty of vocal fans, but I'm weary of naming him a definite nominee. I've been following the SAG nominees fairly closely so far, and that's never super smart. Something tells me the Academy will respond to Sully more than critics and guilds, and Tom Hanks hasn't been nominated in 16 years despite his late-period work outshining his trophy-heavy heyday, in my opinion. To be fair, the number of legitimate threats to the fifth spot are down to two or three, but they all are formidable.
Locks:
1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denzel Washington (Fences)
3. Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
4. Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Battling Out For the Fifth Spot:
5. Tom Hanks (Sully)
6. Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
7. Joel Edgerton (Loving)
Outside Shots:
8. Adam Driver (Paterson)
9. Michael Keaton (The Founder)
10. Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)
11. Matthew McConaughey (Gold)
12. Colin Farrell (The Lobster)
13. Andrew Garfield (Silence)
14. Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool) - it got a PGA nom, anything could happen
Best Director
Three locks exist for this category in my opinion - Chazelle, Jenkins, and Lonergan, with Villeneuve fairly safe. Once again, it's the fifth spot that is really in contention. The DGA Award nominations surprised with Garth Davis for Lion, but Oscar almost never follows the DGA nominations five for five, and Lion seems almost definitely like the weakest film in the lineup (I swear I don't have anything personally against this movie, I just don't see why it's getting so much guild attention while not really making sense for Oscars). I'm giving the fifth slot to Denzel for Fences, just because the adaptation from stage to film is pretty successful and the film was well received and commercially successful at just the right time of year.
However, the Academy may very well respond to the Gibsonaissance, so Hacksaw Ridge is not impossible here, and Tom Ford surprised with a Globe nod in this category, so that's a possibility. I don't see many other major players here, except maybe Martin Scorsese for Silence. It's weird that Scorsese would be a "maybe" here, but the film came out much too late and has really failed to connect on a wide level, and would need much greater presence in more minor categories for it to make any sense in the higher-ups, so I'm guessing he gets left out. Not that ol' Marty will be bothered by it, I'm sure.
However, the Academy may very well respond to the Gibsonaissance, so Hacksaw Ridge is not impossible here, and Tom Ford surprised with a Globe nod in this category, so that's a possibility. I don't see many other major players here, except maybe Martin Scorsese for Silence. It's weird that Scorsese would be a "maybe" here, but the film came out much too late and has really failed to connect on a wide level, and would need much greater presence in more minor categories for it to make any sense in the higher-ups, so I'm guessing he gets left out. Not that ol' Marty will be bothered by it, I'm sure.
Locks:
1. Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
2. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
3. Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Other Predicted Nominees:
4. Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
5. Denzel Washington (Fences)
Possible Spoilers:
6. Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
7. Garth Davis (Lion)
8. Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
9. Martin Scorsese (Silence)
Longer Shots:
10. David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
11. Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
12. Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Best Picture
The three locks for this category have not changed since my first write-up, and truthfully we're still dealing with the same 10-13 films as before, just in different orders. In short - Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, and Hell or High Water have mostly stayed the same in terms of likelihood; Fences, Hidden Figures, and Lion have moved up; and Silence, Jackie, and Sully have moved down.
Once again, I'm not convinced Lion is a definite shot here. It got a PGA and Globe nod, but its predicted weak performance in most major categories makes me weary. Silence is still a threat as always, but it may have been too little too late, Jackie has failed to connect outside of Portman and costumes for some reason, and Sully still has a good shot but would be a comparatively ho-hum inclusion. I actually think a come-from-behind nominee could be Florence Foster Jenkins. It's well-reviewed, half its cast is likely to be nominated, and it'll do decently in technicals, and they surprised everyone with a nomination here for the director's last film. Deadpool's PGA success also gives it an incredibly slim chance of nomination. Probably not, but expect thinkpieces aplenty if it does.
This category can have between five and ten nominees and usually ends up at eight. There's a good chance it could go 9 this year, but I think my top 8 is pretty solid.
Locks:
1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Moonlight
Other Predicted Nominees:
4. Arrival
5. Hacksaw Ridge
6. Hell or High Water
7. Fences
8. Hidden Figures
Possible Ninth or Tenth Nominees:
9. Lion
10. Jackie
11. Florence Foster Jenkins
12. Sully
13. Silence
14. Nocturnal Animals
Longer Shots:
15. Captain Fantastic
16. Loving
17. Zootopia
18. 20th Century Women
19. Patriot's Day
20. Deadpool
There you have it, my final predictions before the reveal on Tuesday, January 24th. I'll be posting the full list of my predicted nominees (without spoilers/long shots and commentary) the day before, and hope to have a post going through each Best Picture nominee guess individually, but we'll see. Stay tuned for some reviews catching up on films of 2016 I'm only now getting to see, and for reviews for 2017 films starting very soon.
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