90th Academy Awards - Final Nominee Predictions

By the time I'd decided to finally sit myself down and take the time to write out all my late December predictions for the technical categories for this year's Oscar nominees, the major precursor guild awards had already entered the final leg of nominee announcements and the Golden Globes were suddenly less than a week away (not that the Globes have incredible predictive power category by category for the Oscars, but they do show the general nature of the conversation surrounding different films in Hollywood at a time not far from when the Academy votes for its nominees). So, in lieu of pointlessly doing that, I'm putting all that effort into just going ahead and making my final predictions for the nominations of this year's 90th Academy Awards. It's an interesting time for Hollywood, not just with the still unraveling immediate aftermath of the outing of powerful serial sexual predators like Harvey Weinstein, Kevin Spacey, and Brett Ratner among others, but also, on a less depressing level, the rise of commercially successful and critically well-liked mainstream superhero and blockbuster movies, as well as several surprising indie efforts by (relative) newbies to showbiz, sort of taking the spotlight in the awards conversation, challenging some of the more "traditional" types of films that Oscar usually loves. Also of note is that since the last ceremony, the Academy has made great strides in changing its makeup, adding hundreds of new voting members that decidedly lean more female, young, and nonwhite, with plans to go further for the next several years. While the Academy's voting body is still a solid majority old white guy, there are signs pointing to a shifting of the tides of mainstream haughty awards bodies' sensibilities and tastes as the lines between "indie" and "mainstream" grow ever blurrier and previously muted voices begin to be heard with greater clarity, frequency, and urgency.

With all that said, let's have fun trying to guess the outcomes of this meaningless show. I'll be starting with the "smaller" categories and move my way up to Best Picture, with a short explanation for each category. All the major precursor awards have announced their nominees so this is about as educated a guess I could make on all these categories. I'll be listing my guesses in order of most to least probable in my opinion.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

The short categories are notoriously difficult to guess, at least if you're like me and don't live in Los Angeles and don't get access to the eligible short films during the actual calendar year (I did manage to see some good shorts at a festival this year, but none of them ended up being eligible for these awards). So, all that we laymen have to go on is the opinion of more "connected" people, and the subject matter/style of the short (and in fewer cases, the pedigree of the creators). Of the dozen or so shorts being considered, the closest thing to a frontrunner I can determine is DeKalb Elementary, a fictionalized account of a real-life 9-1-1 call made during a school shooting incident, should resonate the most with AMPAS voters.

Predicted Five (Though It Could Go Any Way Really):

1. DeKalb Elementary

2. Watu Wote / All of Us

3. Facing Mecca

4. The Eleven O'Clock

5. The Silent Child

Other Possible Nominees:

6. Rise of a Star

7. My Nephew Emmett
8. Witnesses

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

I haven't seen any of the films on the shortlist for this category either, but luckily animated pre-movie shorts are coming back into the mainstream (Disney, Pixar, Illumination, and I think Dreamworks are all doing them, right?), so establishing pedigree and art style the Academy gravitates toward is a little more doable in this category than live-action. The frontrunner according to all who've seen it is In a Heartbeat, a CG short produced by the Ringling College of Art and Design about a closeted gay boy whose heart pops out of his chest as he tries to make his romantic affection known to another boy. A nomination for this is essentially a lock, and it's the favorite to win as far as I can tell.

Predicted Five:

1. In a Heartbeat

2. Dear Basketball

3. Negative Space

4. Lou

5. Lost Property Office

Other Possible Nominees:

6. Cradle

7. Fox and the Whale

8. Revolting Rhymes

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

I have actually seen a whopping one of my guesses for this category - Ten Meter Tower, which is really interesting and well-done and I believe you can watch it for free online in some official capacity, but I'm not sure. Once again, other than that one, completely going off the opinions of others here, but here's what I got.

Predicted Five:

1. Alone

2. Ten Meter Tower

3. Heroin(e)

4. Ram Dass, Going Home

5. Edith + Eddie

Other Possible Nominees:

6. 116 Cameras

7. Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

8. Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets

9. Traffic Stop

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Academy's shortlist for the Foreign Language Film category is always devastatingly limiting, and typically the release of the shortlist causes a significant shift in the conversation of what will be nominated, as it typically involves the ousting of several deserving entries. Here, the frontrunner has stayed more or less the same since its Palme d'Or win at Cannes last year, and that is Ruben Ostlund's The Square, a twisted satire of the modern art world, the surest lock of the bunch, with Chile's A Fantastic Woman also remaining fairly untouchable, I'd say. Israel and Russia's entries look solid as well, but the fifth spot is disputed among a crop of choices that are each unlikely for their own reasons. Germany's In the Fade, while not receiving glowing reviews from critics, is gaining popularity and relevance given its subject matter relating to neo-Nazis, so it could be a threat. Also, the Academy is always tricky with this category, at pretty much every stage leading up to Oscar night. So we shall see.

Locks:

1. The Square (Sweden)

2. A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

Seem Like Safe Bets:

3. Foxtrot (Israel)

4. Loveless (Russia)

Vying for the Fifth Spot:

5. The Wound (South Africa)

6. In the Fade (Germany)

7. The Insult (Lebanon)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Lots of strong contenders and frontrunners this year, with a unique variety of subject matter (and admirably, not all of them stooped in political self-seriousness, though there's nothing wrong with that). The most likely three to me look to be Jane, an affectionate portrait of primate behavior expert Jane Goodall; Faces Places, an exploration of art and expression with French New Wave director Agnes Varda and visual artist JR; and City of Ghosts, a doc centering on the ongoing conflict in Syria that has been noted for its graphic, raw, and unrestrained imagery. After that, it's a toss-up between a gaggle of nearly equally matched picks. And once again, the Academy is not always easy to predict here.

Locks If Ever There Were:

1. Jane

2. Faces Places

Fairly Safe Bets:

3. City of Ghosts

4. Icarus

All Possible to Round Out the Five:

5. Strong Island

6. Last Men in Aleppo

7. Human Flow

8. LA 92

Outside Shots:

9. Chasing Coral

10. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power

11. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

12. Ex Libris: The New York Public Library 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Anyone else had the feeling that, stylistically at least, the winners for this category have lately been 1. easy to spot as a frontrunner from a mile away (Coco has been my #1 since like July), and 2. uniformly similar given how many varied and interesting visual styles the nominees have had as of late? Don't get me wrong, Coco seems great (haven't seen it yet) and people are in love with it, and it's not like the last few haven't been worthy winners. Just a peeve of mine; wish they'd branch out. Consider this - did you know the Academy hasn't picked a non-CG film in this category since 2006, and has only chosen one 2D film all the way back in 2003? CG is inarguably the dominant style in mainstream animation and style doesn't ultimately determine the best movie, but whatever.

Anyway, Coco will win. My top four guesses are pretty solid to me; the fifth spot is a competition between really underwhelming choices. Kind of a weak year for animation in terms of number of really worthy choices. But The Boss Baby might get nominated, which is funny.

Lock:

1. Coco

Safe Bets:

2. The Breadwinner

3. Loving Vincent

4. The Lego Batman Movie

Fair Possibilities for Fifth Spot:
5. Mary and the Witch's Flower

6. The Boss Baby

7. Ferdinand

8. In This Corner of the World

Outside Shots:

9. Despicable Me 3

10. Cars 3

11. Captain Underpants

12. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales

BEST SOUND MIXING

Sound Mixing and Sound Editing traditionally go hand in hand as far as nominees, usually with a minimum of three out of the five repeating. Mixing is generally reserved for bigger Best Picture threats, and the Academy loves war movies in both sound categories. Musicals also usually make an appearance here if the Academy likes them enough, and while neither are Best Picture fodder, The Greatest Showman has secured some late-year praise with a good showing at the Globes despite mixed reception, and Beauty and the Beast was a global box office phenomenon grossing $1.2 billion but has a better chance showing up in other craft categories we'll talk about later. It was also an early release from all the way back in March, so we'll see which one they go for. I'm banking on recency bias and going with Showman.

Also worth remembering, as with many of these less huge categories, that precedence and traditional guessing doesn't always pan out as with the sexier categories. We could get another surprise like last year with the nomination of 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, a Michael Bay film and an exceedingly rare Oscar-nominated January, in this category. 

Locks:

1. Dunkirk

2. Baby Driver

Predicted Remainders:
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. The Greatest Showman

5. The Shape of Water

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049

7. Beauty and the Beast

8. Wonder Woman

9. Get Out

Outside Shots:

10. War for the Planet of the Apes

11. The Post

12. Detroit

BEST SOUND EDITING

Once again, Mixing and Editing generally share a good number of nominees, so there are some repeats here. I actually think both Dunkirk and Baby Driver both have even better shots of winning in this category than mixing. Editing is generally where voters are more keen on blockbusters, as this category is more concerned with the creation and recording of sounds rather than the arrangement and management of them. Dunkirk is still the favorite to win, as all war movies go, and sci-fi outings like Shape of Water and Blade Runner have a better shot here. However, because of the openness to blockbuster choices here, Wonder Woman and Apes are also much more realistic choices than in the previous one.

Locks:

1. Dunkirk

2. Baby Driver

Predicted Remainders:
3. Blade Runner 2049

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. The Shape of Water

Other Distinct Possibilities:

6. Wonder Woman

7. War for the Planet of the Apes

8. Get Out

Outside Shots:

9. Detroit

10. Logan

11. Only the Brave

12. Beauty and the Beast

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

I will forever point out the stupidity in only having three nominee slots instead of the usual five in the category for makeup, a thing that literally every single live-action film has. Beyond that, the Academy's shortlist is incredibly restrictive (we're picking from seven possible nominees here), and usually the picks completely upend the general conversation around possible nominees. Luckily, once again, the year-long frontrunner of Darkest Hour, in which Gary Oldman is transformed into a pretty convincing Winston Churchill, has remained on top, with the bottom two slots slipping in and out. I'm filling out the three slots with I, Tonya, since it's just shy of a Best Picture threat (and also the makeup is a widely praised element of the film), and Wonder, because where else is such a critically adored, commercially successful but overall "lightweight" choice meant to score this year but here?

Lock:

1. Darkest Hour

The Probable Remainders:
2. Wonder

3. I, Tonya

The Others, in Order of Possibility to Upset:

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

5. Bright

6. Victoria and Abdul

7. Ghost in the Shell 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Two words make up the general rule of thumb for this category: period pieces. The Costume Designers Guild Awards are generally good indicators of what is to be nominated at the Oscars, but their nominees for achievement in contemporary costume design can be almost completely ignored. You will unfortunately never see a movie like Lady Bird getting an Oscar nomination for its subtle but perfect dressing of its early 2000s California-based cast of characters. Or at least, not for another 60 years when we can consider Lady Bird a period piece. Anyway, a healthy mix of the period and the fantastical is a generally good bet, and while Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread is the current favorite, The Shape of Water and The Greatest Showman have a lot to show for their period costuming.

On the genre front, I'd put Wonder Woman and Beauty and the Beast at the forefront of that conversation, though the former is undercut by its superhero genre and the latter because Jacqueline Durran also seems like a semi-safe bet for her work on Darkest Hour. While that movie is not only a period piece but a World War II movie, it screams Oscar technical category takeover, but it didn't get a CDGA nom like Beauty did and the live-action reboots of Disney animated classics have done well in this category (see also Maleficent and Cinderella), so I'm opting for that one.

Lock:

1. Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)

Predicted Rest of Five:

2. Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)

3. The Greatest Showman (Ellen Mirojnick)

4. The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)

5. Wonder Woman (Lindy Hemming)

Other Possible Nominees:

6. Victoria and Abdul (Consolata Boyle)

7. Murder on the Orient Express (Alexandra Byrne)

8. Dunkirk (Jeffrey Kurland)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (Renee April)

Outside Shots:

10. Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)

11. I, Tonya (Jennifer Johnson)

12. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Michael Kaplan)

13. The Beguiled (Stacey Battat)

14. The Post (Ann Roth)
15. Wonderstruck (Sandy Powell)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Another category where non-period/genre films can generally be tossed aside, a claim I'm prepared to be incorrect about given that last year's winner had a contemporary setting. On the period front, The Post designer Rick Carter is beloved by the Academy, his last win being an upset in 2013 for Lincoln, also hemmed by Spielberg, so that seems likely to me. Nathan Crowley worked with Chris Nolan to perfectly recreate the beaches of Dunkirk for Dunkirk, boats and planes and all, a technical achievement that will most likely be honored here. Then, getting into the realm of genre, The Shape of Water is as sure a bet as you can get, and Beauty and the Beast and Blade Runner both have setpieces demanding of attention, both constructed by frequent nominees.

Predicted Five:

1. The Shape of Water (Paul Denham Austerberry)

2. Dunkirk (Nathan Crowley)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (Dennis Gassner)

4. The Post (Rick Carter)

5. Beauty and the Beast (Sarah Greenwood)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Greatest Showman (Nathan Crowley)

7. Darkest Hour (Sarah Greenwood)

8. Phantom Thread (Mark Tildesley)

Outside Shots:

9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Rick Heinrichs)

10. Murder on the Orient Express (Jim Clay)

11. Downsizing (Stefania Cella)

12. Wonder Woman (Aline Bonetto)

13. War for the Planet of the Apes (James Chinlund)

BEST FILM EDITING

Probably the only tech category that will show love for Get Out, but in terms of bolstering Best Picture nomination chances, it's not a bad category for it. The ACE Eddie Award nominees, while helpful for clarifying frontrunners, split its nominees between genres, which can make shuffling them together to guess the Oscar editing lineup a little tricky (general rule: ignore comedies). Dunkirk is the obvious favorite here. Baby Driver is a little bit of an outside shot, at least on paper, but it's been honored for its editing in more than one place and it's not unprecedented for a movie like it to get in here, and its editing is flashy and noticeable, so I'm actually pretty solid on my predicted five here.

Predicted Five:

1. Dunkirk (Lee Smith)

2. The Post (Michael Kahn and Sarah Broshar)

3. Get Out (Gregory Plotkin)

4. The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)

5. Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss)

Possible Upsets:

6. Blade Runner 2049 (Joe Walker)

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)

8. Call Me by Your Name (Walter Fasano)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

I thought I had a solid five, but that has wavered, though there aren't many alternatives I can say confidently just because they'd be such unconventional choices for Oscar. To me, this seems like a two-way race between Blade Runner 2049 and Dunkirk, the two biggest locks in this category. The former boasts a legendary cinematographer in Roger Deakins and has wowed its small but vocal audience with some striking imagery, and the camerawork in Dunkirk has been similarly lauded, what with its high-in-the-sky practically shot dogfighting sequences, among many others. If Deakins is nominated here, as seems likely, it will be his fourteenth nomination, with no wins yet.

The Shape of Water is a done deal, but the remaining slots are a little tricky. The Oscars nearly never go five for five on the ASC nominees, so we can expect at least one to differ from the list. Darkest Hour, though Bruno Delbonnel is well-liked, has sort of lost some of its prestige might in the deluge of winter award releases, and whether Janusz Kaminski, the oft-nominated Spielberg collaborator, is nominated for The Post really depends on how much AMPAS goes for that movie overall. Call Me by Your Name is gorgeously shot and has been recognized for being so, but it's teetering on the edge with its chances. Rachel Morrison encouragingly got an ASC nod for her work in Mudbound, but that's a Netflix release which the Academy has been averted to so far, and - believe it or not - a woman has never been nominated in this category.

Locks:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)

2. Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)

3. The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)

Fighting for the Final Spots:

4. Call Me by Your Name (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)

5. Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)

6. Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)

7. The Post (Janusz Kaminski)

Outside Shots:

8. The Beguiled (Philippe Le Sourd)

9. Get Out (Toby Oliver)

10. Wonder Wheel (Vittorio Storaro)

11. Logan (John Mathieson)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Here's one where I think I have a solid five. Star Wars, Apes, and Blade Runner all seem like absolute done deals to me. The Shape of Water didn't make the makeup shortlist but they'll want to honor that fantastic practical creature work on Doug Jones so they may as well do it here. Whether or not they go with Dunkirk is the only shaky thing. Oscar loves their CGI, and that film is decidedly in-camera, though it does have a lot of impressive pyrotechnics and such. Plus, it's a Nolan movie, and his films are popular in this category, even ones that aren't very CGI-heavy. That, and this shortlist is pretty lightweight and lame, so it's not a bad choice. And there's like no chance of it in my mind because it's a Netflix original but I'd love to see Okja get some love somewhere.

Predicted Five:

1. War for the Planet of the Apes

2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

3. Blade Runner 2049

4. The Shape of Water

5. Dunkirk

Possible But Unlikely Upsets:

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

7. Okja

Outside Shots:

8. Kong: Skull Island

9. Alien: Covenant

10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

As usual, there seem to be only like four to seven good, likely choices for this category, but the Academy always likes to throw in a weird one that no one likes/remembers/knows. Coco will definitely be the frontrunner, coming from a well-liked and commercially successful Pixar film with lyrics by Robert and Kristin Anderson-Lopez who won for writing "Let It Go" from Frozen (I believe at least one of them is an EGOT as well). The Greatest Showman and Beauty and the Beast were the only true blue musicals released last year, both boasting previous Oscar-winning lyricists - the former with Pasek and Paul who won last year for La La Land, and the latter with Alan Menken as co-writer, who swept this category during the Disney Renaissance. Beauty wasn't entirely adored, but it was one of the biggest box office hits of the year and the music and setpieces are definitely the things that kept people interested, so I expect it to make it here.

After the wonderful Sufjan Stevens song from Call Me by Your Name (which should win), it's guesswork for the bottom spot. I'm guessing the song from Mudbound will eke out a nod here as a consolation prize to Mary J. Blige, who I think will end up being snubbed for supporting actress but could be honored for the song here. The song from Marshall is another possible choice but I have still not met or heard of anyone who actually saw that movie somehow.

Lock:

1. "Remember Me" (Coco)

Safe Bets:

2. "This is Me" (The Greatest Showman)

3. "Evermore" (Beauty and the Beast)

4. "The Mystery of Love" (Call Me by Your Name)

Possible Fifth Spots:

5. "A Mighty River" (Mudbound)

6. "Stand Up for Something" (Marshall)

7. "Prayers For This World" (Cries from Syria)

8. "Never Forget" (Murder on the Orient Express)

Outside Shots:

9. "Visions of Gideon" (Call Me by Your Name)

10. "Tell Me How Long" (Chasing Coral)

11. "You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way" (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

12. "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" (Fifty Shades Darker)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

With the exception of Jonny Greenwood for Phantom Thread, it looks like it'll be another night of honoring previously nominated masters, as is customary really. Desplat is the frontrunner to win as far as I can see, and the Academy loves Hans Zimmer, especially when he works with Nolan. John Williams could potentially have a double nomination (it's happened before) for The Post and The Last Jedi, though I'd say the former is much more likely, but the Academy likes a good Star Wars score, and they'll nominate Williams for movies they don't even like. I'd also put Dario Marianelli, another Oscar vet, for Darkest Hour as fairly likely, considering the score is an element of that film critics have singled out for praise. The upsets are mostly lightweights and blockbusters, so this list of five looks pretty solid to me, but there are always surprises in this category. Especially with Thomas Newman, who scored Victoria and Abdul this year, who we learned last year with Passengers the Academy will nominate even for movies that aren't particularly good or have particularly memorable scores, at least not in comparison to Newman's other work.

Predicted Five:

1. The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)

2. Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)

3. The Post (John Williams)

4. Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)

5. Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)

Possible Upsets:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)

7. Victoria and Abdul (Thomas Newman)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Carter Burwell)

9. Coco (Michael Giacchino)

Outside Shots:

10. Blade Runner 2049 (Johann Johannson)

11. War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Giacchino)

12. Wonder Woman (Rupert Gregson-Williams)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me by Your Name will be nominated and will probably win, only because this category is insanely weak this year. I'm happy that this movie will get some form of recognition most likely, but I guarantee if some generic biopic released in November had been well-liked and commercially successful enough, this sensual gay romantic drama would almost certainly have been dropped. After that, the WGA Award nominees seem to be the best roadmap. They love Aaron Sorkin and Molly's Game has also had a lot of weird late-year push and found itself on some unexpected awards lists so that's in, The Disaster Artist is well-liked and grabbed a nod, and despite its Netflix-ness Mudbound seems to be getting uniform recognition on this front, so it has strong-ish chances. Logan is the least likely of the WGA nominees to get in, and they almost never go five for five with any guild awards, but it could be a welcome surprise. I'm filling the fifth slot with The Beguiled because they do like Sofia Coppola and I feel like that Cannes win should go somewhere here.

Lock:

1. Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)

Very Likely Nominees:

2. Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)

3. The Disaster Artist (Scott Neutstadter and Michael H. Weber)

4. Mudbound (Dee Rees and Virgil Williams)

Fighting For Bottom Spot:

5. The Beguiled (Sofia Coppola)

6. Wonder (Steven Chbosky, Steven Conrad, and Jack Thorne)

7. Logan (James Mangold, Scott Frank, and Michael Green)

8. All the Money in the World (David Scarpa)

Outside Shots:

9. Last Flag Flying (Richard Linklater)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (Hampton Fancher and Michael Green)

11. Wonder Woman (Allan Heinberg and Geoff Johns)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Outside of the requisite locks, the WGA Awards fail us here because Three Billboards was ineligible for their awards but is eligible here, and The Post was eligible but just left out. There's also the issue of The Big Sick, a highly unusual movie to be an Oscar frontrunner (and a Best Picture contender), but its nominations for best cast at the SAG Awards and for a PGA Award (a pretty good predictor of the Best Picture nominees) mean that it has some real chances, and a screenplay nod would help secure that. I still contend that the Academy will latch on to The Post at least in nominations (I'm not really anticipating it to win anything, but then again I expected the same of Bridge of Spies and turned out wrong), both because they love Spielberg/Streep/Hanks and because of the obvious T I M E L Y political angle, so I feel like it'll edge out despite the lack of a WGA nod. I believe that del Toro will get pushed out for The Shape of Water, but he'll probably get acknowledged in the directing category as a consolation prize.

Predicted Five:

1. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)

2. Get Out (Jordan Peele)

3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)

4. The Post (Liz Hannah and Josh Singer)

5. The Big Sick (Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon)

Could Edge Out the Bottom Spots:

6. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor)

7. I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)

8. Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Outside Shots:

9. The Florida Project (Sean Baker)

10. Darkest Hour (Anthony McCarten)

11. Downsizing (Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor)

BEST DIRECTOR

This seems like a straightforward predicted five to me, especially after the DGA nominations. Having a female (Grewig) nominee and a black (Peele) nominee in this category in one year, being honored for a 2003-set female-led coming of age film and a horror movie about racism respectively, sounds almost too cool to be possible for the Academy, but they've both received pretty uniform recognition from awards bodies for their direction (except from HFPA at the Globes, which was very uncharacteristic of them) and their films are both well-liked Best Picture threats. Nolan and del Toro seem a given, and both have a good shot at winning. McDonagh landed the fifth DGA nom for Three Billboards, but that movie's depleting popularity as it grows more controversial and its being seen as more of a writers' and actors' movie (which is dumb, but y'know), I think, will keep him from making it in exchange for a safer pick - like a Spielberg movie about a newspaper!

Predicted Five:

1. Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

2. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

3. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

4. Jordan Peele (Get Out)

5. Steven Spielberg (The Post)

Possible Upsets:

6. Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

7. Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)

8. Sean Baker (The Florida Project)

Outside Shots:

9. Sofia Coppola (The Beguiled)

10. Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)

11. Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)

12. Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

13. Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

I think the SAG Award nominees can mostly guide us here, and the same goes for the rest of the acting categories. In fact, for each of the four acting categories it looks to me that there is a fairly straightforward group of four or sothat are pretty definite, but at least one last one that is a little too shaky (it's also, as I've repeated, not statistically a good idea to go 5 for 5 with nominees from the guild awards; different strokes for different folks and so on). I think Armie Hammer will manage to get in despite no SAG nod, just because I doubt Carell will be honored for such a little-seen role, and Harrelson doesn't seem all that likely to me, only because double acting nominations for films are very rare nowadays at the Oscars, and I don't know if Three Billboards has kept up the momentum it garnered in November and managed to keep until Globes night. The most likely replacement is Christopher Plummer, a beloved actor who will make a notable addition being the stand-in for Kevin Spacey after those high-profile sexual misconduct stories, on top of apparently being legitimately good in the movie.

Safe Bets:

1. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

2. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

3. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

4. Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)

Fighting For Bottom Spots:

5. Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)

6. Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

7. Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Outside Shots:

8. Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)

9. Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)

10. Patrick Stewart (Logan)

11. Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)

12. Ray Romano (The Big Sick)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Once again, going four for five on this category. Alexander Payne is too well-liked with the Academy for them to pass up on an opportunity to honor even his worst-reviewed, least characteristic film to date, and Hong Chau has shown up in too many award things for me to think she isn't getting in. Also, as always, we need to consider that the Academy's unique hatred of Netflix may or may not still be in full force to give us a repeat of Idris Elba missing out for Beasts of No Nation despite a win at SAG, much less a nomination like Blige would get for Mudbound, and they love Octavia, so I'm going with her. And there are plenty of alternatives that are worthy, just not particularly Oscar-friendly.

Locks:

1. Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

2. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Safe Bets:

3. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)

4. Hong Chau (Downsizing)

5. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Very Possible Upsets:

6. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) 

7. Kirsten Dunst (The Beguiled)

8. Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

Outside Shots:

9. Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)

10. Melissa Leo (Novitiate)

11. Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)

12. Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)

BEST ACTOR

The SAG nominees brought us a fairly solid predicted five here, though I'd switch out Denzel's nomination for Daniel Day-Lewis. Phantom Thread came out a tad too late to make a splash with SAG voters in time, but it's been expanding for the last couple weeks and has been getting high praise from those who see it, especially for DDL's supposed last performance before retiring, and Roman J. Israel was a lukewarm effort that critics and audiences were both a little soft on. After that it's fairly smooth sailing, with Oldman as the most obvious lock and probable winner at this juncture. The only person in the remaining four that I'd say is vulnerable is James Franco, given the recent resurfacing of his various sexual misconduct allegations. That said, those accusations have not been quite as explosive as other high-profile cases from the past few months, and his performance as Tommy Wiseau is well-liked and garnering awards and nods consistently. There are a few relatively lightweight ones that could take his place though. Maybe they'll finally nominate Hanks for the first time in 18 years and I can pretend it's for Captain Phillips.

Predicted Five:

1. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

2. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)

3. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)

4. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

5. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)

Possible Upsets:

6. Tom Hanks (The Post)

7. Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

8. Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)

Outside Shots:

9. Robert Pattinson (Good Time)

10. Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman or Logan)

11. Andrew Garfield (Breathe)

BEST ACTRESS

Another category where I feel quite solid in my predicted five. Once again, the SAG awards mostly played to expectations except for the weird inclusion of Judi Dench for Victoria and Abdul. Oscar does like Stephen Frears, uncompromising dramas about royalty, and the Dame herself, but in this particular climate, I'd think Streep's portrayal of a principled but scared Washington Post reporter will resonate more, and will give Meryl her... twentieth nomination, I think? Jesus. Anyway, come Oscar night, I expect the main competition to be between Frances McDormand's rough-around-the-edges no-nonsense Midwestern bereaved mommy and my homegirl Saoirse Ronan's pitch-perfect angsty Sacramento teen. I also can't imagine a scenario where Robbie and Hawkins miss out, so for probably the first time in history Meryl is the only one who isn't completely safe here. (PS - wouldn't you love to trade Oscar nominations for some actors? Like give Meryl this one in exchange for rescinding her nomination for something stupid, like... Into the Woods or something)

Predicted Five:

1. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

2. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

3. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

4. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

5. Meryl Streep (The Post)

Possible (But Kinda Unlikely, IMO) Upsets:

6. Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)

7. Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game)

8. Nicole Kidman (The Beguiled)

Outside Shots:

9. Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

10. Jennifer Lawrence (mother!)

11. Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

12. Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)

13. Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman)

BEST PICTURE

Here we are, folx, the main event. This year's best picture race is nowhere near as all over the place as it's been in the previous few years, in that there are, to me, a good seven movies that are almost definitely going to get nominated. Academy rules with Best Picture are finicky, so this could end up having anywhere between eight and ten nominees, though it pretty much never reaches ten. The ones at the bottom of my list - The Big Sick, Mudbound, and I, Tonya - all have at least a PGA nod and/or a SAG casting nod to bolster their chances of getting in, which doesn't mean some of the more periphery films in the "possible upsets" section are necessarily definitely not getting in, but just that there's more precedent with the others. I've seen Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, and The Florida Project mentioned on a lot of people's guess lists, but I feel like those three were too lukewarmly received, released too late, and not pushed hard enough outside of Dafoe, respectively, to end up making it here. But I have been surprised before.

Locks:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Lady Bird

3. Dunkirk

4. The Shape of Water

5. The Post

6. Get Out

7. Call Me by Your Name

Probable Nominees:

8. The Big Sick

9. I, Tonya

10. Mudbound

Possible Upsets:

11. Darkest Hour

12. Phantom Thread

13. The Florida Project

Outside Shots:

14. All the Money in the World

15. The Beguiled

16. Blade Runner 2049

17. Wonder Woman

18. Logan

Well, there you go, my full predictions for the Oscar nominees in more detail than possibly needed. Check back on this post on Tuesday, January 23rd to calculate how poorly I did, and keep your eyes peeled for my predictions for the winners next month before the ceremony on March 4th.

I love you.

"The Misfortune Teller" (One-Act Link)

Strange to see a non-Oscars/movie related post on this site, I know, but I've been sitting on this thing for a couple weeks and thought it might be a good idea to share it. Below is a link to The Misfortune Teller, a 34-page one-act play I wrote for a college playwriting course this past semester. Though I don't have much intention to publish it, I'm proud of it and enjoy how it turned out, so I thought I'd share it online for everybody. This is the first piece of writing approaching formality that I've posted publicly before, so if there are better ways of sharing these things that you know of, feel free to tell me and I'll heed your words for future works. I'll talk about what it's about and all that jazz below.


Click here to read it.


The Misfortune Teller (working title) is a one-act play with five scenes and four characters. It's centered on Nathan and Martha, a couple in their twenties who are planning a big move to Atlanta after Nathan and their roommate Ben get a job offer there, a plan which is derailed when Martha's mother Donna, a self-avowed psychic, predicts that the trip to Atlanta will spell disaster for their relationship. Martha grows weary after hearing this, but Nathan is unconvinced, and believes Donna to be a fraud.

For this play, I wanted to explore how people reconcile differing beliefs in relationships, and was inspired by my generation's curious embrace of various informal "mystic" belief systems - astrology, mediums, psychics, chakras, etc. As someone who doesn't believe in those things, I wanted to try my best to not make any one character the hero or villain. I didn't want Nathan to be "the smart one", or for Martha to be unreasonable or for Donna to be a clear huckster. My goal was to present these characters as they were, and let the audience judge them based on their own experiences and beliefs. Whether or not I've succeeded in doing that is up to you, I guess.

I'm not actively pursuing a career in playwriting, but I enjoy all forms of writing and would like to write a play again sometime. This is a second draft (actually more like third or fourth, but the second complete draft after a wave of changes), so there are some errors here and there. I'm considering coming back to this work and maybe trying to revise it again, but not for a long while. For now, I'd like it to just exist and be out there and I welcome any feedback and constructive criticism you'd be willing to give me on the writing and content.

I hope you enjoy, and thank you to anyone who takes the time to read the whole thing.
(PS - My December predictions for the technical Oscar categories will be up in a few days, if you were wondering)

90th Academy Awards - December 2017 Nominations Predictions - MAIN CATEGORIES

It's been a good while since I've written anything on this site, as I've been mostly focusing on writing video reviews rather than on here, but I'm just gonna go ahead like nothing happened and post my predictions for this year's Oscar nominees. Precursor award nominees have begun to come out, enough so that we can gauge about where the conversation is at in the major categories (directing, acting, writing), but not yet to the point where we can make very specific predictions about nominees for every category, which will be later in December and in early January when guilds name their nominees. So far, the Los Angeles and New York film critics circles have announced their runners-up and winners, the National Board of Review and American Film Institute have named their top 10 of the year, and the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards announced their nominees in the past week. The most useful to us so far when it comes to predicting the Oscar nominees is still probably the LA and New York critics organizations. The Golden Globes are merely the opinion of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which is an extremely small sampling of people with particular and specific tastes, and only set the stage for the Oscars insofar as being a movie award show a month beforehand. Critics Choice sheds more light on the positions of critics, but for one thing it's not like we don't already have other ways of seeing that (critics circle awards by city, as well as Rotten Tomatoes of course), but critical acclaim doesn't always necessarily guarantee or predict Oscar nominees. The NBR and AFI lists are definitely a decent litmus test for what "prestigious" people in Hollywood loved this year, but they aren't historically incredibly predictive, though they do help us out with rounding out some nominees a bit. The recent numerous additions to the Academy membership, skewing young, female, and nonwhite, are also of possible significant weight in guessing what will make it.

I'm gonna keep this post pretty simple. I'm only talking about the major categories in this one, and I'll offer some brief commentary for each category if it warrants it, then list my predicted five. Okay, let's do it.


~~~BEST PICTURE~~~

As always, the writing and directing nominees/winners will determine Best Picture more clearly later on. Right now, the major threats for winning this one (and the ones that are almost guaranteed to be nominated) I think are Dunkirk, The Post, Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, and Get Out. Ones I think are fairly likely to round out the bottom three or four nominees are Lady Bird and The Shape of Water, which are also pretty surefire nominees but I think have a smaller chance of winning. Assuming the nominee list annoyingly ends up at being eight like usual, I see that bottom spot being taken by Darkest Hour or Mudbound (maybe they'll bring it to nine, but I don't want to overestimate the Academy's willingness to give a BP nomination to a Netflix movie). Phantom Thread and I, Tonya are other outside shots I could see taking it.

Locks:
1. Dunkirk
2. Call Me by Your Name
3. The Post
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Very Likely:
5. Get Out
6. The Shape of Water
7. Lady Bird

Fighting for Bottom Spots:
8. Darkest Hour
9. Phantom Thread
10. Mudbound

Outside Shots:
11. I, Tonya
12. All the Money in the World
12. Downsizing


~~~BEST DIRECTOR~~~

As has been the case lately, there are plenty of completely plausible nominees for this category, but it all depends on how vanilla the Academy decides to be with their tastes. I've tried to blend optimism with realism as much as I can, but I'm not sure.

Locks:
1. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
2. Steven Spielberg (The Post)

Very Likely:
3. Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
4. Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
5. Jordan Peele (Get Out)
6. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
7. Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards)

Outside Shots:
8. Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
9. Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)


~~~BEST ACTOR~~~

I really can't imagine my predicted five changing at all, honestly. Franco's spot is the most in trouble.

Predicted Five:
1. Tom Hanks (The Post)
2. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
3. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
4. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
5. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)

Might Beat Out Franco:
6. Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
7. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
8. Robert Pattinson (Good Time)


~~~BEST ACTRESS~~

This is another one where I kind of can't imagine my predicted five ending up different, but the bottom spot may be in contention here as well. Numbers 6-8 would all be perfectly fine choices, but just kind of underwhelming considering the top five.

Predicted Five:
1. Saiorse Ronan (Lady Bird)
2. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards)
3. Meryl Streep (The Post)
4. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
5. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

Might Beat Out Margot:
6. Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game)
7. Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
8. Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman)


~~~BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR~~~

Usually this category is filled to the brim with worthy and plausible nominees. This year, I think it's come down to three locks, a few that will battle it out for the bottom two spots, and then a lot of lightweight ones I don't find incredibly likely below that. That said, Dafoe has won literally every supporting actor award he could have so far, and he already looks like a surefire win even if Oscar most likely won't embrace The Florida Project as a whole.

Locks:
1. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
2. Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
3. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards)

All Fairly Likely, Will Fight For Bottom Spots:
4. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
5. Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
6. Bob Odenkirk (The Post)
7. Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
8. Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)

Longer Shots:
9. Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
10. Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
11. Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards)
12. Patrick Stewart (Logan)


~~~BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS~~~

Locks:
1. Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
2. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Likely Nominees:
3. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
4. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)

Fighting For Bottom Spot:
5. Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
6. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
7. Melissa Leo (Novitiate)

Longer Shots:
8. Hong Chau (Downsizing)
9. Catherine Keener (Get Out)
10. Tatiana Maslany (Stronger)
11. Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)


~~~BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY~~~

One of the most bittersweet rarities of Oscar season is when there are so many respectable choices for original screenplay, and that is the case this year. While I'm fairly certain of my predicted five, plenty of ways this could go that could ultimately alter the course of the Best Picture field.

The Predicted Five:
1. Get Out (Jordan Peele)
2. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
4. The Post (Liz Hannah and Josh Singer)
5. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor)

Could Shake Things Up:
6. Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
7. The Big Sick (Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon)
8. The Florida Project (Sean Baker)
9. I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)

Outside Shots:
10. Darkest Hour (Anthony McCarten)
11. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
12. Baby Driver (Edgar Wright)
13. Good Time (Safdie Brothers)
14. Downsizing (Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor)


~~~BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY~~~

Lots of possibilities in this one, but only because it's so bereft of legitimate competition. Call Me by Your Name is the only clear lock and the only adapted script of 2017 that seems to stand a chance with the Academy and is actually widely liked. It's not that none of these are deserving, but when left with so few films with stereotypical Oscar qualities, we've got some lighter entries than normal in this one.

Lock:
1. Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)

Likely Nominees:
2. Mudbound (Dee Rees and Virgil Williams)
3. The Disaster Artist (Scott Neutstadter and Michael H. Weber)
4. Molly's Game (Aaron Sorking)

Outside Shots:
5. The Beguiled (Sofia Coppola)
6. Stronger (John Pollono)
7. Last Flag Flying (Richard Linklater)
8. All the Money in the World (David Scarpa)

Mainstream Releases That May Score Attention:
9. Blade Runner 2049 (Hampton Fancher and Michael Green)
10. Logan (James Mangold, Michael Green and Scott Frank)
11. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Rian Johnson)
12. Wonder Woman (Allan Heinberg, Jason Fuchs and Zack Snyder)


~~~BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM~~~

Coco will win. This may be the first year in a while that there will only be three animated nominees instead of five; mainstream competition is mediocre and Academy doesn't historically pay enough attention to quality indie/foreign animated releases brought out with not much bluster, of which there are many this year.

Lock:
1. Coco

Likely Nominees:
2. The Breadwinner
3. Ferdinand

Fighting for Bottom Spots:
4. The Lego Batman Movie
5. Loving Vincent
6. Mary and the Witch's Flower
7. The Boss Baby
8. Despicable Me 3
9. A Silent Voice



I'm abstaining from Foreign Language Film until the shortlist is posted, which will be soon. Anyway, these are the main ones. I'll be addressing the technicals (VFX, editing, cinematography, design, score/song, sound) in an upcoming second blog post soon.

"Spider-Man: Homecoming" Review

Spider-Man: Homecoming is the sixteenth film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, the sixth theatrical Spider-Man film, is directed by Jon Watts (Clown, Cop Car) in his big-budget debut, and stars a large ensemble cast including Tom Holland, Robert Downey Jr., Michael Keaton, Marisa Tomei, Jacob Batalon, Laura Harrier, Zendaya, Donald Glover, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Favreau, Donald Glover, Tony Revolori, and Martin Starr, with about a billion other supporting players. The film is the third cinematic iteration of Spider-Man since Sam Raimi's trilogy that began in 2002, and follows the failed would-be-trilogy by Marc Webb that began in 2012 with The Amazing Spider-Man. It is a joint project between Sony/Columbia Pictures, who hold official ownership of the Spider-Man character, and Marvel Studios, who have inducted the character into their Avengers lore after introducing him in the second act of last year's Captain America: Civil War. I think it's important to get all these franchise details out of the way straight out the gate, considering how complicated these superhero storylines are getting both in terms of their actual overarching fictional stories and the complex web of property ownership and corporate slip-ups that have led to so many different versions of these tights-wearing crime-fighters appearing on the big screen, small screen, and comic pages in the 21st century.

As far as actual plot goes, Spider-Man: Homecoming follows Peter Parker (Holland) shortly after the events of Civil War, where he has been recruited by Downey Jr.'s Tony Stark/Iron Man to be a friendly neighborhood Spider-Man, giving his assistant Happy (Favreau) daily updates on his small-time crime-fighting activities on the streets of Manhattan, an assignment Peter covers up at school and with his aunt May (Tomei) as the "Stark internship". Peter is dismayed that Stark falls short of offering him a formal role in the Avengers, but is nonetheless excited to be a secret superhero. The film follows his struggle to balance regular high school life - getting a date for homecoming dance, keeping his identity secret from his friends and family, participating in an academic decathlon - with his discovery of a middle-aged man named Adrian Toomes (Keaton), who has been illegally collecting alien technology leftover from Avenger battles to craft high-tech weapons and become the supervillain Vulture, a threat Peter is eager to stop on his own, much to the chagrin of Stark and his best friend Ned (Batalon), who just wants him to focus on being a cool kid.

The biggest relief in this film is that it skips past the origin story of Spider-Man, so the first act doesn't revolve around Peter getting bitten by a radioactive spider or watching Uncle Ben get murdered. Instead, the film plops us right in the middle of Parker's superhero life, and we get our insights into his character and the world around him through his relationships with supporting characters and through Holland's spirited performance. Holland is arguably the main highlight of Homecoming. Especially in contrast to the dark, brooding, "mature" Spider-Man from Andrew Garfield's iteration, it's nice to see a Spider-Man who not only exudes youthful exuberance, but just plain enjoys being Spider-Man. Holland is funny, sweet, incredibly charismatic, and toward the third act even has moments of surprising depth, allowing Peter to exhibit the flaws of any high school kid, being at times dangerously eager to face the world head-on as he attempts to make sense of it. I find him to be just about as good a Spider-Man as Tobey Maguire, though they are admittedly accomplishing very different things.

Peter/Spider-Man is supported by a remarkable ensemble cast of colorful characters, which is rich, finely wrought, diverse, and always fun to watch. Peter's friend Ned garners possibly the most consistent number of laughs out of any character, and Jacob Batalon is a young actor with impeccable comedic timing who is also extremely charming. Robert Downey Jr. has made a believable transition as the snarky, full-of-himself Tony Stark to one that is trying to break through the snark to be the cautious, wise, almost parent-like Stark that we got a glimpse of in Civil War. Michael Keaton strikes a convincing balance between empathetic and intimidating as Toomes/Vulture, who is one of the best-written villains in a cinematic universe plagued with uninteresting, bland, poorly written villains. The Spider-Man universe has always been unique in that many of his adversaries genuinely respect him and know that they're wrong, but have a misconstrued understanding of what they deserve/have to do. Keaton's character has a clear and even understandable motivation rooted in a personal desire to keep his family life afloat in the wake of sudden unemployment that has left him excusing his reprehensible morals for a perceived deserving rebuke of the rich and powerful's oppression of the little guy. It's refreshingly layered stuff for a Marvel villain, and Keaton does it great justice.

The film is also peppered with numerous smaller supporting players and bit parts that somehow feel earned and properly explored for a first film in a planned trilogy despite their short screen time. Homecoming keeps the laborious exposition at an impressive minimum considering the number of narrative gears turned and characters introduced. And those bit parts are well utilized - Martin Starr plays Peter's decathlon leader with his idiosyncratic grasp of perfect deadpan, Zendaya is charming and dryly funny as the sarcastic MJ, Donald Glover finely portrays a small-time criminal in the wrong place at the wrong time, and Hannibal Buress plays Holland's gym teacher who somehow managed to elicit belly laughs from my entire theater audience with just three lines of dialogue in the entire film.

The effectiveness of these characters is also bolstered by the well-constructed world they inhabit. This is the first MCU film where the "cinematic universe" concept has been used effectively for me. The elements in other previous Marvel movies meant to interconnect these franchises within franchises to each other have been inclusions of outside characters, quick tangential references to Infinity Stones, and in-jokes. Homecoming has all of those in short supply, but it also manages to make us really feel as though Peter Parker is going to high school in a world that has superheroes. Students play bang/marry/kill with their favorite Avengers, a civics teacher discusses the Sokovia Accords in class, and Captain America is the star of industrial videos on lab safety and puberty shown in classes. The high school world in general is wonderfully fleshed out, with my favorite detail being the wooden, bewildered students on the low-budget student news show (which gives us what I think is the first appearance of Comic Sans in a blockbuster film). There is quite a bit of downtime in this movie, with much of the movie's narrative leg work focused less on the squabbles of deities and giant beams shooting into the sky and more about the internal and interpersonal struggles of its main character. Especially the first half of this movie feels like a John Hughes movie with superheroes in it. Young children may find it boring and prefer the loud, colorful, fast-paced action they're used to in these Marvel flicks, but I appreciate the time this movie takes with its characters.

Of course, you won't miss out on any fun action sequences with Spider-Man: Homecoming. It's hard to come down from the high of action-directing and editing in Baby Driver (though this is total recency bias talking), but the action in this movie is standout for a Marvel film. They're decently crafted, well paced, lots of fun and peppered with good-natured humor, propped up by Michael Giacchino's thrilling score, and have a much sharper sense of stakes than other typical superhero films. An element of modern superhero movies I've often bemoaned is their tendency to inflate their conflicts into world-shattering scenarios with demigods punching and shooting at each other with no real visual consequences. Homecoming never even makes it outside of Manhattan, and while the visual effects here are as dazzling and about as plentiful as any other Marvel fare, the stakes here are entirely personal for Peter. Our villain is not concerned with literally destroying the entire universe like most Marvel villains, but rather just doing illegal and immoral things to keep his family safe. Remarkably, when your villain's to-do list shrinks from "end all existence" to simply "kill Peter Parker", the level of believability of their success increases, and any encounter with them becomes vastly more tense and exciting. There is one scene in particular in the third act (that I will not spoil the details of because it's actually a pretty great twist) involving Keaton's character and Peter that brims with uncommon tension for a Marvel film simply because of the fact that we have been made to believe this villain could try anything at any time. Another scene involving Spider-Man having to save people trapped inside the Washington Monument is surprisingly heart-pounding despite its relative simplicity. These may sound like small differences, but they are meaningful.

Overall, Spider-Man: Homecoming does not reinvent the wheel as far as blockbuster superhero movies go, and is not even the best Spider-Man film in my opinion (although this and the Sam Raimi films are both excellent at achieving very different things), but it gets a lot right and avoids a lot that could have been trite, boring, or uninspired. It's not perfect, but it's impressive that a film with six screenwriters could be a more focused and complete product than many other big-budget action flicks of our time. The most important thing it gets right, and the main reason for its success, is that it steeps all of its conflicts, be they on the small scale of high school dramas or on the larger scale of extraterrestrial arms dealing, in interesting, likable characters. Tom Holland and his mosaic of supporting characters make Homecoming eminently watchable from start to finish. Watts and company's tight grasp on the source material combine with the film's consistent humor, exciting action, strong characterization, and beguiling sense of charm and breezy fun to make this a superlative modern superhero movie.

I recommend this film to anyone looking for a fast, fun time at the movies who likes good characters, good-natured humor, and some sleek and decently directed action. It may be as meticulously manufactured and packaged as any other Marvel product, but it reeks of good intentions and gets it right far more often than it gets it wrong. Upon a second viewing I'm considering bumping this up to an A-, but for right now this is getting a B+, albeit an enthusiastic one. I look forward to seeing this Spider-Man in theaters again.

Grade: B+