With all that said, let's have fun trying to guess the outcomes of this meaningless show. I'll be starting with the "smaller" categories and move my way up to Best Picture, with a short explanation for each category. All the major precursor awards have announced their nominees so this is about as educated a guess I could make on all these categories. I'll be listing my guesses in order of most to least probable in my opinion.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The short categories are notoriously difficult to guess, at least if you're like me and don't live in Los Angeles and don't get access to the eligible short films during the actual calendar year (I did manage to see some good shorts at a festival this year, but none of them ended up being eligible for these awards). So, all that we laymen have to go on is the opinion of more "connected" people, and the subject matter/style of the short (and in fewer cases, the pedigree of the creators). Of the dozen or so shorts being considered, the closest thing to a frontrunner I can determine is DeKalb Elementary, a fictionalized account of a real-life 9-1-1 call made during a school shooting incident, should resonate the most with AMPAS voters.
Predicted Five (Though It Could Go Any Way Really):
Predicted Five (Though It Could Go Any Way Really):
1. DeKalb Elementary
2. Watu Wote / All of Us
3. Facing Mecca
4. The Eleven O'Clock
5. The Silent Child
Other Possible Nominees:
6. Rise of a Star
7. My Nephew Emmett
8. Witnesses
8. Witnesses
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
I haven't seen any of the films on the shortlist for this category either, but luckily animated pre-movie shorts are coming back into the mainstream (Disney, Pixar, Illumination, and I think Dreamworks are all doing them, right?), so establishing pedigree and art style the Academy gravitates toward is a little more doable in this category than live-action. The frontrunner according to all who've seen it is In a Heartbeat, a CG short produced by the Ringling College of Art and Design about a closeted gay boy whose heart pops out of his chest as he tries to make his romantic affection known to another boy. A nomination for this is essentially a lock, and it's the favorite to win as far as I can tell.
Predicted Five:
Predicted Five:
1. In a Heartbeat
2. Dear Basketball
3. Negative Space
4. Lou
5. Lost Property Office
Other Possible Nominees:
6. Cradle
7. Fox and the Whale
8. Revolting Rhymes
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
I have actually seen a whopping one of my guesses for this category - Ten Meter Tower, which is really interesting and well-done and I believe you can watch it for free online in some official capacity, but I'm not sure. Once again, other than that one, completely going off the opinions of others here, but here's what I got.
Predicted Five:
Predicted Five:
1. Alone
2. Ten Meter Tower
3. Heroin(e)
4. Ram Dass, Going Home
5. Edith + Eddie
Other Possible Nominees:
6. 116 Cameras
7. Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
8. Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets
9. Traffic Stop
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Academy's shortlist for the Foreign Language Film category is always devastatingly limiting, and typically the release of the shortlist causes a significant shift in the conversation of what will be nominated, as it typically involves the ousting of several deserving entries. Here, the frontrunner has stayed more or less the same since its Palme d'Or win at Cannes last year, and that is Ruben Ostlund's The Square, a twisted satire of the modern art world, the surest lock of the bunch, with Chile's A Fantastic Woman also remaining fairly untouchable, I'd say. Israel and Russia's entries look solid as well, but the fifth spot is disputed among a crop of choices that are each unlikely for their own reasons. Germany's In the Fade, while not receiving glowing reviews from critics, is gaining popularity and relevance given its subject matter relating to neo-Nazis, so it could be a threat. Also, the Academy is always tricky with this category, at pretty much every stage leading up to Oscar night. So we shall see.
Locks:
1. The Square (Sweden)
2. A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
Seem Like Safe Bets:
3. Foxtrot (Israel)
4. Loveless (Russia)
Vying for the Fifth Spot:
5. The Wound (South Africa)
6. In the Fade (Germany)
7. The Insult (Lebanon)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Lots of strong contenders and frontrunners this year, with a unique variety of subject matter (and admirably, not all of them stooped in political self-seriousness, though there's nothing wrong with that). The most likely three to me look to be Jane, an affectionate portrait of primate behavior expert Jane Goodall; Faces Places, an exploration of art and expression with French New Wave director Agnes Varda and visual artist JR; and City of Ghosts, a doc centering on the ongoing conflict in Syria that has been noted for its graphic, raw, and unrestrained imagery. After that, it's a toss-up between a gaggle of nearly equally matched picks. And once again, the Academy is not always easy to predict here.
Locks If Ever There Were:
Locks If Ever There Were:
1. Jane
2. Faces Places
Fairly Safe Bets:
3. City of Ghosts
4. Icarus
All Possible to Round Out the Five:
5. Strong Island
6. Last Men in Aleppo
7. Human Flow
8. LA 92
Outside Shots:
9. Chasing Coral
10. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
11. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
12. Ex Libris: The New York Public Library
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Anyone else had the feeling that, stylistically at least, the winners for this category have lately been 1. easy to spot as a frontrunner from a mile away (Coco has been my #1 since like July), and 2. uniformly similar given how many varied and interesting visual styles the nominees have had as of late? Don't get me wrong, Coco seems great (haven't seen it yet) and people are in love with it, and it's not like the last few haven't been worthy winners. Just a peeve of mine; wish they'd branch out. Consider this - did you know the Academy hasn't picked a non-CG film in this category since 2006, and has only chosen one 2D film all the way back in 2003? CG is inarguably the dominant style in mainstream animation and style doesn't ultimately determine the best movie, but whatever.
Anyway, Coco will win. My top four guesses are pretty solid to me; the fifth spot is a competition between really underwhelming choices. Kind of a weak year for animation in terms of number of really worthy choices. But The Boss Baby might get nominated, which is funny.
Lock:
Anyway, Coco will win. My top four guesses are pretty solid to me; the fifth spot is a competition between really underwhelming choices. Kind of a weak year for animation in terms of number of really worthy choices. But The Boss Baby might get nominated, which is funny.
Lock:
1. Coco
Safe Bets:
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. The Lego Batman Movie
Fair Possibilities for Fifth Spot:
5. Mary and the Witch's Flower
5. Mary and the Witch's Flower
6. The Boss Baby
7. Ferdinand
8. In This Corner of the World
Outside Shots:
9. Despicable Me 3
10. Cars 3
11. Captain Underpants
12. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales
BEST SOUND MIXING
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing traditionally go hand in hand as far as nominees, usually with a minimum of three out of the five repeating. Mixing is generally reserved for bigger Best Picture threats, and the Academy loves war movies in both sound categories. Musicals also usually make an appearance here if the Academy likes them enough, and while neither are Best Picture fodder, The Greatest Showman has secured some late-year praise with a good showing at the Globes despite mixed reception, and Beauty and the Beast was a global box office phenomenon grossing $1.2 billion but has a better chance showing up in other craft categories we'll talk about later. It was also an early release from all the way back in March, so we'll see which one they go for. I'm banking on recency bias and going with Showman.
Also worth remembering, as with many of these less huge categories, that precedence and traditional guessing doesn't always pan out as with the sexier categories. We could get another surprise like last year with the nomination of 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, a Michael Bay film and an exceedingly rare Oscar-nominated January, in this category.
Also worth remembering, as with many of these less huge categories, that precedence and traditional guessing doesn't always pan out as with the sexier categories. We could get another surprise like last year with the nomination of 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, a Michael Bay film and an exceedingly rare Oscar-nominated January, in this category.
Locks:
1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
Predicted Remainders:
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. The Greatest Showman
5. The Shape of Water
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049
7. Beauty and the Beast
8. Wonder Woman
9. Get Out
Outside Shots:
10. War for the Planet of the Apes
11. The Post
12. Detroit
BEST SOUND EDITING
Once again, Mixing and Editing generally share a good number of nominees, so there are some repeats here. I actually think both Dunkirk and Baby Driver both have even better shots of winning in this category than mixing. Editing is generally where voters are more keen on blockbusters, as this category is more concerned with the creation and recording of sounds rather than the arrangement and management of them. Dunkirk is still the favorite to win, as all war movies go, and sci-fi outings like Shape of Water and Blade Runner have a better shot here. However, because of the openness to blockbuster choices here, Wonder Woman and Apes are also much more realistic choices than in the previous one.
Locks:
1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
Predicted Remainders:
3. Blade Runner 2049
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. The Shape of Water
Other Distinct Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman
7. War for the Planet of the Apes
8. Get Out
Outside Shots:
9. Detroit
10. Logan
11. Only the Brave
12. Beauty and the Beast
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
I will forever point out the stupidity in only having three nominee slots instead of the usual five in the category for makeup, a thing that literally every single live-action film has. Beyond that, the Academy's shortlist is incredibly restrictive (we're picking from seven possible nominees here), and usually the picks completely upend the general conversation around possible nominees. Luckily, once again, the year-long frontrunner of Darkest Hour, in which Gary Oldman is transformed into a pretty convincing Winston Churchill, has remained on top, with the bottom two slots slipping in and out. I'm filling out the three slots with I, Tonya, since it's just shy of a Best Picture threat (and also the makeup is a widely praised element of the film), and Wonder, because where else is such a critically adored, commercially successful but overall "lightweight" choice meant to score this year but here?
Lock:
Lock:
1. Darkest Hour
The Probable Remainders:
2. Wonder
2. Wonder
3. I, Tonya
The Others, in Order of Possibility to Upset:
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
5. Bright
6. Victoria and Abdul
7. Ghost in the Shell
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Two words make up the general rule of thumb for this category: period pieces. The Costume Designers Guild Awards are generally good indicators of what is to be nominated at the Oscars, but their nominees for achievement in contemporary costume design can be almost completely ignored. You will unfortunately never see a movie like Lady Bird getting an Oscar nomination for its subtle but perfect dressing of its early 2000s California-based cast of characters. Or at least, not for another 60 years when we can consider Lady Bird a period piece. Anyway, a healthy mix of the period and the fantastical is a generally good bet, and while Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread is the current favorite, The Shape of Water and The Greatest Showman have a lot to show for their period costuming.
On the genre front, I'd put Wonder Woman and Beauty and the Beast at the forefront of that conversation, though the former is undercut by its superhero genre and the latter because Jacqueline Durran also seems like a semi-safe bet for her work on Darkest Hour. While that movie is not only a period piece but a World War II movie, it screams Oscar technical category takeover, but it didn't get a CDGA nom like Beauty did and the live-action reboots of Disney animated classics have done well in this category (see also Maleficent and Cinderella), so I'm opting for that one.
Lock:
On the genre front, I'd put Wonder Woman and Beauty and the Beast at the forefront of that conversation, though the former is undercut by its superhero genre and the latter because Jacqueline Durran also seems like a semi-safe bet for her work on Darkest Hour. While that movie is not only a period piece but a World War II movie, it screams Oscar technical category takeover, but it didn't get a CDGA nom like Beauty did and the live-action reboots of Disney animated classics have done well in this category (see also Maleficent and Cinderella), so I'm opting for that one.
Lock:
1. Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)
Predicted Rest of Five:
2. Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)
3. The Greatest Showman (Ellen Mirojnick)
4. The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)
5. Wonder Woman (Lindy Hemming)
Other Possible Nominees:
6. Victoria and Abdul (Consolata Boyle)
7. Murder on the Orient Express (Alexandra Byrne)
8. Dunkirk (Jeffrey Kurland)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (Renee April)
Outside Shots:
10. Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)
11. I, Tonya (Jennifer Johnson)
12. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Michael Kaplan)
13. The Beguiled (Stacey Battat)
14. The Post (Ann Roth)
15. Wonderstruck (Sandy Powell)
15. Wonderstruck (Sandy Powell)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Another category where non-period/genre films can generally be tossed aside, a claim I'm prepared to be incorrect about given that last year's winner had a contemporary setting. On the period front, The Post designer Rick Carter is beloved by the Academy, his last win being an upset in 2013 for Lincoln, also hemmed by Spielberg, so that seems likely to me. Nathan Crowley worked with Chris Nolan to perfectly recreate the beaches of Dunkirk for Dunkirk, boats and planes and all, a technical achievement that will most likely be honored here. Then, getting into the realm of genre, The Shape of Water is as sure a bet as you can get, and Beauty and the Beast and Blade Runner both have setpieces demanding of attention, both constructed by frequent nominees.
Predicted Five:
Predicted Five:
1. The Shape of Water (Paul Denham Austerberry)
2. Dunkirk (Nathan Crowley)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (Dennis Gassner)
4. The Post (Rick Carter)
5. Beauty and the Beast (Sarah Greenwood)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Greatest Showman (Nathan Crowley)
7. Darkest Hour (Sarah Greenwood)
8. Phantom Thread (Mark Tildesley)
Outside Shots:
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Rick Heinrichs)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (Jim Clay)
11. Downsizing (Stefania Cella)
12. Wonder Woman (Aline Bonetto)
13. War for the Planet of the Apes (James Chinlund)
BEST FILM EDITING
Probably the only tech category that will show love for Get Out, but in terms of bolstering Best Picture nomination chances, it's not a bad category for it. The ACE Eddie Award nominees, while helpful for clarifying frontrunners, split its nominees between genres, which can make shuffling them together to guess the Oscar editing lineup a little tricky (general rule: ignore comedies). Dunkirk is the obvious favorite here. Baby Driver is a little bit of an outside shot, at least on paper, but it's been honored for its editing in more than one place and it's not unprecedented for a movie like it to get in here, and its editing is flashy and noticeable, so I'm actually pretty solid on my predicted five here.
Predicted Five:
1. Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
2. The Post (Michael Kahn and Sarah Broshar)
3. Get Out (Gregory Plotkin)
4. The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
5. Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss)
Possible Upsets:
6. Blade Runner 2049 (Joe Walker)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
8. Call Me by Your Name (Walter Fasano)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
I thought I had a solid five, but that has wavered, though there aren't many alternatives I can say confidently just because they'd be such unconventional choices for Oscar. To me, this seems like a two-way race between Blade Runner 2049 and Dunkirk, the two biggest locks in this category. The former boasts a legendary cinematographer in Roger Deakins and has wowed its small but vocal audience with some striking imagery, and the camerawork in Dunkirk has been similarly lauded, what with its high-in-the-sky practically shot dogfighting sequences, among many others. If Deakins is nominated here, as seems likely, it will be his fourteenth nomination, with no wins yet.
The Shape of Water is a done deal, but the remaining slots are a little tricky. The Oscars nearly never go five for five on the ASC nominees, so we can expect at least one to differ from the list. Darkest Hour, though Bruno Delbonnel is well-liked, has sort of lost some of its prestige might in the deluge of winter award releases, and whether Janusz Kaminski, the oft-nominated Spielberg collaborator, is nominated for The Post really depends on how much AMPAS goes for that movie overall. Call Me by Your Name is gorgeously shot and has been recognized for being so, but it's teetering on the edge with its chances. Rachel Morrison encouragingly got an ASC nod for her work in Mudbound, but that's a Netflix release which the Academy has been averted to so far, and - believe it or not - a woman has never been nominated in this category.
Locks:
The Shape of Water is a done deal, but the remaining slots are a little tricky. The Oscars nearly never go five for five on the ASC nominees, so we can expect at least one to differ from the list. Darkest Hour, though Bruno Delbonnel is well-liked, has sort of lost some of its prestige might in the deluge of winter award releases, and whether Janusz Kaminski, the oft-nominated Spielberg collaborator, is nominated for The Post really depends on how much AMPAS goes for that movie overall. Call Me by Your Name is gorgeously shot and has been recognized for being so, but it's teetering on the edge with its chances. Rachel Morrison encouragingly got an ASC nod for her work in Mudbound, but that's a Netflix release which the Academy has been averted to so far, and - believe it or not - a woman has never been nominated in this category.
Locks:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
2. Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
3. The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
Fighting for the Final Spots:
4. Call Me by Your Name (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)
5. Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)
6. Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
7. The Post (Janusz Kaminski)
Outside Shots:
8. The Beguiled (Philippe Le Sourd)
9. Get Out (Toby Oliver)
10. Wonder Wheel (Vittorio Storaro)
11. Logan (John Mathieson)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Here's one where I think I have a solid five. Star Wars, Apes, and Blade Runner all seem like absolute done deals to me. The Shape of Water didn't make the makeup shortlist but they'll want to honor that fantastic practical creature work on Doug Jones so they may as well do it here. Whether or not they go with Dunkirk is the only shaky thing. Oscar loves their CGI, and that film is decidedly in-camera, though it does have a lot of impressive pyrotechnics and such. Plus, it's a Nolan movie, and his films are popular in this category, even ones that aren't very CGI-heavy. That, and this shortlist is pretty lightweight and lame, so it's not a bad choice. And there's like no chance of it in my mind because it's a Netflix original but I'd love to see Okja get some love somewhere.
Predicted Five:
1. War for the Planet of the Apes
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. The Shape of Water
5. Dunkirk
Possible But Unlikely Upsets:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
7. Okja
Outside Shots:
8. Kong: Skull Island
9. Alien: Covenant
10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
As usual, there seem to be only like four to seven good, likely choices for this category, but the Academy always likes to throw in a weird one that no one likes/remembers/knows. Coco will definitely be the frontrunner, coming from a well-liked and commercially successful Pixar film with lyrics by Robert and Kristin Anderson-Lopez who won for writing "Let It Go" from Frozen (I believe at least one of them is an EGOT as well). The Greatest Showman and Beauty and the Beast were the only true blue musicals released last year, both boasting previous Oscar-winning lyricists - the former with Pasek and Paul who won last year for La La Land, and the latter with Alan Menken as co-writer, who swept this category during the Disney Renaissance. Beauty wasn't entirely adored, but it was one of the biggest box office hits of the year and the music and setpieces are definitely the things that kept people interested, so I expect it to make it here.
After the wonderful Sufjan Stevens song from Call Me by Your Name (which should win), it's guesswork for the bottom spot. I'm guessing the song from Mudbound will eke out a nod here as a consolation prize to Mary J. Blige, who I think will end up being snubbed for supporting actress but could be honored for the song here. The song from Marshall is another possible choice but I have still not met or heard of anyone who actually saw that movie somehow.
Lock:
1. "Remember Me" (Coco)
Safe Bets:
2. "This is Me" (The Greatest Showman)
3. "Evermore" (Beauty and the Beast)
4. "The Mystery of Love" (Call Me by Your Name)
Possible Fifth Spots:
5. "A Mighty River" (Mudbound)
6. "Stand Up for Something" (Marshall)
7. "Prayers For This World" (Cries from Syria)
8. "Never Forget" (Murder on the Orient Express)
Outside Shots:
9. "Visions of Gideon" (Call Me by Your Name)
10. "Tell Me How Long" (Chasing Coral)
11. "You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way" (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
12. "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" (Fifty Shades Darker)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
With the exception of Jonny Greenwood for Phantom Thread, it looks like it'll be another night of honoring previously nominated masters, as is customary really. Desplat is the frontrunner to win as far as I can see, and the Academy loves Hans Zimmer, especially when he works with Nolan. John Williams could potentially have a double nomination (it's happened before) for The Post and The Last Jedi, though I'd say the former is much more likely, but the Academy likes a good Star Wars score, and they'll nominate Williams for movies they don't even like. I'd also put Dario Marianelli, another Oscar vet, for Darkest Hour as fairly likely, considering the score is an element of that film critics have singled out for praise. The upsets are mostly lightweights and blockbusters, so this list of five looks pretty solid to me, but there are always surprises in this category. Especially with Thomas Newman, who scored Victoria and Abdul this year, who we learned last year with Passengers the Academy will nominate even for movies that aren't particularly good or have particularly memorable scores, at least not in comparison to Newman's other work.
Predicted Five:
1. The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
2. Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
3. The Post (John Williams)
4. Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
5. Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
Possible Upsets:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)
7. Victoria and Abdul (Thomas Newman)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Carter Burwell)
9. Coco (Michael Giacchino)
Outside Shots:
10. Blade Runner 2049 (Johann Johannson)
11. War for the Planet of the Apes (Michael Giacchino)
12. Wonder Woman (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me by Your Name will be nominated and will probably win, only because this category is insanely weak this year. I'm happy that this movie will get some form of recognition most likely, but I guarantee if some generic biopic released in November had been well-liked and commercially successful enough, this sensual gay romantic drama would almost certainly have been dropped. After that, the WGA Award nominees seem to be the best roadmap. They love Aaron Sorkin and Molly's Game has also had a lot of weird late-year push and found itself on some unexpected awards lists so that's in, The Disaster Artist is well-liked and grabbed a nod, and despite its Netflix-ness Mudbound seems to be getting uniform recognition on this front, so it has strong-ish chances. Logan is the least likely of the WGA nominees to get in, and they almost never go five for five with any guild awards, but it could be a welcome surprise. I'm filling the fifth slot with The Beguiled because they do like Sofia Coppola and I feel like that Cannes win should go somewhere here.
Lock:
1. Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)
Very Likely Nominees:
2. Molly's Game (Aaron Sorkin)
3. The Disaster Artist (Scott Neutstadter and Michael H. Weber)
4. Mudbound (Dee Rees and Virgil Williams)
Fighting For Bottom Spot:
5. The Beguiled (Sofia Coppola)
6. Wonder (Steven Chbosky, Steven Conrad, and Jack Thorne)
7. Logan (James Mangold, Scott Frank, and Michael Green)
8. All the Money in the World (David Scarpa)
Outside Shots:
9. Last Flag Flying (Richard Linklater)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (Hampton Fancher and Michael Green)
11. Wonder Woman (Allan Heinberg and Geoff Johns)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Outside of the requisite locks, the WGA Awards fail us here because Three Billboards was ineligible for their awards but is eligible here, and The Post was eligible but just left out. There's also the issue of The Big Sick, a highly unusual movie to be an Oscar frontrunner (and a Best Picture contender), but its nominations for best cast at the SAG Awards and for a PGA Award (a pretty good predictor of the Best Picture nominees) mean that it has some real chances, and a screenplay nod would help secure that. I still contend that the Academy will latch on to The Post at least in nominations (I'm not really anticipating it to win anything, but then again I expected the same of Bridge of Spies and turned out wrong), both because they love Spielberg/Streep/Hanks and because of the obvious T I M E L Y political angle, so I feel like it'll edge out despite the lack of a WGA nod. I believe that del Toro will get pushed out for The Shape of Water, but he'll probably get acknowledged in the directing category as a consolation prize.
Predicted Five:
1. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)
2. Get Out (Jordan Peele)
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
4. The Post (Liz Hannah and Josh Singer)
5. The Big Sick (Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon)
Could Edge Out the Bottom Spots:
6. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor)
7. I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)
8. Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Outside Shots:
9. The Florida Project (Sean Baker)
10. Darkest Hour (Anthony McCarten)
11. Downsizing (Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor)
BEST DIRECTOR
This seems like a straightforward predicted five to me, especially after the DGA nominations. Having a female (Grewig) nominee and a black (Peele) nominee in this category in one year, being honored for a 2003-set female-led coming of age film and a horror movie about racism respectively, sounds almost too cool to be possible for the Academy, but they've both received pretty uniform recognition from awards bodies for their direction (except from HFPA at the Globes, which was very uncharacteristic of them) and their films are both well-liked Best Picture threats. Nolan and del Toro seem a given, and both have a good shot at winning. McDonagh landed the fifth DGA nom for Three Billboards, but that movie's depleting popularity as it grows more controversial and its being seen as more of a writers' and actors' movie (which is dumb, but y'know), I think, will keep him from making it in exchange for a safer pick - like a Spielberg movie about a newspaper!
Predicted Five:
Predicted Five:
1. Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
2. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
3. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
4. Jordan Peele (Get Out)
5. Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Possible Upsets:
6. Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
7. Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
8. Sean Baker (The Florida Project)
Outside Shots:
9. Sofia Coppola (The Beguiled)
10. Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)
11. Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
12. Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
13. Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I think the SAG Award nominees can mostly guide us here, and the same goes for the rest of the acting categories. In fact, for each of the four acting categories it looks to me that there is a fairly straightforward group of four or sothat are pretty definite, but at least one last one that is a little too shaky (it's also, as I've repeated, not statistically a good idea to go 5 for 5 with nominees from the guild awards; different strokes for different folks and so on). I think Armie Hammer will manage to get in despite no SAG nod, just because I doubt Carell will be honored for such a little-seen role, and Harrelson doesn't seem all that likely to me, only because double acting nominations for films are very rare nowadays at the Oscars, and I don't know if Three Billboards has kept up the momentum it garnered in November and managed to keep until Globes night. The most likely replacement is Christopher Plummer, a beloved actor who will make a notable addition being the stand-in for Kevin Spacey after those high-profile sexual misconduct stories, on top of apparently being legitimately good in the movie.
Safe Bets:
1. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
2. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
3. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
4. Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name)
Fighting For Bottom Spots:
5. Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
6. Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)
Outside Shots:
8. Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
9. Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
10. Patrick Stewart (Logan)
11. Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
12. Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Once again, going four for five on this category. Alexander Payne is too well-liked with the Academy for them to pass up on an opportunity to honor even his worst-reviewed, least characteristic film to date, and Hong Chau has shown up in too many award things for me to think she isn't getting in. Also, as always, we need to consider that the Academy's unique hatred of Netflix may or may not still be in full force to give us a repeat of Idris Elba missing out for Beasts of No Nation despite a win at SAG, much less a nomination like Blige would get for Mudbound, and they love Octavia, so I'm going with her. And there are plenty of alternatives that are worthy, just not particularly Oscar-friendly.
Locks:
1. Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
2. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Safe Bets:
3. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
4. Hong Chau (Downsizing)
5. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
Very Possible Upsets:
6. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
7. Kirsten Dunst (The Beguiled)
8. Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Outside Shots:
9. Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)
10. Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
11. Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
12. Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)
BEST ACTOR
The SAG nominees brought us a fairly solid predicted five here, though I'd switch out Denzel's nomination for Daniel Day-Lewis. Phantom Thread came out a tad too late to make a splash with SAG voters in time, but it's been expanding for the last couple weeks and has been getting high praise from those who see it, especially for DDL's supposed last performance before retiring, and Roman J. Israel was a lukewarm effort that critics and audiences were both a little soft on. After that it's fairly smooth sailing, with Oldman as the most obvious lock and probable winner at this juncture. The only person in the remaining four that I'd say is vulnerable is James Franco, given the recent resurfacing of his various sexual misconduct allegations. That said, those accusations have not been quite as explosive as other high-profile cases from the past few months, and his performance as Tommy Wiseau is well-liked and garnering awards and nods consistently. There are a few relatively lightweight ones that could take his place though. Maybe they'll finally nominate Hanks for the first time in 18 years and I can pretend it's for Captain Phillips.
Predicted Five:
1. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
2. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
3. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
4. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
5. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Possible Upsets:
6. Tom Hanks (The Post)
7. Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
Outside Shots:
9. Robert Pattinson (Good Time)
10. Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman or Logan)
11. Andrew Garfield (Breathe)
BEST ACTRESS
Another category where I feel quite solid in my predicted five. Once again, the SAG awards mostly played to expectations except for the weird inclusion of Judi Dench for Victoria and Abdul. Oscar does like Stephen Frears, uncompromising dramas about royalty, and the Dame herself, but in this particular climate, I'd think Streep's portrayal of a principled but scared Washington Post reporter will resonate more, and will give Meryl her... twentieth nomination, I think? Jesus. Anyway, come Oscar night, I expect the main competition to be between Frances McDormand's rough-around-the-edges no-nonsense Midwestern bereaved mommy and my homegirl Saoirse Ronan's pitch-perfect angsty Sacramento teen. I also can't imagine a scenario where Robbie and Hawkins miss out, so for probably the first time in history Meryl is the only one who isn't completely safe here. (PS - wouldn't you love to trade Oscar nominations for some actors? Like give Meryl this one in exchange for rescinding her nomination for something stupid, like... Into the Woods or something)
Predicted Five:
Predicted Five:
1. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
2. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
3. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
4. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
5. Meryl Streep (The Post)
Possible (But Kinda Unlikely, IMO) Upsets:
6. Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
7. Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game)
8. Nicole Kidman (The Beguiled)
Outside Shots:
9. Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
10. Jennifer Lawrence (mother!)
11. Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)
12. Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)
13. Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman)
BEST PICTURE
Here we are, folx, the main event. This year's best picture race is nowhere near as all over the place as it's been in the previous few years, in that there are, to me, a good seven movies that are almost definitely going to get nominated. Academy rules with Best Picture are finicky, so this could end up having anywhere between eight and ten nominees, though it pretty much never reaches ten. The ones at the bottom of my list - The Big Sick, Mudbound, and I, Tonya - all have at least a PGA nod and/or a SAG casting nod to bolster their chances of getting in, which doesn't mean some of the more periphery films in the "possible upsets" section are necessarily definitely not getting in, but just that there's more precedent with the others. I've seen Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, and The Florida Project mentioned on a lot of people's guess lists, but I feel like those three were too lukewarmly received, released too late, and not pushed hard enough outside of Dafoe, respectively, to end up making it here. But I have been surprised before.
Locks:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Lady Bird
3. Dunkirk
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Post
6. Get Out
7. Call Me by Your Name
Probable Nominees:
8. The Big Sick
9. I, Tonya
10. Mudbound
Possible Upsets:
11. Darkest Hour
12. Phantom Thread
13. The Florida Project
Outside Shots:
14. All the Money in the World
15. The Beguiled
16. Blade Runner 2049
17. Wonder Woman
18. Logan
Well, there you go, my full predictions for the Oscar nominees in more detail than possibly needed. Check back on this post on Tuesday, January 23rd to calculate how poorly I did, and keep your eyes peeled for my predictions for the winners next month before the ceremony on March 4th.
I love you.
I love you.
