2016 Oscars Winner Predictions: One Month Out

It's just about exactly a month until the 88th Academy Awards. By the end of the night of February 28th, one of the weirdest awards seasons in recent memory will be complete, and then we can all start wondering what will be nominated at the next Oscars. For the potential interest of posterity as to how accurate my guesses are one month before the ceremony, and because I'm currently trying to put off writing a review of the most recent movie I saw, I'm going to post my current predicted winners, which are, as always, subject to change as the conversation inevitably changes over the course of the next month, especially as guild award winners are announced, etc. If any of you are itching to know my take on the scintillating race debate plaguing -- I mean, permeating this Oscars season, I'll be devoting a post or video to that subject after the ceremony once the dust has cleared (read: once everyone on social media has stopped pretending to care). Snark aside, let's get into ALL of the categories (minus short documentary and live action short because I have nothing to say about them and they're impossible to predict), with brief explanations where needed...


Best Foreign Language Film
NOMINEES:
- Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
- Mustang (France)
- Son of Saul (Hungary)
- Theeb (Jordan)
- A War (Denmark)

Predicted Winner: Son of Saul
Potential Spoiler: Mustang


Best Animated Short Film
NOMINEES:
- Bear Story
- Prologue
- Sanjay's Super Team
- We Can't Live Without Cosmos
- World of Tomorrow

Predicted Winner: Sanjay's Super Team
Potential Spoiler: World of Tomorrow


Best Documentary Feature
NOMINEES:
- Amy
- Cartel Land
- The Look of Silence
- What Happened Miss Simone
- Winter on Fire

Predicted Winner: Amy
Potential Spoiler: The Look of Silence


Best Animated Feature Film
NOMINEES:
- Anomalisa
- Boy and the World
- Inside Out
- Shaun the Sheep Movie
- When Marnie Was There

Predicted Winner: Inside Out
Potential Spoiler: Anomalisa


Best Sound Mixing
NOMINEES:
- Bridge of Spies
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

And so begins the confusion as to just how much the Academy loves The Revenant. Only two categories - best actor and best cinematography - are true locks, but it's a really strong second place for a ton of other categories. Don't take its impressive nomination count as synonymous with huge wins, either. American Hustle and True Grit within the last six years both received ten nominations with zero wins. I'm giving Mad Max the edge here because of the longevity of its place in the convo but this could all change.

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Potential Spoiler: The Revenant 


Best Sound Editing
NOMINEES:
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Sicario
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Potential Spoiler: Star Wars: The Force Awakens


Best Visual Effects
NOMINEES:
- Ex Machina
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Giving Star Wars the edge here because it probably won't make it any other category and with how well liked it is, I figure they'll want to honor it somewhere, and this seems to be the most likely. Also, weirdly, the Academy is old-fashioned in every way except that they actually prefer CG effects, of which Star Wars has more than Mad Max. The Revenant could make a surprise showing for the one (really good) scene that got it here.

Predicted Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Potential Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road 


Best Makeup and Hairstyling
NOMINEES:
- The Hundred Year Old Man Who Was in a Movie With a Title That is Way Too Fucking Long Fuck This Movie
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Potential Spoiler: The Revenant


Best Costume Design
NOMINEES:
- Carol
- Cinderella
- The Danish Girl
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant

What a boring fucking category. The Academy has the chance to be cool here almost every year and every year four-fifths of the nominees are garish dress orgies. I also sincerely don't understand The Revenant's showing up here. Anyway, Mad Max is strangely the frontrunner here, and I'm giving it the edge over Carol or Cinderella because Sandy Powell's double nom has them splitting votes on her. And I'm ignoring The Danish Girl because it's boring.

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Potential Spoiler: Carol or Cinderella


Best Production Design
NOMINEES:
- Bridge of Spies
- The Danish Girl
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant

I swear to God I don't just love Mad Max (although I do). It's just really likely to win in a lot of categories.

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Potential Spoiler: The Revenant I guess? I dunno what "sets" there were other than the camp


Best Film Editing
NOMINEES:
- The Big Short
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
- Spotlight
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Big Short
Potential Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road


Best Cinematography
NOMINEES:
- Carol
- The Hateful Eight
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
- Sicario

Predicted Winner: The Revenant
If Hell Freezes Over: Mad Max or Sicario


Best Original Song
NOMINEES:
- Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey)
- Manta Ray (Chasing Extinction)
- Simple Song #3 (Youth)
- Til It Happens to You (The Hunting Ground)
- Writing's on the Wall (Spectre)

Predicted Winner: Til It Happens to You
Potential Spoiler: Writing's on the Wall


Best Original Score
NOMINEES:
- Bridge of Spies
- Carol
- The Hateful Eight
- Sicario
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Hateful Eight
Potential Spoiler: Star Wars: The Force Awakens


Best Adapted Screenplay
NOMINEES:
- The Big Short
- Brooklyn
- Carol
- The Martian
- Room

Predicted Winner: The Big Short
Potential Spoiler: Room


Best Original Screenplay
NOMINEES:
- Bridge of Spies
- Ex Machina
- Inside Out
- Spotlight
- Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Winner: Spotlight
Potential Spoiler: Inside Out


Best Supporting Actress
NOMINEES:
- Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
- Rooney Mara (Carol)
- Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
- Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
- Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Predicted Winner: Rooney Mara (Carol)
Potential Spoiler: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)


Best Supporting Actor
NOMINEES:
- Christian Bale (The Big Short)
- Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
- Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
- Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
- Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

What a crowded category. I was not surprised when Idris Elba tragically wasn't nominated here, given how much strong competition and Oscar favorites were in the conversation here this year. This category is by far the most open.

Predicted Winner: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Potential Spoiler: basically any of them, seriously


Best Actress
NOMINEES:
- Cate Blanchett (Carol)
- Brie Larson (Room)
- Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
- Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
- Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

Predicted Winner: Brie Larson (Room)
Potential Spoiler: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)


Best Actor
NOMINEES:
- Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
- Matt Damon (The Martian)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
- Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
- Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

This is an honestly pretty weak best actor race. Leo will probably get his first win, even if this is maybe the third best of his nominated performances honestly. I'm cool with him winning for it, though, mostly because the other performances here were similarly lightweight for the most part, and also I want the meme about him never winning to fucking die already. On a sidenote, did people really expect Will Smith to be nominated for Concussion? You know, the movie that got shit reviews and nobody saw? I guess the same is true with Joy, but J-Law's gotten more Oscar noms in the last five years than Will has gotten ever. But I digress.

Predicted Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Potential Meme Rejuvenator: Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)


Best Director
NOMINEES:
- Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
- Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant)
- Thomas McCarthy (Spotlight)
- Adam McKay (The Big Short)
- George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Looks like the director of Babe: Pig in the City and Happy Feet will be winning a best director Oscar. Weirder things have happened. Peter Jackson won and he directed Bad Taste. Anyway, this would be a very deserved win, as would supposed spoiler Inarritu (which I think is unlikely only because he won three awards last year), and McCarthy and McKay have decent outside shots given their films being best picture frontrunners.

Predicted Winner: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Potential Spoiler: Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant)


Best Picture
NOMINEES:
- The Big Short
- Bridge of Spies
- Brooklyn
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Room
- Spotlight

So, The Big Short might win best picture. Not sure how I feel about that, and it wouldn't help the #OscarsSoWhite controversy at all, but then again neither would any of these winning. Maybe every member of the Academy will write in Straight Outta Compton as the winner. Anyway, Spotlight and The Big Short have equal chances in my view at winning, and either way they'd be best picture winners with very few wins. Weird how the Academy will award technical powerhouses for being the best in every aspect of filmmaking and then not give it the award for best movie overall. OH WELL.

Predicted Winner: The Big Short or Spotlight
Potential Spoiler #1: The Revenant
Potential Spoiler #2: Mad Max: Fury Road (god that'd be great)


All right, kids, that's all for now. Stay tuned in the coming weeks for my reviews of the first films of 2016, and remember to come back on February 27th for my final winner predictions, with in-depth discussion of every category for MAXIMUM TEXTUAL FUN. I'll be giving my thoughts on the results on Leap Day and all that good stuff. Peace.

"The Revenant" Review

If you're wondering where my reactions to the Oscar nominations are, I don't know if I'll be making that post. I don't have much worthwhile commentary on the nominees (especially because discussion of winners hasn't truly begun), and don't have many good thoughts to offer on the snubs and surprises that haven't been said much better by other people - particularly considering this semi-toxic race debate, which this article dissects as perfectly as I could ever hope to do. I'll be predicting the winners and commenting on the talk surrounding the race in the days leading up to Oscar night, though. Anyway, on to the review...

The Revenant is a revenge western film directed by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, director of my favorite film of last year (Birdman), and starring Leonardo DiCaprio as real-life frontiersman Hugh Glass who, in the 1820s, was mauled by a bear (Jonah Hill) and left for dead by his own hunting team, led by John Fitzgerald (Tom Hardy), causing him to subsequently seek out Fitzgerald to exact revenge for making him eat bison liver and sleep naked in a horse carcass and a whole bunch of other gross shit. The result is what I hope will end the "Leo has never won an Oscar" meme for eternity.

Now, this movie was absolutely showered with Oscar nominations, picking up 12 for the night (luckily, I think this will be the last movie for another year that I even bring up awards shows in my review, but c'mon, it's relevant). Are they all deserved? Eh, I wouldn't say so. Is this a very well-crafted movie? Oh-ho, yes. While the author of that brilliant article linked above seems to pretty openly think this movie is hypermasculine bullshit, I think this is an incredibly decent, beautifully shot, masterfully directed, superbly acted, and psuedo-spiritual(?) revenge film.

All right, let's get the obvious out of the way. Leo is a powerhouse in this movie, as is Hardy; in fact, dare I say it, I think Hardy does about as much with his (considerably shorter) screen time as Leo does when given the spotlight for about 90% of the film. That said, Leo's acting is almost entirely physical, with much of his dialogue actually being in a Native American language, but other than that, he may be the only actor so far to one-up Hardy in a movie on the grunt factor. Hardy's villain is believable and not completely one-dimensional, and Leo's Glass is sympathetic, and we understand his plight. It's all pretty simple, but it's simple done really, really well. And Leo is a captivating watch.

Speaking of simple, one thing that is definitely not that is the direction and overall production of this movie. If you haven't heard the horror stories of this film's production, then I encourage you to look them up, as they're Jaws-level terrible. Inarritu insists, though, that if the film's very raw, hands-on approach to production was replaced with simple keying in of computer generated imagery or shooting on a set to keep within budget and shooting schedules, "everyone would've been happy but the film would've probably been a piece of shit" (paraphrasing). And as the viewer, I'm glad Inarritu had this mindset, because it definitely worked out to the film's betterment, and a piece of shit is not.

The opening battle scene is essentially the Normandy Beach scene in Saving Private Ryan with arrows and muskets. The violence in this movie (and there is a lot of it) is visceral, brutal, unflinching, and in your face, and the film is pretty consistently tense. There were numerous audible moans and shouts of shock at some of the images in this movie, which is something I don't see happen often. We've had movies where people's heads are blown to smithereens, but flesh wounds and smacks to the face with the butt of a gun are a hundred times more disturbing in this movie than in those cases - case in point that it's not so much what you're showing, but how you present it. And that can be applied to much of The Revenant. There's not a whole lot here from the standpoint of story, themes, or characters that's really new or fleshed out in any sort of compelling way, but its story is constructed in such an engrossing way that we forgive it (or at least I did).

This seems to be Inarritu's philosophy on filmmaking, judging by these last two projects and some interviews I've listened to. He seems to be very interested in modern filmmaking technology and finding new ways to engross the audience in a story, and to truly make the theater experience relevant again. This is admirable, and a much more welcome approach to storytelling than whatever he was trying to do with his very melodramatic, mostly self-indulgent earlier films. This is where The Revenant suffers - there are several images in this film that I know Inarritu wants to mean much more, but oftentimes they go very unexplained. I'm cool with vagueness as long as we have enough to guide us through those vague images to eventually arrive at the point. Perhaps I'm missing something obvious, but I didn't get what larger message the movie was trying to convey to me, and the ones I've heard suggested by those who did "get" it doesn't seem all that important or groundbreaking to me. I really don't know what greater spiritual message this movie was going for. "Revenge is God's action"? Okay. Cool. But nobody killed my son, so where do I fit into this message? Help me out, Alex.

Ultimately, I don't know whether I'd like a really well-made movie with not much substance or a really well-made movie with an awkward attempt at substance, but The Revenant gives us the latter, and it's honestly an engrossing and crazily well-shot and well-acted piece of work, especially the bear scene. I don't mean to make this seem tangential because it's easily the best part of the movie, but the bear attack scene is an amazing feat of filmmaking, both in terms of cinematography, directing, and action. Maybe one day I'll make a whole article talking about just why that scene is so good. Anyway, it'd be cool if The Revenant was as tightly scripted as Birdman, but if the worst sin this movie commits is being a very good simple movie, I'm cool with that. I give credit where it's due, and with The Revenant, it's in most places. I'll probably check it out again sometime.

Grade: A-

FULL FINAL PREDICTIONS - 88th Academy Awards

Nominations for the 2016 Oscars will be announced in a short 10 hours, and so as an official entry for posterity, here are my full predictions for every category (sans the shorts). Come back tomorrow morning to see how many I got wrong (probably a lot).

Best Picture

• The Big Short
• Bridge of Spies
• Carol
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Room
• Spotlight
• Straight Outta Compton
• there are literally like eight movies that could fill a possible 10th spot

Best Directing

• Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant)
• Thomas McCarthy (Spotlight)
• Adam McKay (The Big Short)
• George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
• Ridley Scott (The Martian)

Best Actor

• Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
• Matt Damon (The Martian)
• Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
• Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
• Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett (Carol)
• Brie Larson (Room)
• Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
• Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
• Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

Best Supporting Actor

• Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
• Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
• Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
• Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
• Jacob Tremblay (Room)

Best Supporting Actress

• Rooney Mara (Carol)
• Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
• Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
• Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
• Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Best Original Screenplay

• Bridge of Spies (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Matt Charman)
• Ex Machina (Alex Garland)
• Inside Out (Pete Docter, Ronnie del Carmen, Josh Cooley, Meg LeFauve)
• Spotlight (Thomas McCarthy, Josh Singer)
• Straight Outta Compton (Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Anomalisa (Charlie Kaufman)
• The Big Short (Adam McKay, Charles Randolph)
• The Martian (Drew Goddard)
• Room (Emma Donoghue)
• Steve Jobs (Aaron Sorkin)

Best Visual Effects

• Jurassic World
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Cinematography

• Bridge of Spies (Janusz Kaminski)
• Carol (Edward Lachmann)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (John Seale)
• The Revenant (Emmanuel Lubezki)
• Sicario (Roger Deakins)

Best Film Editing

• The Big Short (Hank Corvin)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (Jason Ballantine and Margaret Sixel)
• The Martian (Pietro Scalia)
• The Revenant (Stephen Mirrione)
• Spotlight (Tom McArdle)

Best Original Score

• Bridge of Spies (Thomas Newman)
• Carol (Carter Burwell)
• The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)
• Inside Out (Michael Giacchino)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (John Williams)

Best Original Song

• “So Long” (Concussion)
• “Earned It” (Fifty Shades of Grey)
• “See You Again” (Furious 7)
• “Until It Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground)
• “Simple Song #3” (Youth)

Best Sound Mixing

• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens
• Straight Outta Compton

Best Sound Editing

• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Sicario
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Black Mass
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant

Best Production Design

• Bridge of Spies (Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Heinrich)
• The Danish Girl (Eve Stewart, Michael Standish)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (Colin Gibson, Katie Sharrock, Lisa Thompson)
• The Martian (Arthur Max, Celia Bobak, Zoltan Horvath)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Rick Carter, Darren Gilford, Lee Sandales)

Best Costume Design

• Brooklyn (Odile Dicks-Mireaux)
• Carol (Sandy Powell)
• Cinderella (Sandy Powell)
• The Danish Girl (Paco Delgado)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (Jenny Beavan)

Best Animated Feature Film

• Anomalisa
• The Good Dinosaur
• Inside Out
• The Peanuts Movie
• Shaun the Sheep Movie

Best Documentary Feature

• Amy
• Cartel Land
• Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
• Listen to Me Marlon
• The Look of Silence

Best Foreign Language Film

• The Brand New Testament (Belgium)
• Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
• Mustang (France)
• Son of Saul (Hungary)
• A War (Denmark)