2016 Oscars Winner Predictions: One Month Out

It's just about exactly a month until the 88th Academy Awards. By the end of the night of February 28th, one of the weirdest awards seasons in recent memory will be complete, and then we can all start wondering what will be nominated at the next Oscars. For the potential interest of posterity as to how accurate my guesses are one month before the ceremony, and because I'm currently trying to put off writing a review of the most recent movie I saw, I'm going to post my current predicted winners, which are, as always, subject to change as the conversation inevitably changes over the course of the next month, especially as guild award winners are announced, etc. If any of you are itching to know my take on the scintillating race debate plaguing -- I mean, permeating this Oscars season, I'll be devoting a post or video to that subject after the ceremony once the dust has cleared (read: once everyone on social media has stopped pretending to care). Snark aside, let's get into ALL of the categories (minus short documentary and live action short because I have nothing to say about them and they're impossible to predict), with brief explanations where needed...


Best Foreign Language Film
NOMINEES:
- Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
- Mustang (France)
- Son of Saul (Hungary)
- Theeb (Jordan)
- A War (Denmark)

Predicted Winner: Son of Saul
Potential Spoiler: Mustang


Best Animated Short Film
NOMINEES:
- Bear Story
- Prologue
- Sanjay's Super Team
- We Can't Live Without Cosmos
- World of Tomorrow

Predicted Winner: Sanjay's Super Team
Potential Spoiler: World of Tomorrow


Best Documentary Feature
NOMINEES:
- Amy
- Cartel Land
- The Look of Silence
- What Happened Miss Simone
- Winter on Fire

Predicted Winner: Amy
Potential Spoiler: The Look of Silence


Best Animated Feature Film
NOMINEES:
- Anomalisa
- Boy and the World
- Inside Out
- Shaun the Sheep Movie
- When Marnie Was There

Predicted Winner: Inside Out
Potential Spoiler: Anomalisa


Best Sound Mixing
NOMINEES:
- Bridge of Spies
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

And so begins the confusion as to just how much the Academy loves The Revenant. Only two categories - best actor and best cinematography - are true locks, but it's a really strong second place for a ton of other categories. Don't take its impressive nomination count as synonymous with huge wins, either. American Hustle and True Grit within the last six years both received ten nominations with zero wins. I'm giving Mad Max the edge here because of the longevity of its place in the convo but this could all change.

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Potential Spoiler: The Revenant 


Best Sound Editing
NOMINEES:
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Sicario
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Potential Spoiler: Star Wars: The Force Awakens


Best Visual Effects
NOMINEES:
- Ex Machina
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Giving Star Wars the edge here because it probably won't make it any other category and with how well liked it is, I figure they'll want to honor it somewhere, and this seems to be the most likely. Also, weirdly, the Academy is old-fashioned in every way except that they actually prefer CG effects, of which Star Wars has more than Mad Max. The Revenant could make a surprise showing for the one (really good) scene that got it here.

Predicted Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Potential Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road 


Best Makeup and Hairstyling
NOMINEES:
- The Hundred Year Old Man Who Was in a Movie With a Title That is Way Too Fucking Long Fuck This Movie
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Potential Spoiler: The Revenant


Best Costume Design
NOMINEES:
- Carol
- Cinderella
- The Danish Girl
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant

What a boring fucking category. The Academy has the chance to be cool here almost every year and every year four-fifths of the nominees are garish dress orgies. I also sincerely don't understand The Revenant's showing up here. Anyway, Mad Max is strangely the frontrunner here, and I'm giving it the edge over Carol or Cinderella because Sandy Powell's double nom has them splitting votes on her. And I'm ignoring The Danish Girl because it's boring.

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Potential Spoiler: Carol or Cinderella


Best Production Design
NOMINEES:
- Bridge of Spies
- The Danish Girl
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant

I swear to God I don't just love Mad Max (although I do). It's just really likely to win in a lot of categories.

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Potential Spoiler: The Revenant I guess? I dunno what "sets" there were other than the camp


Best Film Editing
NOMINEES:
- The Big Short
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
- Spotlight
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Big Short
Potential Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road


Best Cinematography
NOMINEES:
- Carol
- The Hateful Eight
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
- Sicario

Predicted Winner: The Revenant
If Hell Freezes Over: Mad Max or Sicario


Best Original Song
NOMINEES:
- Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey)
- Manta Ray (Chasing Extinction)
- Simple Song #3 (Youth)
- Til It Happens to You (The Hunting Ground)
- Writing's on the Wall (Spectre)

Predicted Winner: Til It Happens to You
Potential Spoiler: Writing's on the Wall


Best Original Score
NOMINEES:
- Bridge of Spies
- Carol
- The Hateful Eight
- Sicario
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Hateful Eight
Potential Spoiler: Star Wars: The Force Awakens


Best Adapted Screenplay
NOMINEES:
- The Big Short
- Brooklyn
- Carol
- The Martian
- Room

Predicted Winner: The Big Short
Potential Spoiler: Room


Best Original Screenplay
NOMINEES:
- Bridge of Spies
- Ex Machina
- Inside Out
- Spotlight
- Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Winner: Spotlight
Potential Spoiler: Inside Out


Best Supporting Actress
NOMINEES:
- Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
- Rooney Mara (Carol)
- Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
- Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
- Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Predicted Winner: Rooney Mara (Carol)
Potential Spoiler: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)


Best Supporting Actor
NOMINEES:
- Christian Bale (The Big Short)
- Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
- Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
- Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
- Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

What a crowded category. I was not surprised when Idris Elba tragically wasn't nominated here, given how much strong competition and Oscar favorites were in the conversation here this year. This category is by far the most open.

Predicted Winner: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Potential Spoiler: basically any of them, seriously


Best Actress
NOMINEES:
- Cate Blanchett (Carol)
- Brie Larson (Room)
- Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
- Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
- Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

Predicted Winner: Brie Larson (Room)
Potential Spoiler: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)


Best Actor
NOMINEES:
- Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
- Matt Damon (The Martian)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
- Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
- Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

This is an honestly pretty weak best actor race. Leo will probably get his first win, even if this is maybe the third best of his nominated performances honestly. I'm cool with him winning for it, though, mostly because the other performances here were similarly lightweight for the most part, and also I want the meme about him never winning to fucking die already. On a sidenote, did people really expect Will Smith to be nominated for Concussion? You know, the movie that got shit reviews and nobody saw? I guess the same is true with Joy, but J-Law's gotten more Oscar noms in the last five years than Will has gotten ever. But I digress.

Predicted Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Potential Meme Rejuvenator: Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)


Best Director
NOMINEES:
- Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
- Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant)
- Thomas McCarthy (Spotlight)
- Adam McKay (The Big Short)
- George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Looks like the director of Babe: Pig in the City and Happy Feet will be winning a best director Oscar. Weirder things have happened. Peter Jackson won and he directed Bad Taste. Anyway, this would be a very deserved win, as would supposed spoiler Inarritu (which I think is unlikely only because he won three awards last year), and McCarthy and McKay have decent outside shots given their films being best picture frontrunners.

Predicted Winner: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Potential Spoiler: Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant)


Best Picture
NOMINEES:
- The Big Short
- Bridge of Spies
- Brooklyn
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Room
- Spotlight

So, The Big Short might win best picture. Not sure how I feel about that, and it wouldn't help the #OscarsSoWhite controversy at all, but then again neither would any of these winning. Maybe every member of the Academy will write in Straight Outta Compton as the winner. Anyway, Spotlight and The Big Short have equal chances in my view at winning, and either way they'd be best picture winners with very few wins. Weird how the Academy will award technical powerhouses for being the best in every aspect of filmmaking and then not give it the award for best movie overall. OH WELL.

Predicted Winner: The Big Short or Spotlight
Potential Spoiler #1: The Revenant
Potential Spoiler #2: Mad Max: Fury Road (god that'd be great)


All right, kids, that's all for now. Stay tuned in the coming weeks for my reviews of the first films of 2016, and remember to come back on February 27th for my final winner predictions, with in-depth discussion of every category for MAXIMUM TEXTUAL FUN. I'll be giving my thoughts on the results on Leap Day and all that good stuff. Peace.