The outcome of the film portion of the Globes last night solidified that, with The Revenant (which I still haven't seen) scoring big and the hilarious comedy The Martian taking home two big prizes (as well as a surprising standing O for director Ridley Scott), with Spotlight and The Big Short, at first thought to be absolute frontrunners, going home bizarrely empty-handed. Also notably Globe-less were Mad Max: Fury Road, which surprised in two categories including the for some reason more prestigious best drama category, and Carol, which managed to have the most nominations of the night with five. Not ignored, though, were The Hateful Eight which nabbed Ennio Morricone a win for best original score (his absence tricking the audience into another charming, albeit self-aggrandizing, Quentin Tarantino speech), well on his way to a much deserved first Oscar win at the age of 87, and Steve Jobs, which surprised audiences with Kate Winslet's win for best supporting actress (even she was surprised!) and sort-of-surprised with a screenplay win for Aaron Sorkin, which in hindsight should've been obvious, but Spotlight and The Big Short were seen as big threats (and Room, to a lesser extent). In less interesting news, Jennifer Lawrence won her third Golden Globe in just four years for her performance in the "critically acclaimed" David O. Russell film Joy. And then dissed a reporter for looking at his phone, I think? I don't know, I don't give a shit. Brie Larson is my quirky celebrity crush (and she won last night too! Yay!).
Now, to be fair, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association's picks are not necessarily the biggest indicator for success on the Oscar front, though lots of movies overlap historically. But remember that the HFPA is a group of foreign journalists who are inducted into the group by paying an entrance fee and writing a required two articles per year, while the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is an exclusive, invitation-only congregation of the most talented elderly white men in cinema. Honestly, the Golden Globes are an even more corrupt and pointless joke than the Oscars could ever be, which is why I love their messy, drunken shows every year. It's also why I found Ricky Gervais's cynical "who fucking cares" demeanor to be mostly appropo, even though I know some people vehemently disliked him. Every host of every award show gets shit reviews no matter what, and most of the time I find no fault with them. Is there something that hosts should do that no host in recent history has been doing? Should we do away with the concept of hosts altogether?
BUT I DIGRESS. Regardless, the Golden Globes are another little self-congratulatory brick in the grand mosaic of trying to predict the Oscars, to be taken into account alongside critical response, support among guilds, and campaign success with the Academy itself, in order of importance. So, with this new crop of winners and losers in Hollywood, and with less than three days before the beginning of the end, I'm going to talk about the big ones that I think will make a showing. Instead of simply listing each category and defending each of my five picks one by one, I'll focus on best picture in detail, then blast through the other seven major categories in a brisk and timely fashion. With that format, hopefully this post will end up only being egregiously long instead of sinfully so. Anyway, without further ado...
BEST PICTURE
The Ten Frontrunners
This year is especially up in the air, so it feels wrong to even call any of these a frontrunner, but there are some genuine locks in place as well as some fairly likely ones that could very well switch out with other very likely ones. I honestly don't know why I do this to myself. In order of likelihood...
Spotlight
It was surprisingly shut out at the Globes, an especially unforeseen turn of events given the whole journalists thing, but I still consider this to be probably the strongest bet for at least a nomination. The cast is beloved, it has many fans, and it's held up its place among pundits and predictors. Its win is no longer a lock, especially with the lack of an Eddie nomination (if it did win, it'd be the first without an Eddie nom since 1989), but a nomination seems certain.
The Revenant
Picture, director, and actor nods at the Globes, unanimous acclaim for DiCaprio's performance and Lubezki's cinematography, and quite a bit of precursor guild attention. This one has moved up from "definitely a nomination, but probably not a win" to "definitely a nomination, and might surprise us".
Mad Max: Fury Road
It warms the cockles of my heart to have this movie this high up on the best picture list. At first assumed to be an outside shot, I still consider this a top-five frontrunner for a best picture nomination, and a director nod for George Miller seems likely. It's an auteur blockbuster in the best sense, and will most likely go away with the most trophies of the night if precursors are any indication, albeit mostly technicals, but that's nothing to sniff at.
The Big Short
Fun fact: when she saw the TV spot for this movie, my mom thought it was called The Big Shot. Anyway, once again, its surprising lack of Globe wins has sort of dethroned it as a lock for a win, but this is still a pretty safe bet for a nomination at this point. Expect a screenplay nod and perhaps some sneak-ins in the acting categories as well.
The Martian
So many pleasant surprises in the conversation this year; I would not have pinned this as a best picture frontrunner last spring. This is anything but surefire, especially since I can't really see it actually winning any of the numerous categories it'll most likely nab a nod in, but the enthusiastic response to Scott and Damon at the Globes, while not a straight shot, is indicative that there is excitement for it in Hollywood.
Carol
I consider The Martian, The Big Short, and this to be on about equal playing fields in terms of likelihood of a best pic nomination. This is surely an Oscar darling in concept and execution - period drama, beloved actresses, under-recognized director. Again, actually winning anything might be an uphill battle given the competition, but guild support and general Hollywood appreciation for the flick have sent consistently good signs of numerous mentions.
Room
The bummer about indie movies is they rarely have good horizontal posters. This seems pretty locked in at this point, with a Brie Larson best actress win being a very real possibility (finally), and nominations for screenplay and an outside shot for best supporting actor as well. It's very well liked, has lots of precursor support, etc. Expect it here.
Bridge of Spies
It's hard to find really fervent support or enthusiasm outside of Mark Rylance (who's the only true lock for supporting actor and possible winner), but it's historically ill-advised to bet against Steven Spielberg in this category, and it's a damn good movie. Expect a smattering of technicals and screenplay alongside the inevitable Rylance nod, with a surprisingly outside shot for director for Spielberg.
Straight Outta Compton
The last two slots (which may not be filled, by the way; the Academy can have between 5 and 10 best picture nominees, but it's usually eight or nine) get into weird territory. Once you get past Room, this is where all hell breaks loose in the predicting world. I never would've thought this would be a serious best picture threat, even though I did like it (I gave it a B+ if you missed it), and yet, one Producers' Guild nomination later, here we are. It definitely fits the Oscar music biopic profile, and it's been received very well and was noticeably left out of the Globes, though it wasn't really expected there (old European journalists and country clubbers aren't big N.W.A. fans - who knew?). I'd say this is an outside yet relatively safe bet.
Ex Machina
Wow, this movie's Oscar chances came out of fucking nowhere. But I'm happy to see it, as it's probably one of my favorites of the year. The sudden but welcome recognition for Alicia Vikander in a supporting role was also met with greater advocacy for it on the technical front, and most notably a PGA nomination. Once again, an outside shot, but not an unreasonable guess. I think it could squeeze into the top ten, but I'll try not to get my hopes up. Three sci-fi best pic nominees in one year would be pretty rad though.
Other (Very Real) Possibilities
Also in order of likelihood (although I consider all of the ones below Brooklyn to be almost equal), these could definitely find their way in...
Brooklyn
Saoirse Ronan is pretty much a lock for a best actress nomination, and this is a well-liked, old-fashioned drama from a respected screenwriter that precursors have been relatively kind to. It wouldn't be a huge surprise to see it here.
Sicario
If only Emily Blunt's best actress nomination were more of a possibility. The precursor praise for this film lays mostly with Benicio del Toro and technicals, but its PGA nom makes me believe it may have a fighting chance.
Steve Jobs
Its box office performance hurt it in the conversation back in the fall, but its precursor turnout in the acting and screenplay categories are keeping it afloat. No best picture honors at any major organizations, but it could surprise.
Inside Out
It has precedent - two of the three animated best picture nominees were from Pixar, and this is a pretty glorious return to form after a lukewarm half-decade. But with its pretty much guaranteed win for best animated feature and very possible spot in other categories a la pre-Up Pixar features, and with all the competition, will the Academy feel the need to honor it here?
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
It's well-liked, Academy members are enthusiastic about it, and it will definitely fare well in numerous technical categories. Unfortunately, we have very few precursor guilds to go off of, and this is definitely an outside shot. Will they want to honor a successful revamp of a previous nominee (you can chalk this entry up to Creed, facing a pretty identical situation, as well)?
Trumbo
The most underwhelming of the possibilities, but it's been getting traction even outside of Cranston's performance (i.e. the number one reason to even see the movie). It could surprise here, but Cranston is a lock. Mirren is a possibility as well.
And now, on to the other seven "main" categories:
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
- Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant)
- Thomas McCarthy (Spotlight)
- Adam McKay (The Big Short)
- George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
- Ridley Scott (The Martian)
Next in Line
- Todd Haynes (Carol)
- F. Gary Gray (Straight Outta Compton)
- Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
- Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies)
- Danny Boyle (Steve Jobs)
Outside Shots
- Denis Villeneuve (Sicario)
- J.J. Abrams (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
- John Crowley (Brooklyn)
- Ryan Coogler (Creed)
- Tom Hooper (The Danish Girl)
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
- Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
- Matt Damon (The Martian)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
- Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
- Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Next in Line
- Johnny Depp (Black Mass)
- Will Smith (Concussion)
- Steve Carell (The Big Short)
- Ian McKellen (Mr. Holmes)
- Michael Caine (Youth)
Outside Shots
- Tom Hanks (Bridge of Spies)
- Tom Courtenay (45 Years)
- Geza Rohrig (Son of Saul)
- Michael B. Jordan (Creed)
- Samuel L. Jackson (The Hateful Eight)
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five (made more difficult because of Vikander/Mara category fraud)
- Cate Blanchett (Carol)
- Brie Larson (Room)
- Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
- Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
- Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Next in Line
- Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
- Lily Tomlin (Grandma)
- Emily Blunt (Sicario)
- Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road)
- Carey Mulligan (Suffragette)
Outside Shots
- Helen Mirren (The Woman in Gold)
- Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back)
- Blythe Danner (I'll See You in My Dreams)
- Amy Schumer (Trainwreck)
- Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van)
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five (though this entire category's a craps shoot)
- Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
- Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
- Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
- Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
- Jacob Tremblay (Room)
Next in Line
- Christian Bale (The Big Short)
- Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
- Michael Keaton (Spotlight)
- Paul Dano (Love and Mercy)
- Benicio del Toro (Sicario)
"Outside" Shots
- Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
- Jason Mitchell (Straight Outta Compton)
- Emory Cohen (Brooklyn)
- Oscar Isaac (Ex Machina)
- Walton Goggins (The Hateful Eight)
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE (feat. lead actress Rooney Mara)
The Predicted Five
- Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
- Rooney Mara (Carol)
- Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
- Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
- Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Next in Line
- Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
- Joan Allen (Room)
- Jane Fonda (Youth)
- Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)
- Elizabeth Banks (Love and Mercy)
Outside Shots
- Marion Cotillard (Macbeth)
- Mya Taylor (Tangerine)
- Julie Walters (Brooklyn)
- Sarah Paulson (Carol)
- Laura Linney (Mr. Holmes)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
- Bridge of Spies
- Ex Machina
- Inside Out
- Spotlight
- Straight Outta Compton
Next in Line
- The Hateful Eight
- Sicario
- Joy
- Love and Mercy
- Grandma
Outside Shots
- Youth
- Trainwreck
- Son of Saul
- Tangerine
- 99 Homes
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
- The Big Short
- Carol
- The Martian
- Room
- Steve Jobs
Next in Line
- Brooklyn
- Trumbo
- The Revenant
- Anomalisa
- Beasts of No Nation
Outside Shots
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Danish Girl
- The End of the Tour
- Black Mass
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
And with that, good people, those are my (more important) Oscar predictions. Tune in on Thursday to see how many I got wrong, and remember - none of this matters.
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