If you know me, you know I really enjoy the Oscars. Don't get me wrong - I'm aware that they're mostly politics and showmanship and are ultimately completely pointless, but that's what makes them fun! Following the 2016 election was interesting on a reality TV show level, and hedging bets on the decisions of politicians and the outcome was fun, but the consequences of an election are way too real. The Oscars allows me to make bets and predictions and over-analyze the film industry with absolutely nothing that matters happening as a result. That, and screw you, I think it's a fun show.
So, every year for the past four or five years now, I've closely followed the precursor award season and predicted the nominees and winners for the Academy Awards, first posting them on this blog last year. I plan to have a more complete documenting of awards season this year than last (but by no means an exhaustive one due mainly to time constraints and honestly, probably lack of audience interest), and considered posting my guesses at the beginning of November once the season was in full swing (which is actually pretty late; most Oscar pundits start their early predictions as early as July). While my picks haven't changed a whole lot since the beginning of November, since then we've had some important steps toward having an actual educated guess on this year's nominees beyond simply knowing general Academy trends. The National Board of Review and the critics circles of New York, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Washington, D.C., have all released their awards for the best films of the year this past week, and the Critics Choice Awards nominees have been announced in anticipation of the ceremony this Sunday.
What that means is now we have sufficient idea of not necessarily the exact trajectory of the Oscars, as the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and critics are different people with different but somewhat similar tastes, but an idea of the general conversation surrounding this year's films in Hollywood, the Los Angeles Film Critics Awards being the best indicator of that as of now. So, this is my first of a planned three posts enumerating my Oscar nominee predictions, the other two planned to come shortly after Christmas (all wide release US films for 2016 will have been released and reviewed, screeners will have been sent out, the Critics Choice Awards will have been held, and we'll have the nominations for the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards) and right before the nominees are announced (Golden Globes will have been held, and most guilds will have announced their nominees).
For right now, the Best Documentary Short Subject, Best Animated Short Film, and Best Live Action Short Film categories are being omitted, as it's fairly impossible to guess their trajectory at this juncture. My guesses for each category will be presented in order of likelihood to be nominated, and each category will be accompanied by a short explanation of my choices wherever necessary. I'll start from the "smaller" categories and work my way up to the big ones. All right, that's enough of an introduction, let's get into it...
Best Foreign Language Film
If you're not sure how this category works, each country chooses one film to represent them in this category, usually resulting in around 80 total submissions. It's a flawed system that ends in a lot of worthy foreign films being passed up, and, much like the Animated Feature and Documentary Feature categories, while definitely good to have, it does usually end in foreign films (or animated films, documentaries, etc.) more often than not never getting Best Picture nominations, although it's happened several times before.
This year's frontrunner seems to be Maren Ade's
Toni Erdmann from Germany, which has immense goodwill and has garnered most foreign prizes from critics circles so far. Paul Verhoeven's controversial rape revenge thriller
Elle has its star Isabelle Huppert emerging as a possible lock for a Best Actress nod, but the film itself may prove too intimidating for the Academy of mostly old white dudes (though, notably, the Academy made big leaps in diversity of age, genre, and race this past year in its membership). Chile's
Neruda gets extra points for being directed by Pablo Larrain, who also directed English-language Best Picture threat
Jackie this year, and while Iranian director Asghar Farhadi is widely considered the best of his homeland,
The Salesman has not been getting glowing responses stateside, so I feel he's a safe bet but not an absolute shoo-in.
Predicted Nominees:
1.
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
2.
Elle (France)
3.
Neruda (Chile)
4.
The Salesman (Iran)
5.
Fire at Sea (Italy)
Potential Spoilers:
6.
Julieta (Spain)
7.
Ma'Rosa (Philippines)
8.
The Age of Shadows (South Korea)
Best Documentary Feature
The Academy recently released their shortlist of finalists for this category, and they certainly have their work cut out for them in choosing just five nominees, as this year's documentary field is filled with topical, stirring, and excellently crafted documentaries that all have their share of passionate fan bases.
The frontrunner is Selma director Ava DuVernay's Netflix exclusive doc 13th about the history of racial prejudice in America specifically within the criminal justice system, with I Am Not Your Negro and the 8-hour theatrical edit of the ESPN miniseries O.J.: Made in America being close second favorites. Beyond that, it's pretty much anyone's game, though I'm giving the bump to Weiner, the amazing doc surrounding Anthony Weiner's New York City mayoral campaign amidst a sexting scandal, as it is a relatively lightweight but still thought-provoking examination of media and politics in a heated election year, as well as unfortunately remaining very timely given the recent separation of Weiner and wife Huma Abedin and the sleazy similarities to be noticed between the film's subject and our pussy-grabbing president-elect.
Outside of those choices, it could go basically anywhere. I'm giving Cameraperson the edge for the fifth spot due to its subject being a female cinematographer, which is a bit of a rarity. With that in mind, general questions about cybersecurity post-Snowden could work in the favor of Alex Gibney's Zero Days. Tower, a doc about a school shooting, focuses on a political topic important to many Academy voters, but I wouldn't exactly designate it as "timely", unless a school shooting happens between now and January, which sadly is not out of the question. I'm leaving out Fire at Sea, which is also eligible in this category, as I think it'll be nominated for foreign film due to its timeliness regarding the European migrant crisis instead of here, as the Academy generally prefers American docs.
Predicted Nominees:
1. 13th (Ava DuVernay)
2. I Am Not Your Negro (Raoul Peck)
3. O.J.: Made in America (Ezra Edelman)
4. Weiner (Josh Kreigman and Elyse Steinberg)
5. Cameraperson (Kirsten Johnson)
Potential Spoilers:
6. Zero Days (Alex Gibney)
7. Tower (Keith Maitland)
8. The Eagle Huntress (Otto Bell)
9. Into the Inferno (Werner Herzog)
Best Animated Feature Film
In my estimation, we have three frontrunners to win Best Animated Feature, all of which are pretty much guaranteed nominations, which is actually really good. Most years there's usually a clear winner, an underdog, and a foreign movie that probably should win but won't. The Red Turtle's consistently great reception throughout its many festival runs (it doesn't get a normal US release until mid-January) has earned it a seat at the cool kids' table, which really only leaves the fifth slot open. I'm going with Sing for now as it's a late release that has garnered a surprising amount of positive attention and will likely be a box office success. While a major critical and commercial success, Finding Dory has been curiously left out of the conversation as of late, with Laika's Kubo and the Two Strings actually picking up the most wins from critics circles so far.
As for most likely winner, I have Moana as the frontrunner for a couple reasons. First, the general rule of this category is that the voters generally pick whichever film they like the animation style of the most, which usually defaults to the most competently composed computer-animated film of that year (with the exception of The Lego Movie, which is still a disgrace of a snub). In this case, Moana may have the edge, although Kubo and the Two Strings's eligibility in the Best Visual Effects category could mean otherwise (more on that in a second). The other things pushing Moana to the front is its Thanksgiving release (Zootopia and Kubo were both released in months atypical of winners in this category), classical Disney style (Moana reeks of Disney Renaissance, which they love), and will most likely get nominations for its amazing music. Zootopia has a brilliant and very timely script in its favor, yes, but perhaps the Academy would find it more conducive to inclusiveness to reward a story about ancient Oceanic mythology rather than another talking animal movie. Granted, if Moana were to win it would go to its two white directors, but what can you do?
Predicted Nominees:
1. Moana
2. Zootopia
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Red Turtle
5. Sing
Potential Spoilers:
6. Finding Dory
7. Miss Hokusai
8. Your Name
9. The Secret Life of Pets
10. The Little Prince
Longer Shots:
11. Sausage Party
12. My Life as a Zucchini
13. Trolls
14. The Angry Birds Movie
15. Kung Fu Panda 3
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
This category infamously only has three nomination slots rather than five (which is particularly stupid when you consider that literally every movie has hair and makeup work), so predicting it is always tight. We don't have a shortlist yet, but the choices seem fairly simple to me. The Star Trek films have always had a decent showing in this category, only winning a handful of times but picking up a safe number of nominations. Star Trek Beyond was by no means a success or something the Academy cares about, but this category's nominations always feel like the voters go "yeah, that sounds like something that would be nominated for this", so it fits. Silence's sweaty hairy men and Jackie's note-perfect period detail of the Kennedy family should round out the nominations, with the latter being my frontrunner for the win. The other two slots, honestly, I believe are up for grabs.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jackie
2. Silence
3. Star Trek Beyond
Potential Spoilers:
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. Hacksaw Ridge
6. Suicide Squad
7. Deadpool
Best Sound Editing
This category is basically synonymous with "sound design", so the general rule has always been that the loudest film wins. War movies are perhaps over-represented here, and after the NBR sung its praises last week, it looks like Hacksaw Ridge has triggered the Gibsonaissance, so I have it as the frontrunner here. Old-fashioned workman disaster dramas Patriots Day and Sully have been mostly positively received and will likely strike a chord with the older set within the Academy who will want to honor it somewhere, Arrival's technical merits are too numerous to count, and Star Wars has been nominated in this category several times, as the New Hollywood-born franchise is one of few blockbusters the Academy takes seriously to any degree.
There are numerous potential spoilers here, as these categories really do come down to "which sci-fi or war film did they like most?", so beyond Rogue One and Hacksaw Ridge, I'd say the remaining three slots are up for grabs.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Arrival
4. Sully
5. Patriots Day
Potential Spoilers:
6. The Jungle Book
7. Deepwater Horizon
8. Live by Night
9. Passengers
10. Captain America: Civil War
11. Moana
12. La La Land
Best Sound Mixing
All conventional Oscar wisdom points to La La Land winning this category. Expectedly, musicals are quite often successful in this category due to the complications of mixing vocals with music and diegetic sound effects, and this film has gotten unanimous praise since its premiere at Venice. Rogue One is also a very safe bet here, being another category Star Wars typically shows up in, and Hacksaw Ridge's war movie edge will help it in this sound category as well as the last. I picked Sully for consistency and Silence for shits and giggles mostly, so the last two slots are a craps shoot to some extent.
Predicted Nominees:
1. La La Land
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Sully
5. Silence
Potential Spoilers
6. The Jungle Book
7. Deepwater Horizon
8. Patriots Day
9. Moana
10. Arrival
Best Visual Effects
The Jungle Book has been considered an early frontrunner to win this category since its release all the way back in April, with many critics calling it the Avatar of computer-generated animals. Comic book movies only sometimes make tracks in this category, but Doctor Strange has been particularly singled out for its Escher-style mind-bending effects work, so I'm betting it makes a showing here. Arrival will satisfy their need to reward "thinking man's sci-fi" in this category a la last year's Ex Machina, and Rogue One is basically a shoo-in to be nominated, as seven of the eight prior live-action Star Wars films have been nominated in this category.
I have Civil War in the fifth slot for lack of a better idea of where the Academy's head is at. It's fairly standard fare as far as comic book movie effects go, though it is a pseudo-Avengers-level commercial hit and ensemble action piece that may draw their attention. Fantastic Beasts has a shot, though the Harry Potter universe is more often nominated for its sets and costumes than its VFX. Other possibilities that made it onto the shortlist are Sully, whose effects are minimal and by no means state-of-the-art but wouldn't be entirely undeserved, The BFG, which suffered mixed reviews but was praised for its motion-capture tech, and Passengers, which looks relatively impressive visually but also doesn't look that good. The weirdo inclusion on the list is Kubo and the Two Strings, eligible via a loophole in the wording of the VFX category rules that allows stop-motion animation to be counted as both an animated film and a live action film in many cases. It's an outside shot, but it's not unprecedented (The Nightmare Before Christmas was nominated in this category), and Kubo has gained unanimous praise for its impressive effects animation. Stranger things have happened.
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Doctor Strange
4. Arrival
5. Captain America: Civil War
Potential Spoilers:
6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
7. Sully
8. Passengers
9. The BFG
Would Be Kinda Weird:
10. Kubo and the Two Strings
11. Deadpool
12. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
13. X-Men: Apocalypse
14. Alice Through the Looking Glass
Best Costume Design
Do you like period pieces and frilly dresses? You should start predicting the Best Costume Design Oscar, because that's pretty much all the happens here. Jenny Beavan's win for Mad Max last year was a total fluke. Of all the period pieces vying for this prize, Jackie is the one with which most Academy voters will most closely identify, mostly because I'm sure a lot of them were alive during the event it shows. And while they may not have vested interest in 17th century Jesuits or wizards, Powell and Atwood are very frequently represented in this category. La La Land's predicted technical sweep and my hunch that the Academy will have a mild hard-on for Florence Foster Jenkins (but not too much - Stephen Frears hasn't impressed them immensely in the last several years despite directing a Best Picture nominee) are what helps round out my predictions. Outside of La La Land, Jackie, and Fantastic Beasts, though, any of the top few potential spoilers are distinct possibilities, either because of the reception to the film, the subject matter being up Oscar's alley, or recognition of the name of the designer. We'll have a clearer idea in due time.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
2. La La Land (Mary Zophres)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
4. Silence (Sandy Powell)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
Potential Spoilers:
6. Allied (Joanna Johnston)
7. Live by Night (Jacqueline West)
8. Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
9. Fences (Sharen Davis)
10. Hail, Caesar! (Mary Zophres)
11. Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
Best Production Design
This category is a matter of wondering whether the Academy will prioritize work by designers and filmmakers they are familiar with and love or work by more burgeoning artists who have, despite their lack of name recognition, done excellent work with subject matter that is right up the Academy's alley. The frontrunner to me at this moment is an effective tie between La La Land and Jackie. The former benefits from being an old-school Hollywood musical with heaps of praise and endless visual style; the latter benefits from having sets and props from a time period well-known by the Academy and similarly pulled off with incredible skill.
Beyond that, it's mostly a question of just how much of a lock their typical locks are. Fantastic Beasts is a likely nominee, as production designer Stuart Craig is a longtime Oscar favorite, particularly when working with the wizard world. Silence has longtime Scorsese contributor Dante Ferretti in charge of its art direction, and they will no doubt feel pressured to reward him. The fifth slot is a bit more of a toss-up, but I'm giving the edge to Live by Night, Ben Affleck's gangster drama that was recently given a Christmas Day limited release to compete for the Oscars. It's gotten good early word, particularly for its visuals, and there is great Oscar-friendly talent assembled on both sides of the camera, but I think the studio may have jumped the gun on trying to shoehorn it into an already very crowded December release slate. They'll definitely see it, but will they remember it? I'm giving it an edge in at least one category now because it's still too early to say it'll be ignored but also too early to completely rule it out.
The Jungle Book has a decent shot, even though the bulk of its sets were created in-computer, which doesn't disqualify it, as it shouldn't. Jeanine Oppewall is an Oscar favorite doing the art direction for a Warren Beatty film (Rules Don't Apply), but reaction to the film has been incredibly lukewarm and it hasn't been the callback for the director that it was meant to be. However, sometimes that doesn't matter if Oscar likes the man enough, and Beatty is something of a legend. Beyond that are period pieces and the occasional well-crafted sci-fi flick thrown in for kicks. The final slot or two could go essentially anywhere at this point, but the first three are effective locks.
Predicted Nominees:
1. La La Land (David Wasco)
2. Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
4. Silence (Dante Ferretti)
5. Live by Night (Jess Gonchor)
Potential Spoilers:
6. Rules Don't Apply (Jeanine Oppewall)
7. Fences (David Gropman)
8. The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)
9. Allied (Gary Freeman)
10. Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
11. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang and Neil Lamont)
12. Love & Friendship (Anna Rackard)
13. Hail, Caesar! (Jess Gonchor)
Best Film Editing
The closest things to locks that I can see in this category are La La Land and Moonlight. Weirdly, this category is not often reserved for purely technical achievements as it once was (The Matrix and Terminator 2 won in this category, but films like them today probably wouldn't). Best Picture winners rarely do not have editing nominations, and these two films are two of the biggest films in that conversation. La La Land definitely has the upper hand, being a more obvious technical achievement, a musical, generally faster paced, and edited by someone who previously won working for this director, but Moonlight is melodic in its construction and its editing is damn near perfect. Any category in which Moonlight is nominated should definitely consider it as a threat to win due to the immense amount of goodwill surrounding it, but for now I'm saying the most likely nomination goes to La La Land.
Beyond that, Walker and Schoonmaker are both past Oscar nominees with known and celebrated work, so they're relatively safe bets. Right now, hype seems to be in Hacksaw Ridge's favor as the sort of middling technical achievement of the major movies in the conversation, but there are plenty of other Best Picture threats that may wow them. The nominations for the ACE Eddie Awards next month will make things clearer, but for now this is all we got.
Predicted Nominees:
1. La La Land (Tom Cross)
2. Moonlight (Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders)
3. Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
4. Arrival (Joe Walker)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
Potential Spoilers:
6. Sully (Blu Murray)
7. Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
8. Hidden Figures (Peter Teschner)
9. Jackie (Sebastian Sepulveda)
10. Fences (Hughes Winborne)
Outside Shots:
11. The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
12. Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
13. Live by Night (William Goldenberg)
14. Deepwater Horizon (Gabriel Fleming and Colby Parker, Jr.)
Best Cinematography
Very similar top five lineup as with Film Editing here. Once again, La La Land and Moonlight are the two definite locks, with Silence being just under a lock (I mean, it looks beautiful in the trailers, but will they like the movie?). Linus Sandgren is new to the game, but La La Land is stunningly shot. James Laxton is a similar nobody in regards to Oscar, but one of Moonlight's many points of unanimous praise has been its breathtakingly intimate camerawork. Rodrigo Prieto has only been nominated once for Brokeback Mountain, but he thrives in outdoor settings, which Silence will make great use of.
Outside of that, things get a little messy between exceptionally well-shot pseudo-underdog efforts and recognized names, though not quite as open a field as with editing. I'm giving the edge to Arrival and Nocturnal Animals, oddly enough both Amy Adams vehicles - the former because of DP Bradford Young's previous work on projects they liked (most notably Selma) and their love for how Denis Villeneuve shoots his movies, and the latter because they usually enjoy Seamus McGarvey's work. Plus, the previous Ford/McGarvey outing, A Single Man, didn't give McGarvey the nomination, seen by many as a snub, so they may feel the need to compensate in the form of rewarding a starkly beautiful film.
Live by Night poses a real threat to the top five; the Academy will nominate Robert Richardson-shot films even if the camerawork isn't that great and they don't even like the movie that much. A few other technical powerhouses might sneak their way in, but outside of a handful of potential upsets, this category is somewhat cut-and-dry.
Predicted Nominees:
1. La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
2. Moonlight (James Laxton)
3. Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)
4. Arrival (Bradford Young)
5. Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey)
Potential Spoilers:
6. Live by Night (Robert Richardson)
7. The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
8. Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
9. Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)
10. Lion (Greg Fraser)
Outside Shots:
11. Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)
12. The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
13. Sully (Tom Stern)
14. The Light Between Oceans (Adam Arkapaw)
15. A Monster Calls (Oscar Faura)
Best Original Song
La La Land was considered the unbeatable winner in this category until Disney's Moana was released. While I'm still confident that two songs will be nominated for La La Land (the maximum under Academy rules), there are some good songs that might pose a threat. I'm giving La La Land a slight edge to win, though a big part of me believes that Moana will emerge the victor here, as it truly is a Disney movie stuck out of time, and has its music coming from the spectacular Lin-Manuel Miranda (who would be an EGOT should he win for this film, and the second person in a row to become an EGOT by winning for writing a Disney song). Hidden Figures should prove rousing as a late entry, and this is an easy category to suddenly be included in without warning, and we have a large selection of documentaries and animated films with great songs that could get in. The Academy is infamous for almost never following conventional wisdom with this category, so expect upsets pretty much regardless of what I predict.
Predicted Nominees:
1. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" (La La Land)
2. "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
3. "City of Stars" (La La Land)
4. "I See Victory" (Hidden Figures)
5. "Can't Stop the Feeling" (Trolls)
Potential Spoilers:
6. "I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
7. "A Letter to the Free" (13th)
8. "Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
9. "We Know the Way" (Moana)
10. "The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply)
11. "Back to Life" (Queen of Katwe)
12. "Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress)
13. "Try Everything" (Zootopia)
14. "Faith" (Sing)
Outside Shots:
15. "The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)
16. "I'm So Humble" or "Equal Rights" (Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping)
17. "Moonshine" (Live by Night)
18. "The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
19. "Take Me Down" (Deepwater Horizon)
Best Original Score
For obvious reasons, La La Land is considered the frontrunner for this category, and might be the only true lock, but I'm still treading lightly with this category, because there are honestly dozens of possibilities. I've heard decent cases made for basically every film listed below sneaking a nomination in for this category. Arrival seems like a fairly safe bet to me, though, given that they really like Johann Johannson's work (he's been nominated each of the last two years) and the score for Arrival is truly phenomenal. Star Wars usually makes a good showing in this category, and Michael Giacchino is an underrated but still loved composer in Oscar's eyes (he wrote and won an Oscar for the beautiful music in Up), so Rogue One seems also fairly safe. I'm somehow alone in this, but I consider Moana a very decent shot for a nomination, but admitting the fact that I'm the odd one out thinking that, the last two slots are the most particularly unpredictable, though it's truthfully more like four.
I suspect Florence Foster Jenkins will get just barely booted out of the bigger categories by other worthy choices, but I think it could manage here, as it has a composer they like and Frears's movies typically do well here. Returning favorites John Williams and Thomas Newman, both with nominations in the double digits, unfortunately were paired this year with mediocre films that haven't sustained much traction, but their respective efforts could find a way. Moonlight, Jackie, and The Jungle Book have all been noted for their great scores, so they are possibilities as well. Like with the song category, there's not much to completely rule out at this juncture.
Predicted Nominees:
1. La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
2. Arrival (Johann Johannson)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)
4. Moana (Mark Mancina)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (Alexandre Desplat)
Possible Spoilers:
6. Jackie (Mica Levi)
7. The Jungle Book (John Debney)
8. Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
9. The BFG (John Williams)
10. Finding Dory (Thomas Newman)
11. Lion (Dustin O'Halloran and Hauschka)
12. The Light Between Oceans (Alexandre Desplat)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
Outside Shots:
14. Patriots Day (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
15. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)
16. Hail, Caesar! (Carter Burwell)
17. Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
18. Denial (Howard Shore)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival and Silence are the closest things to locks in this category in my mind. Arrival's heady themes will rest much of the attention on the script (aside from Adams's performance), and Scorsese has a writing credit on Silence along with former nominee Jay Cocks. Scorsese scripts are often nominated, and this passion project adaptation of a beloved novel should do well. Outside of that, this category suffers from most of its more obvious possible choices not being exceptionally great movies. I'm giving Hacksaw Ridge and Hidden Figures the nod because - spoilers - I have them as Best Picture nominees, with which a screenplay nomination usually runs in tandem. The fifth slot is nebulous to me.
Many pundits have the Denzel Washington-helmed Fences as a frontrunner for this category, but its eligibility is questionable to me because its writer, August Wilson, wrote the script over 10 years ago and is now dead. He also didn't write most of the version that has been released, with Tony Kushner doing much of the posthumous rewrites. I have other reservations about Fences being a major player for reasons I'll get into later. It definitely has a shot, so I've given it the fifth slot, but Nocturnal Animals, Sully, and Elle definitely stand to contest that.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
2. Silence (Martin Scorsese and Jay Cocks)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight and Robert Schenkkan)
4. Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi)
5. Fences (August Wilson's ghost)
Potential Spoilers:
6. Sully (Todd Komarnicki)
7. Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
8. Elle (David Birke)
9. Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)
10. Lion (Luke Davies)
11. Certain Women (Kelly Reichardt)
12. Live by Night (Ben Affleck)
Best Original Screenplay
In my mind, we have three locks in this category - Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and The Lobster. The latter was an outside choice for a longtime, but its unexpected win for Best Screenplay with the Los Angeles Film Critics Association shows that there is still goodwill to be had for this oddball dark romantic comedy in Hollywood even seven months after its limited release. It wouldn't be a completely bonkers nominee either - the Academy enjoys its share of well-crafted sardonic fantastical comedies about the human condition (see also: Her, Adaptation, etc.), and Yorgos Lanthimos was previously nominated in the Foreign Language Film category for his film Dogtooth. Moonlight and Manchester are pretty undeniable nominees though, and the latter will be taking home the win by the looks of things right now.
I have Chazelle nominated here for La La Land, though I'm weary of everyone's confidence that it will be nominated here. It's a major frontrunner to win Best Picture, and while it's not unprecedented, it's highly infrequent that a movie win Best Picture without a screenplay nomination (it hasn't happened in almost 20 years). That said, it's a musical, and those typically don't land in this category, and unlike the Adapted category, there are plenty of incredibly worthy stories vying for a prize here that the Academy would enjoy. While I'm edging out my guesses with Hell or High Water, which has become something of a sleeper hit after being nominated for Best Film by the NBR, the last two slots, in my opinion, are fairly open season. Once the WGA announces their nominees, we'll have a much clearer picture.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
2. Moonlight (Barry Jenkins and Tarrell Alvin McCraney)
3. The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou)
4. La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
5. Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
Potential Spoilers:
6. Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)
7. 20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
8. Loving (Jeff Nichols)
9. Zootopia (Byron Howard, Jared Bush, Rich Moore, Josie Trinidad, Jim Reardon, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee)
10. Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)
11. Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)
12. Hail, Caesar! (Joel and Ethan Coen)
13. Everybody Wants Some!! (Richard Linklater)
Outside Shots:
14. Eye in the Sky (Guy Hibbert)
15. I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)
16. Paterson (Jim Jarmusch)
17. American Honey (Andrea Arnold)
18. Cafe Society (Woody Allen)
Best Supporting Actress
We're in the big leagues, folks. The top three slots of this category are pretty safely locked up - Michelle Williams has one movie-stealing scene at the end of Manchester by the Sea that has been making waves with critics (she's also a three-time Oscar nominee already), Naomie Harris is one of about a dozen note-perfect performances as a drug addicted mother in Moonlight, and Paramount is following in the footsteps of The Danish Girl and Carol last year committing category fraud by campaigning clearly leading ladies as supporting characters (although it's a little more understandable this year, as Best Actress is incredibly tough) with Viola Davis playing opposite Denzel in the 1950s-set racial drama Fences.
The two most likely to me from there are Nicole Kidman for Lion, an indie drama about an Indian orphan that is on everyone's Oscar guess list despite lukewarm reviews and absolutely no representation with critics circles so far, with her performance being the only thing it seems anyone is willing to consistently praise this film for, and Janelle Monae for Hidden Figures. All of this is hinging on my hunch that Hidden Figures will be a commercial hit and enough of a crowd-pleaser to be a Best Picture threat. If Moonlight proves too outre, it would be a decent avenue for staving off #OscarsSoWhite criticisms for a third year in a row. That, and Monae is a talented performer that's having a successful year, and she's the sassiest of the women by the look of the trailers.
Notably, though, the frontrunner among critics circles so far has been Lily Gladstone for Certain Women. I've heard no buzz about this film beyond its great reception, but especially if SAG goes for her, she might be a surprise nominee. The remaining choices are really rather lightweight, so it seems like a six-way race to me.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis (Fences)
2. Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
3. Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
4. Nicole Kidman (Lion)
5. Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)
Potential Spoilers:
6. Lily Gladstone (Certain Women)
7. Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)
8. Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)
9. Molly Shannon (Other People)
10. Lupita Nyong'o (Queen of Katwe)
Outside Shots:
11. Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
12. Margo Martindale (The Hollars)
13. Rachel Weisz (The Light Between Oceans)
14. Teresa Palmer (Hacksaw Ridge)
Best Supporting Actor
As is typical with this category, this year's Best Supporting Actor race is all over the damn place. Mahershala Ali and Lucas Hedges seem to be the only true locks, but Jeff Bridges has a real shot with Hell or High Water (a very unexpected but deserved nod if it is one) after an impressive presence among critics and with the NBR. Liam Neeson is a safe bet for Silence (although the LAFCA gave the runner-up award to a Japanese actor in this film that may not have exposure until the movie is seen by regular audiences), and the Academy may want to reward Michael Shannon after snubbing him for 99 Homes - that is, if he gets another SAG nod this time around.
But outside of our two locks, it's mostly up in the air, and completely dependent on each actor's respective film's performance in other major categories. If the Academy likes Florence Foster Jenkins more than most people are expecting them to, expect Hugh Grant to be a very safe bet.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
2. Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
3. Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
4. Liam Neeson (Silence)
5. Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Potential Spoilers:
6. Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
7. Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)
8. Stephen Henderson (Fences)
9. Mykelti Williamson (Fences)
10. Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight)
11. Andre Holland (Moonlight)
12. Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash)
13. Dev Patel (Lion)
Outside Shots:
14. John Goodman (10 Cloverfield Lane)
15. Alden Ehrenreich (Hail, Caesar!)
16. Timothy Spall (Denial)
17. Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
18. Aaron Eckhart (Sully)
19. Peter Sarsgaard (Jackie)
20. Danny DeVito (The Comedian)
Best Actress
Unlike most years, this year's Best Actress race is incredibly competitive. There's almost twice as many potential nominees than there are nomination slots, and even some of the outside shots are not complete write-offs. The three locks, it seems, are Emma Stone, Natalie Portman, and Annette Bening, and from then on there are almost a dozen reasonable potential matchups for the bottom two slots. The most likely in mind are Isabelle Huppert, who is the biggest winner in critics circles so far, and Amy Adams for Arrival, just based on the goodwill for it. If Florence hits Oscar voters where they live, Streep is a strong potential spoiler, and Negga, Henson, and Chastain are likable performers whose respective films rest on their shoulders.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone (La La Land)
2. Natalie Portman (Jackie)
3. Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
4. Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
5. Amy Adams (Arrival)
Potential Spoilers:
6. Ruth Negga (Loving)
7. Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
8. Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
9. Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
10. Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers)
Outside Shots:
11. Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen)
12. Rachel Weisz (Denial)
13. Marion Cotillard (Allied)
14. Sally Field (Hello, My Name is Doris)
15. Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)
16. Rebecca Hall (Christine)
17. Sasha Lane (American Honey)
18. Susan Sarandon (The Meddler)
Best Actor
A rather lukewarm year for this category (the second such in a row), though that's not to say there are no great performances and are not many to choose from. Like Best Actress, we have three locks in my opinion - Casey Affleck (the favorite to win), Denzel Washington (one of few things said to truly shine about this film), and Tom Hanks (as a matter of career honors and makeup for Captain Phillips snub). I'm guessing Gosling is in because La La Land will be taking home many nominations most likely (and generally speaking, when the Academy really likes you, they start handing you nominations in categories no one even expected - think Tom Hardy for The Revenant last year). My fifth slot has Andrew Garfield for either Hacksaw Ridge or Silence, the former because I think that film's gonna get more nods than expected, or the latter if the Academy really loves it.
That slot could be filled by a small numbers of legitimate threats, though it's a six-way race at most before getting to some outside shots.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denzel Washington (Fences)
3. Tom Hanks (Sully)
4. Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
5. Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge or Silence)
Potential Spoilers:
6. Joel Edgerton (Loving)
7. Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
8. Michael Keaton (The Founder)
9. Adam Driver (Paterson)
10. Matthew McConaughey (Gold)
Outside Shots:
11. Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)
12. Ben Affleck (Live by Night)
13. Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)
14. Colin Farrell (The Lobster)
15. Robert DeNiro (The Comedian)
Best Director
In my estimation, we only have two true locks for nominations here - Barry Jenkins for Moonlight and Damien Chazelle for La La Land, the two frontrunners to win Best Picture at this point. Scorsese is a frequent favorite who gets nominated even for his less tight work, so a nod for him for Silence is likely, especially if it's as great as he's built it up to be. While Manchester is mostly an actors' piece, the film does have well-directed scenes in spades, and it's incredibly well-liked (its Best Picture win with the NBR is not nothing), so Lonergan could snatch a nomination. I personally think Denis Villenuve should and will get a nod for his work on Arrival, but there's a good case to be made as to why that's not happening.
Washington is an outside shot for Fences for a few reasons. For one, he's already nominated in the acting category. Second, the actors are the main points of praise for that film. Third, I don't think Fences has churned up enough genuine buzz outside of its performances and will be hitting theaters rather late, so I don't find it a particular Best Picture threat, and thus don't expect it to show up here. Mel Gibson and Pablo Larrain are the only true threats beyond that, most of the rest of the possibilities being outside shots.
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
2. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
3. Martin Scorsese (Silence)
4. Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
5. Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Potential Spoilers:
6. Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
7. Denzel Washington (Fences)
8. Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
Outside Shots:
9. Jeff Nichols (Loving)
10. David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
11. Garth Davis (Lion)
12. Clint Eastwood (Sully)
13. Ben Affleck (Live by Night)
14. Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
Best Picture
For those unaware, Best Picture can have between 5 and 10 nominations. It usually lands around eight, but I'm going nine in my guesses for now.
Our three definite locks are La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea, who have split Best Picture votes across precursor awards thus far, with La La Land having a slight edge. Silence, Arrival, and Jackie are all pretty safe bets in my opinion, but Sully, Hell or High Water, and Hacksaw Ridge all have good potential to gain traction as well. Hidden Figures would cap off a possible 10-film roster, with a few fairly lightweight films having a small chance to spoil that spot. Also, it's probably nothing, but the nomination of Patriots Day for Best Picture by NBR makes me think it might be a movie to keep an eye on for a possible late-period upset.
Locks:
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
Other Possible Nominations:
4. Silence
5. Arrival
6. Jackie
7. Sully
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Hell or High Water
Possible Tenth Nominations:
10. Hidden Figures
11. 20th Century Women
12. Live by Night
Outside Shots:
13. Patriots Day
14. Zootopia
15. The Lobster
16. The Founder
17. Elle
18. Toni Erdmann
19. Florence Foster Jenkins
20. A Monster Calls
21. Hail, Caesar!
22. The Jungle Book
23. Allied
There you have it, folks - my first set of predictions for the 2017 Oscar nominations, described in way too much depth. Stay tuned for my following updates to this list, as well as for reviews of the following films:
- Moana
- La La Land
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
