88th Academy Awards - Final Winner Predictions

The Oscars are now three days away. I was going to wait until Saturday or Sunday to put this list together, but I've been in my room for a day or two due to health and studying, so I have time on my hands, and also am planning on actually doing shit this weekend, and I don't see any of the major frontrunners changing in the next three days (I guess it could happen), so I'm just gonna get it in now. So, with the exception of a few outliers, if you look on sites like GoldDerby, you'll probably find me singing the same tune as most experts, pundits, and predictors as to what will probably win, namely regarding director, actor, actress, screenplays, and a few technicals. But what can I say? These things become frontrunners because of industry talking heads' rumors as well as demonstrable precedent and precursor evidence, and many of them are hard to argue. I'll be providing my predicted runners-up (as well as my personal picks), but yeah, for the most part my predictions are in line with most people's. But remember, there are always upsets in the Oscars that are by definition unpredictable, and this has been a notoriously rule- and precedent-breaking awards season, so anything can happen. I'll be going from the big categories and working my way down, leaving no category out of conversation. This is the quintessential Oscar post, children. Let's start this shit.
If you need to be reminded of the nominees, here's the full list.

Best Picture

You can find my detailed thoughts on each of the Best Picture nominees in my last post. Now, for the last few months, this has weirdly been the most unpredictable category this year, which is nearly never the case. Usually, every year that there isn't one clear winner in everyone's mind, we can usually narrow it down to two major possibilities - last year it was between Birdman and Boyhood, the year before it was 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. But this year, there are not two, not three, but four films that you could make the case for their Best Picture win (and arguably five) - The Revenant, The Big Short, Spotlight, and Mad Max: Fury Road, with Room being the outlier fifth (even though I listed it fourth most likely in my last post). 

The Big Short has a Producer's Guild Award win under its built, which is historically a big indicator of the Best Picture winner. Spotlight has a Writer's Guild of America Award win, as well as tons of critical praise and goodwill and a Screen Actors Guild Ensemble Award win, another relatively good indicator. Mad Max won big with critics' circles late last year but was shut out by several guilds, as was Room, however both of these two films could come from behind and surprise with enough number two or number three votes in the Academy's odd Best Picture voting system. However, right now, the frontrunner is The Revenant, after a Golden Globe and BAFTA Best Picture win, a win for Inarritu at the Director's Guild Awards, and unanimous praise for Leo from critics and guilds. It'd be the first time in history for a director to direct two back-to-back Best Picture winners, but it looks like Inarritu just might be the first to do it. I'm not a huge fan of the movie (it's my least favorite of the nominees), but it's a technical achievement for sure.

Will Win: The Revenant

Could Win: Spotlight or The Big Short or Room OR (in a blue moon) Mad Max: Fury Road 

Should Win: I'd be fine with almost any of them, but my choice is a tie between Room and Mad Max

Should've Been Here: Ex Machina (weird to see it excluded after its PGA nomination)

Best Director

There was a decent amount of time that George Miller was thought to be the frontrunner for both the DGA and the Oscar for Best Director for his flawless direction of Mad Max: Fury Road, which has earned the designation by many critics as one of the greatest action films of all-time, a loaded moniker that I actually agree with. However, Inarritu came from behind and won his second consecutive DGA Award earlier in February to the surprise of some for his work on The Revenant. Not always, but the DGA winner is usually a fair indicator of the Oscar winner, with the most recent exception being Ben Affleck for Argo, for which he wasn't nominated at the Oscars. Miller would be an upset, but a worthy and understandable one in my opinion. In terms of outside shots, I'd say Adam McKay is your best bet for outliers, followed by Abrahamson after his surprise nomination for his brilliant direction of Room. As well as his probable Best Picture winner, Alejandro G. Inarritu, if he wins Best Director, will be the first Mexican and the second non-white person to win the award twice (the other person of color to do so being Ang Lee, who won for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi).

Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant)

Could Win: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Should Win: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Should've Been Here: J.J. Abrams (Star Wars: The Force Awakens) - yeah I'm going with the nerd choice here. I thought TFA was far and away Abrams's best effort yet.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

If you need any proof that Academy predictability remains as strong as ever, just look at the Best Actor races of the last five years. Let's not pretend that these aren't good performances (I won't go as far to say "great" for some of them), but the Oscar-ness of these winning roles is amazing - an old Hollywood type (The Artist), a historical figure (Lincoln), an AIDS victim (Dallas Buyers Club), a person with a disability (The Theory of Everything), and now a super physically challenging manly man who's spent months of press time talking about the horror stories of his performance. Leo was the frontrunner to win the second the trailer for this movie came out, and while a few fringe pundits are predicting a surprise upset by Cranston or Fassbender, I'm going to put my cards in with the overwhelming majority of talking heads and say that Leo's massive presence at precursor awards and critics' circles has finally put the odds in his favor. Again, I'm not super into the movie or Leo's performance for that matter (although the other performances in this category are pretty lightweight), but if it kills the Leo Oscar meme for good, I can get behind it.

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)

Could Win: hell freezes over and the internet implodes
Should Win: out of these, I suppose Leo
Should've Been Here: Jacob Tremblay (Room) - campaigned as supporting, but he is undoubtedly a lead and one of the best performances of the entire year

Best Actress in a Leading Role

This is an undisputed frontrunner I can get behind. I haven't put together my top 10 films of 2015 list yet, but this movie is most likely going to end up somewhere in the top 5. I adored this film, and Brie Larson is a good portion of why, in addition to Tremblay, Abrahamson's brilliant direction, and Emma Donoghue's thought-provoking script. Larson's performance is incredibly grounded and believable, and so non-flashy that it's amazing this award will be presented five minutes after rewarding the biggest awards ploy since last year's Best Actor winner. Between this, Cate Blanchett in Carol, Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn, and some of the great female roles that weren't nominated this year, say what you will about the Academy's recognition of women, but this year at least, they've recognized far more interesting female roles than male ones. An upset is an incredibly slim chance, and I think Larson's got this shit locked down after her impressive precursor sweep.

Will Win: Brie Larson (Room)

Could Win: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

Should Win: Brie Larson (Room)

Should've Been Here: Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road) or Emily Blunt (Sicario)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Supporting Actor, as has been the case the last few years, was incredibly crowded during nominee guessing, and while most of the predicted nominees ended up making a showing, this one is still pretty out there. Don't get me wrong, Sylvester Stallone is definitely the frontrunner for Creed, but I can see a lot of cases being made for any of the other nominees, namely Tom Hardy for The Revenant and Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies. Hardy was easily my favorite thing about The Revenant, but this is a comparably lightweight performance in the context of his filmography (which is really impressive on his part) and he's gotten no guild love, but he is in two Best Picture nominees this year and is respected, even if the Academy is just now getting wind of him. Rylance is a favorite among actors due to his past stage success and has routinely gotten nominations (but very few wins) for this film, and while his performance is serviceable and his character is fun, I found him overshadowed by Tom Hanks and Spielberg's direction personally. So, I'm going with Stallone, considering they love mentor roles in this category and also enjoy awarding old legends who don't have a statue yet, as well as comeback roles. That, and Stallone gives a great performance and is a really likable dude.

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Could Win: Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
Should Win: Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight) - my second favorite performance in my fourth favorite movie of the year
Should've Been Here: Oscar Isaac (Ex Machina) or Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) OR Benicio del Toro (Sicario), man there were so many good ones this year

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

I'm kind of mad that Alicia Vikander is the frontrunner for The Danish Girl for this award for a few reasons: 1) I don't even think this is her best performance this year, 2) she's got such a great career ahead of her and I don't want them to spoil it with an immediate Oscar win a la Redmayne last year, and 3) from the little bit I saw of The Danish Girl (I haven't finished it), I didn't like it much, though her performance was the best thing about it from what I could tell. Regardless, she's done well with guilds and precursors, however I'm still going to take a wild guess that she'll be upset by Rooney Mara for Carol. While I'll admit that Kate Winslet is the more likely upset, it feels like the right time for Mara, they may want to forgive her blatant category fraud, and she gives a great, great performance. They also like Carol more than The Danish Girl, with six nominations over four for the latter, as well as much better guild performance for the former. They do like newcomer awards (Mara's already been nominated) and Sad Wives™, but sometimes you gotta follow your gut and go against the grain. I'm going to take a chance with this win and pick my fave of the nominees as the winner. DON'T LET ME DOWN ROONEY.

Will Win: Rooney Mara (Carol)

Could Win: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) or Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Should Win: Rooney Mara (Carol)

Should've Been Here: Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)

Best Original Screenplay

Some people criticize Spotlight for being really straightforward and procedural, and while I admit that it essentially is just the best-acted feature-length episode of CSI ever, if this film and Mad Max can tell us anything, it's that complexity is not always as important as simply telling your story well. Great dialogue, interesting characters, and close historical accuracy make this a worthy frontrunner for best screenplay, coming from an organization that loves wordy thrillers. The WGA Award essentially nipped this one in the bud, so I see very little wiggle room for outliers, but if there is an upset, Pixar's Inside Out seems like the most likely, as the Academy loves Pixar and it's been praised across the board, with the other nominees in this category being under-represented in respective screenplay categories at precursor awards (which has resulted in one of the most unique and interesting screenplay lineups in a while, really). This looks like Spotlight's to win, though.

Will Win: Spotlight

Could Win: Inside Out

Should Win: Spotlight (though I'd be more than cool with Ex Machina)

Should've Been Here: Tangerine

Best Adapted Screenplay

Both of the screenplay frontrunners prominently feature people in an office arguing about things. I didn't pick these pictures for any funny juxtaposition purposes; these are the first non-poster images that come up on Google. But I digress. In what is still to me one of the strangest Best Picture frontrunners ever, the director of Anchorman has brought us a financial dramedy that seems to be sweeping precursor awards, and with its WGA win, it seems pretty locked up at this point. The way this film flip-flops between documentary and just straight narrative style was jarring to me, but I have to give credit where it's due that this movie brings an important issue to light in a unique way, and while it's not my favorite of the nominees for either picture or screenplay, I do recommend that people check it out. There aren't many credible outliers at this point, but Room seems like the most likely upset.

Will Win: The Big Short

Could Win: Room 

Should Win: Room

Should've Been Here: Steve Jobs 

Best Original Score

There are always like five worthy nominees that get snubbed in this category, but musical taste is incredibly subjective and the Oscars music branch is notoriously difficult to predict, which is why guessing their nominees for score and song is a fucking nightmare. Once a frontrunner germinates, though, it's a pretty straight shot. Therefore, it seems the Academy will finally give its first competitive award win to storied Western composer Ennio Morricone in his work for The Hateful Eight. I haven't seen it, but I have listened to Morricone's score, and it's good enough. None of these nominees are my first choice for best score of the year, though there are some good ones. I can't see much room for upsets other than John Williams (this is his 50th nomination!) for Star Wars, but I'm guessing that movie will be scoring elsewhere, and really, it'd be a weird prize, seeing as how, as much as I loved The Force Awakens, it is arguably the weakest score of the series.

Will Win: The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)

Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (John Williams)

Should Win: you know what, I'm going with Sicario (Johann Johannson). Shit was good.
Should've Been Here: Mad Max: Fury Road (Tom Holkenborg) or The Revenant (Ryuichi Sakamoto and Alva Noto) or Steve Jobs (Daniel Pemberton) OR Inside Out (Michael Giacchino) and probably a million fucking others

Best Original Song

Man, am I the only one who thinks this category recently has been pretty fucking boring? Especially this year. This year's frontrunner is Lady Gaga's song "Til It Happens to You" from the Kirby Dick documentary The Hunting Ground about rape on college campuses, followed by the equally cheery "Writing's on the Wall" by Sam Smith from Spectre, only the fifth James Bond theme to be nominated and really not even within the top 5 really. This is a pretty weak set of nominees here this year, though I guess it is interesting to mention that this is the first year in Oscar history that two documentaries have been nominated in non-documentary categories (The Hunting Ground and Chasing Extinction), both of which were not nominated for best documentary. Anyway, yeah, Lady Gaga's getting an Oscar. Moving on.

Will Win: "Til It Happens to You" (The Hunting Ground)
Could Win: "Writing's on the Wall" (Spectre)
Should Win: I don't fucking care
Should've Been Here: "Go Head" (Dope) or "See You Again" (Furious 7)

Best Animated Feature Film

With the exception of 2010's Toy Story 3, this decade's winners in this award have been pretty weak, and Inside Out will probably be the best winner of the 2010s (Big Hero 6 is apparently really good though). There's basically no other frontrunner here, and the next up behind Inside Out is a real stretch. I actually haven't seen the other three nominees since the Academy came out of left field with some surprising foreign nominations, and while I definitely consider Anomalisa the much better film, I understand Inside Out's appeal and really like the film myself. I also know that the Academy loves Pixar and that this was pretty much a lock since June 20th of last year. It's Pixar's to win yet again unless there are some serious fans of Charlie Kaufman or Aardman that are waiting to speak up.

Will Win: Inside Out

Could Win: Anomalisa (huge long shot)

Should Win: Anomalisa

Should've Been Here: apparently The Prophet was pretty good

Best Foreign Language Film

Son of Saul was the frontrunner to win this pretty much the second it premiered at film festivals. I haven't seen any of the foreign nominees due to my being in America which doesn't give a fuck about foreign releases, and while I was more excited for the inexplicably ineligible wuxia film The Assassin, I was looking forward to seeing this film and will enjoy watching it when it's probably on Netflix in like five months. I have little input here except that this has been destroying precursor awards and is the European answer to Schindler's List, so I'm going with the crowd here. Congrats in advance to Hungary for their first Oscar win!

Will Win: Son of Saul

Could Win: Is there another one about a war? Oh, there's literally one called A War. Yeah, sure, that. They love war.
Should Win: I'd feel bad acting like I have an opinion here
Should've Been Here: The Assassin, assuming it's as amazing as everyone that didn't give an award to Son of Saul says it is

Best Documentary Feature

Addiction? Troubled person with "demons"? Music? Controversial breaches of privacy/journalistic ethics? Yeah, this is a documentary frontrunner for sure. Asif Kapadia's Amy Winehouse biodoc Amy has been absolutely dominating precursor awards, and it seems likely to repeat its success here. There are few upsets in these "smaller" categories, so expect this one to pick up the trophy. Haven't seen this movie yet (I've been way off my grind with documentaries this year, and all the nominees this year sound interesting), but I love Amy Winehouse and am a doc fan, so I'll probably check it out, at which point I can better weigh in on this race.

Will Win: Amy

Could Win: any of them, but my guess is The Look of Silence

Should Win: *shrug*
Should've Been Here: Call Me Lucky (I might write a review of this movie because it's so amazing, but it'll be on my top 10 list fo sho)

Best Short Subject Documentary

Again, it's difficult to ignore frontrunners in these kinds of categories, and there is usually little room for upsets due to shorts' various vocal fans being restricted to those that get nominated. If more industry talking heads reported on shorts, the conversation for these categories would be way more interesting. That being said, Body Team 12, a short documentary about the crews of medical professionals quarantining victims of the Ebola virus in West Africa, has been the frontrunner since forever, as the Academy loves short medical/epidemic docs (and documentaries dealing with hot-button issues, even though Zika has since overthrown Ebola in the public eye). It's also premiering on HBO in March! I'm gonna try to check it out.

Will Win: Body Team 12
I'll just skip the others because we all know I know nothing here

Best Live Action Short Film

Pretty straightforward. Whatever catches wind as the frontrunner is what typically gets it. This one is about nuns, and the Academy kinda likes religion I guess. All I know is there is apparently support for Shok to upset, but for now, I'm going with the flow and sticking with Ave Maria.

Will Win: Ave Maria

Could Win: Shok

Should Win: the video of my friend confusing Cameron Diaz with Carmen San Diego

Best Animated Short Film

This year's frontrunner for animated short is Sanjay's Super Team, which premiered alongside The Good Dinosaur. Now I didn't see that movie, but apparently this short is a ton of fun. That said, I'm gonna go with the underdog World of Tomorrow for the following reasons: 1) For some reason the winner in this category is usually the only one I see, 2) Don Hertzfeldt has been nominated in the past and passed up and they may want to honor his genius body of work, 3) it apparently has quite the vocal fanbase, and 4) sometimes you gotta go against the grain and pick one that you believe in instead of going with the frontrunners. My logic is that there's always at least three or four upsets per Oscars, so your guesses should reflect that in hopes that the odds work in your favor. Sidenote: World of Tomorrow is brilliant and currently on Netflix and you should definitely watch it if you've got 20 minutes to spare (I also recommend everything Hertzfeldt has ever done).

Will Win: World of Tomorrow

Could Win: Sanjay's Super Team

Should Win: World of Tomorrow

Should've Been Here: I dunno, that volcano short in front of Inside Out was cute

Best Visual Effects

Wow, finally done with that dumb shit, AM I RIGHT? This is actually a pretty awesome lineup of nominees here this year, highlighting a lot of varying levels of use of VFX. Now, in my eyes, Mad Max and Star Wars have almost completely equal odds to win this one, but I'm going to give Star Wars the edge due to the effects branch's weird love for CGI-centric effects, this franchise's history with the award, and the fact that Mad Max will be making a good showing in the other tech categories. I'd say behind them is The Revenant, which primarily got this nomination for the achievements of one scene, but I'll be damned if it's not a deserving one.

Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Should've Been Here: Furious 7, but really I'm incredibly happy with this lineup

Best Cinematography

This has been Chivo's to win since the beginning. Emmanuel Lubezki, after a decade and a half of being largely ignored for his stunning camerawork, is set to be the first cinematographer (and I believe the first person ever, but don't quote me on that) to win three Oscars in a row, after winning for Gravity and Birdman. The cinematography is certainly the best technical aspect of this film, with Lubezki's use of natural light and minimal CGI matte use making for some truly astounding vista shots. John Seale came out of retirement to shoot Mad Max, and he's got an outside shot, but most will agree this is Lubezki's to lose. Unrelated: Lubezki has an Instagram that's pretty awesome if you like his style.

Will Win: The Revenant (Emmanuel Lubezki)

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (John Seale)

Should Win: eh, The Revenant, or Sicario (Roger Deakins)

Should've Been Here: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dan Mindel) or Room (Danny Cohen) or Tangerine (Sean Baker) OR Creed (Maryse Alberti)

Best Film Editing

Get ready for a lot of "Mad Max will probably take it, but The Revenant could also" in these technical categories. With both of these movies being rigorously crafted epic technical marvels with high nomination counts, there's gonna be a lot of conversation-sharing between the two. For me, we have three possibilities with almost equal odds in Margaret Sixel for Mad Max, Stephen Mirrione for The Revenant (who should've won last year for Birdman despite not being even fucking nominated), and Hank Corwin for the bafflingly praised The Big Short, which holds an ACE Eddie Award win over The Revenant, as does Mad Max. Because of this and the fact that the Academy prefers action to comedies in tech categories, I'm going with Mad Max. Fun fact: if Miller wins director and Sixel wins editing, I believe it'll be the first time that a husband and wife both win Oscars in one year. Wouldn't that be cute?

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (Margaret Sixel)
Could Win: The Big Short (Hank Corwin)

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (Margaret Sixel)
Should've Been Here: The Martian (Pietro Scalia) or Creed (Claudia Costello and Michael P. Shaver)

Best Production Design

This one is Mad Max's to lose by my estimation. Colin Gibson and co. have done an immaculate job creating a living, breathing world out of these incredibly intricately detailed war vehicles for George Miller's crazy post-apocalyptic wasteland. The film's best triumph in terms of production design is that everything in the film was not only visually spectacular, but also fully functional. Jack Fisk's work on The Revenant is minimal due to the mostly real-life wilderness settings of the film, and the pinnacle of his achievements (the two or three base camps), while excellently done, are not at the forefront of the picture. That said, with comparatively lightweight competition, Revenant seems to be the upset for this one. But it still seems that Gibson has this one in the bag.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road 

Could Win: The Revenant 

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road 

Should've Been Here: Star Wars: The Force Awakens 

Best Costume Design

Interesting double nomination for veteran costume genius Sandy Powell for Carol and Cinderella. Weirdly enough, GoldDerby currently has Mad Max as the frontrunner to win here, and while I do think the costume work in that movie is excellent, I can't see the Academy getting fully behind it. The Academy passed on the last Disney reboot nominated in this category (Maleficent), so I'm guessing it'll either go to Carol or The Danish Girl. I'm going to guess The Danish Girl here because I gave Mara the edge of Vikander, and because I expect that Powell's double-nom will have them splitting votes. I can see a good case for four out of the five nominees though, really.

Will Win: The Danish Girl

Could Win: Carol or Cinderella 

Should Win: Cinderella

Should've Been Here: Dope

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Again, this is one that seems like Mad Max's to win but could easily be taken by The Revenant. I'm betting that they ignore The 100-Year-Old Man Who Starred in a Movie with a Title That's Way Too Fucking Long, so I'm pitting the race squarely between those two, and with that in mind, I'm giving the edge to Mad Max for creativity's sake. The Revenant has some excellent beards and battle wounds, though. Also, why does this category still only have three nomination slots when makeup is used in literally every live action movie ever?

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Should've Been Here: The Danish Girl or Mr. Holmes 

Best Sound Mixing

And finally, the sound categories. Both of these seem like Mad Max's to lose, but AGAIN, The Revenant could easily steal it. At this point, I'm expecting The Revenant to either perform exactly as predicted or grossly overperform, the latter of which would be incredibly annoying. I will say that Mad Max has a stronger lock on sound editing than mixing, so if there was a technical for Revenant to steal from it, it'd be here. The Revenant does sound really nice, but pop in the Mad Max Blu-Ray and put it on surround sound and try not to melt, I dare you.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Should've Been Here: Straight Outta Compton

Best Sound Editing

Of the two sound categories, sound editing (design) seems to be the better bet for Mad Max. It's the upset where I have disagreement with the experts - I actually think the next biggest possibility isn't The Revenant, but Star Wars. The franchise has done incredibly well in the sound categories, and the sound design in the film is nostalgic, creative, and brilliant. Think about it - with the birth of BB-8, we now have an all-new vocabulary of robotic beeps! Anyway, I'm guessing Mad Max takes this one.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (I'd be cool with Star Wars though)

Should've Been Here: Jurassic World (I'll admit, it sounds great) or Ex Machina or Turbo Kid (not even anywhere near the Oscars' radar, but it's a standout element of the movie fo sho)

And there you have it, kids, my in-depth discussion of each of the categories at this year's Oscars and who I think will win. Come back Sunday night to see how many I got wrong in the most unpredictable awards season ever (which the Academy has been weirdly using as part of their ad campaign?). Favorites of the year and reviews for movies I haven't seen yet are coming whenever.

UPDATE (2/26/2016 5:45 PM): I've since changed my prediction for Best Supporting Actress to Alicia Vikander. I'm leaving the original post how it is, but I've heard lots of compelling arguments and she seems to have this one in the bag. I may also put Bear Story ahead of World of Tomorrow for animated short, but for right now it's the same. So, when you're tallying up how bad I suck on Oscar night, keep this in consideration.